One doesn’t have to be a partisan liberal to see what the Trump campaign itself is seeing—Democrats are currently on the path to victory this November. It’s not a guaranteed path! Nothing will be won without an all-out effort on our part. No one will ever take anything for granted, ever again, after learning our lesson in 2016.
But by every objective measure, it’s so much better to be a Democrat than that corrupt, self-dealing, amoral lump of death-wishers in the Republican Party.
1. Impeached President Donald Trump is not well-liked.
Those approval ratings are abysmal for a sitting president—he is -12 net approval in Arizona, -5 in Florida, -8 in Georgia, -11 in Michigan, -7 in North Carolina, -7 in Pennsylvania, and -5 in Wisconsin.
Now, we don’t have to pretend that Joe Biden is any more popular. He isn’t—he hasn’t fully unified the party or given young voters a reason to join his bandwagon (which is why Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren would be such a good VP pick). But even today, he crushes Donald Trump in the battle of the “double haters.”
In 2016, impeached president Donald Trump won the 18% of voters who disliked both him and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 47-30, according to the exit polls. This year, the double haters are overwhelmingly going Biden.
Civiqs:
Among the 14% of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Biden, 40% would vote for Biden, 7% would vote for Trump, and 53% say they would vote for a different candidate, or are unsure.
Monmouth University:
Among those who view both Biden and Trump unfavorably, Biden leads 59 percent to 17 percent.
Suffolk University:
A Suffolk University poll that showed Biden with a 50 percent to 40 percent edge among all voters pegged his advantage among those unfavorable voters at 44 percent to 9 percent, while 31 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate. Given the option of a head-to-head match-up, Biden's advantage expanded to a 55 percent to 17 percent gap.
2. Trump is losing older voters
On top of that, white voters over the age of 65—the most reliable voters, and a 58-39 Trump demographic in 2016—are having doubts about Trump, dropping five net points during the pandemic. The drop is particularly pronounced among older white independent voters:
Those older independent white voters have dropped from 61-36 Trump approvals, to 54-42 today—a net 13-point drop. Damn.
Trump’s campaign knows it’s losing ground among seniors. That’s why it finally convinced Trump to stop doing his daily coronavirus PR stunts. “[S]eniors are also the most vulnerable to the global pandemic, and the campaign’s internal polls, people familiar with the numbers said, show Mr. Trump’s support among voters over the age of 65 softening to a concerning degree, as he pushes to reopen the country’s economy at the expense of stopping a virus that puts them at the greatest risk,” reported The New York Times. This isn ‘t just Civiqs polling showing the slide. Trump’s people know they are in trouble.
In fact, this slide among seniors is why Trump threatened to sue his campaign manager Brad Parscale, until Parscale showed up at the White House with “more favorable” (read: doctored) numbers to calm him down. Or, as The New York Times reported, “Mr. Parscale showed Mr. Trump new campaign polling data in which the president’s standing had climbed, according to a person familiar with the visit.” Because yes, his standing “had climbed” overnight …
3. Trump is weak in the battleground states
Trump managed an electoral straight-flush by eking out minuscule victories in Michigan (11,000 votes out of ~4.5 million cast), Pennsylvania (44,000 votes out of almost 6 million cast), and Wisconsin (23,000 votes out of ~2.8 million cast). He won Florida by just 1.2%, Arizona by 3.5%, and North Carolina by about 3.6%.
We don’t need to see big shifts to recapture these states, and we’re already seeing Biden lead in all the public polling in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Most polling in Arizona has Biden ahead, and Georgia appears split down the middle. Heck, even Ohio appears to be competitive (even if I, personally, don’t buy it).
4. The House isn’t in play
Not even Republicans think they can retake the House, and this is their last chance before redistricting chops away major advantages in states they dominated after their 2010 wave victories. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party committee tasked with winning House races, has outraised its Republican counterpart by $44 million.
Despite having won a massive 43 seats in 2018, many of them in Trump districts, there’s a real chance that Democrats grow their majority. “The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that Democrats have enough money that they can be on offense,” said one veteran GOP consultant to Politico. “A lot of that has to do with how much pressure we can put on Democratic incumbents, and so that’s why recruiting failures anywhere are not ideal.”
Money, great candidates, and a shifting suburban landscape mean the Democrats have the firepower to go on the offensive against a hapless House GOP. "Trump is is causing change in the coalitions of the two major parties across the country, as white working class voters who used to vote Democrat increasingly vote Republican and college educated, sort of, economically comfortable suburban women move to the Democratic Party," Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University, told ABC News. Suburbs still held by Republicans will be fierce 2020 House battlegrounds.
In our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats have maintained a steady 6- to 8-point advantage.
That 50-44 Democratic advantage? That was the exact same number Civiqs had on Election Day 2018. On that question, nothing has changed, and that’s great news for the big Democratic majority.
5. The Senate is in play
Democrats need to pick up a net-three seats and the White House for a 50-50 majority (with the VP tiebreaker). It is all but conceded that Democrats will lose Sen. Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama. That was a short-term rental, a gift, won in a special election against a creepy child-molesting Republican. And even then, Jones barely won. That means Democrats need four seats.
As in the House, Democratic candidates are dramatically outraising their Republican counterparts. It’s not even close. (Though the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the party committee tasked with winning Senate races, is slightly behind its Republican counterpart.)
Democrats are all but assured of picking up a seat in Colorado, and lead in Arizona, Maine, and North Carolina. There, that’s four. Assuming we win the White House, that’s the majority. But it sure would be nice to have a majority that didn’t depend on West Virginia conservative Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin or Arizona’s obnoxious Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Colorado’s next likely senator, former governor John Hickenlooper, may also turn out to be a pain in the caucus’ side.
Luckily, there’s a strong second-tier of races—both senate seats in Georgia (including a special election) should follow the presidential campaign and be competitive. Popular Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock was a recruiting coup for Democrats, and he should make this otherwise red seat competitive (as the scant polling in the state suggests). We have exactly one poll of Iowa’s race (it’s tied!), but both parties have reserved a crap-ton of television advertising for the summer and fall. That wouldn’t be happening if the parties weren’t seeing the same thing in their internal data.
And there’s even a third tier, which includes potentially competitive races in Kansas and Texas.
Given that Republicans are defending two-thirds of the seats from the class of 2014—a good Republican year—means that yes, it’s natural that Democrats should be on the offensive. But it still has come as a shock to Senate Republicans that they’re fighting for their lives, and efforts to distance themselves from a sinking Trump have proven hilariously unsuccessful. No way Trump gives them any breathing space.
Conclusion
From the presidential race, to the House, to the Senate, the numbers all look great for Democrats, and that’s today, before we even account for the fallout from Trump's horrific response to the pandemic—which may cause tens of thousands more coronavirus deaths, and tens of millions more jobs lost.
There is a lot of time left until Election Day, but not as much time as you might think—it’s just five-and-a-half months away. Enough time that so much can happen (even if the pandemic sucks up all the oxygen), but close enough that we can have a real sense of the state of play.
No one is taking this election for granted. We only win if we work our assess off and take nothing for granted.
But it’s always better to play the game with the strongest players, the most motivated fans, and the most righteous messaging. We have truth on our side, while they’re devolving into QAnon conspiracy theories to keep their disparate core of deplorable hopeful and engaged.
Be happy about where we stand today, and then let’s fucking close this year strong, making sure Trump and his party have little chance to make up their lost ground. Sound like a plan?