Florida is like no other US state. But it is a lot like Australia. Similar populations, mostly wealthy, well-educated and either employed or comfortably retired, but with significant racial minorities and pockets of poverty.
So why has Australia lost six victims so far this month to coronavirus while Florida has lost 608? A hundred times more. Why are total deaths in Australia now at 98 while Florida is at 1,876? And counting.
Comparing like with like
Citizens in both places live within easy reach of the coast, and experience comparable sub tropical climatic zones, susceptible to regular weather extremes.
Both populations enjoy liberal democratic political systems with strong representation by elected officials. Both boast extensive and advanced hospital and health care networks.
Both places are a long way from the early epicentres – Wuhan, Lombardy and New York. Both had time to see what was coming.
Comparing these two places may help understand the strategies which worked and those which didn’t. It also enables quantification of the disastrous outcomes of incompetence.
But first, a few more factual observations.
Australia, population 25.5 million, now has 584 active cases, or 22.9 per million inhabitants. Florida, population 22.0 million, now has 33,955 active cases, or 1,543 per million. That is 67 times higher.
Australia’s deaths per million are now 3.8, Florida’s rate is up to 85.3. That is 22 times higher.
Quantifying the unnecessary deaths
Australia proves that mass deaths from the virus are not inevitable. So do New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Slovakia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Uruguay. All were heavily impacted by the virus early, but now have new cases under control. All kept deaths per million below 5.6.
If Florida had taken the same precautions as Australia and those other developed countries, it is reasonable to expect infection and death rates would be comparable. That is, deaths below 5.6 per million. Simple algebra yields the result that 6.6 per cent were arguably inevitable, but 93.4 per cent were preventable.
That means 1,752 of those who have died would still be with us had the USA and Florida taken the same preventative measures as Australia and other comparable places. And 934 of the next 1,000 who are doomed to depart will do so needlessly.
Outcomes follow actions
It is not difficult to identify the steps taken by “successful” developed countries outside Europe which the USA did not take.
Many were identified in this week’s testimony before Congress by sacked leader of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority Dr Rick Bright. Summarised from here, they include:
* refusal to heed early warnings from abroad,
* refusal to listen to expert advice from within the US health care system,
* punishing those seeking to implement a timely strategy,
* lying to the American people about the pandemic,
* failing to provide enough tests soon enough,
* failing to produce adequate medical equipment soon enough,
* refusing to get samples of the virus necessary for work on vaccines and therapeutics,
* prioritising contracts for companies connected to Trump or to the Kushner family,
* failure to implement enforceable social distancing and face protection rules,
* failure of federal leaders to practice safe social distancing and face protection,
And, most damningly,
* failing to formulate a coordinated national response.
At one point, Dr Bright quoted a colleague: “We are in deep shit”. Thousands of families in Florida will agree with that analysis.