Only one state currently meets even the White House’s lax standards for reopening businesses, but a whole lot more states are relaxing their shutdowns in the coming days. A dozen states are set to loosen restrictions between May 15 and 18, which means we can look for new COVID-19 outbreaks one to two weeks later.
Some states are going county by county, with the hardest-hit counties staying shut down while others gradually reopen. And many of the states that are beginning to reopen are maintaining many restrictions, like caps on how many people can be in a newly reopened business. Nonetheless, all of these moves toward a reopening that the state-by-state numbers do not merit brings to mind Dr. Anthony Fauci’s warning to the Senate that reopening too early brings “a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control,” and with it, “some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery.”
What difference does it make? Well, according to a new study, social distancing can cut the spread of coronavirus cases by up to 9% per day. Without shelter-in-place orders, there could have been 10 times greater spread by April 27, and if you add in other measures like large event bans and school and business closures, the spread could have been 35 times greater. But hey, let’s reopen before the guidelines say it’s safe!
It’s happening in state after state. In Louisiana, some businesses and organizations, including churches, gyms, barbershops and salons, casinos, and theaters can open Friday with 25% occupancy limits. New Mexico, similarly, will allow retail stores, offices, and call centers to open at 25% occupancy, while big box and large retail stores will be capped at 20%. Minnesota will allow 50% occupancy at some businesses starting Monday, even as the state’s hospitalizations are still rising in the state as a whole and some counties are seeing cases double every seven to 14 days.
Some Washington, D.C.-adjacent counties in Virginia and Maryland will remain shut down while other parts of those states begin reopening. In D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser has extended a stay-at-home order through June 8, but that kind of responsible behavior is not the norm in the nation.
We are so screwed.