I’ve been saying that there are seven presidential battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Six of the seven are obvious and long-standing battlegrounds. But … Georgia? Yes. Georgia.
The latest numbers are courtesy of Civiqs for Daily Kos:
|
All |
Urban |
Suburban |
Rural |
| Trump |
47 |
31 |
43 |
67 |
| Biden |
48 |
63 |
52 |
27 |
Can you believe that impeached president Donald Trump won Georgia suburbs in 2016? The reason presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is winning in 2020 and Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 is the suburbs.
According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won rural Georgia 67-29, which is virtually identical to what this poll found. Clinton won urban Georgia 68-29, again within rough range of Civiqs’ findings. But those suburban numbers! That’s the new ball game, going from Trump 51-46 in 2016 to 52-43 Biden in this poll—a 14-point swing.
It was massive shifts in the suburbs that delivered the House to Nancy Pelosi in 2018. It was that shift that delivered the Virginia legislature, and governors in red Louisiana and Kentucky in 2019. And it’s those suburbs that have made Georgia so competitive in 2020.
|
All |
Women |
Men |
18-34 |
35-49 |
50-64 |
65+ |
| Trump |
47 |
41 |
54 |
34 |
40 |
51 |
62 |
| Biden |
48 |
54 |
41 |
54 |
56 |
45 |
36 |
Look at that 26-point gender gap!
As for ages, we don’t have an exact age match (the 2016 exit polls are 18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+), but we know that Biden appears to be underperforming among young voters, something we’ve seen in plenty of polling already. That means that if and when Biden brings those votes home, his margin could be padded a little.
Among voters 65+, we’ve gone from 67-31 Trump in 2016 to 62-36 in this poll—from +36 Trump to +26. That’s a 10-point net drop. Perhaps these older voters don’t care to be cannon fodder in Trump’s war for Wall Street?
|
All |
white |
Black |
Hispanic |
non-college |
college |
| Trump |
47 |
68 |
6 |
39 |
54 |
36 |
| Biden |
48 |
25 |
92 |
59 |
40 |
60 |
As bad as Biden’s numbers look among whites, that’s actually a real improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers—believe it or not—when Trump won whites 75-21. Meanwhile, Biden is improving over Clinton’s 89-9 Black performance in 2016!
Like most of the South, being a Democrat is being Black. Black Democrats are 25% of the state. White Democrats are about 5% of Georgians. Meanwhile, 95% of all Republicans are white.
Education, like in 2016, is a key factor in partisan affiliation. The more educated, the more Democratic. Post graduates are 71%-25% Biden. Too bad there aren’t more of them!
One last key factor: the double-haters. We've seen them already—voters who have unfavorable opinions of both Biden and Trump. In 2016, the double-haters swung 50-39 for Trump. The last Civiqs national poll had Biden winning the double-haters 40-7. NBC has it even more lopsided, with Biden winning double-haters 60-10.
In this Georgia poll? Biden is winning double-haters by a gaudy 60-2. Sure, many Democrats wish someone else had won the nomination, but people don’t really care because Donald Trump is president, period, the end.
This poll does bolster the case for my two top vice presidential possibilities—Georgia’s 2018 Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Stacey Abrams—for obvious reasons—and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who displayed strength among the white educated suburban women who have driven many of the Democratic gains in the last three years.
Now, some of you may be thinking: “This can’t be real! This is wishful thinking!” Well, we aren't the first pollsters to find Biden in the lead. That honor goes to a Republican pollster. "Currently, 46 percent of Georgia voters are backing President Donald Trump, while 47 percent are supporting Joe Biden," read the leaked poll from GOP outfit Public Opinion Strategies.
In fact, the Georgia Republican Party hasn’t been shy about broadcasting this state of affairs, likely in order to scare their donors into taking their state seriously.
Georgia GOP isn’t wrong, and neither is this poll. Georgia is very much a top-tier battleground.
The poll was conducted May 16-18, with a margin of error of 3.1% (a whopping 1,339 respondents).
