It shouldn’t be surprising given that 40 million jobs have been lost (and counting), but we talk often of how static presidential numbers are. That means supporters will keep supporting impeached President Donald Trump, and opponents aren’t about to be persuaded by anything to change their minds. So it’s always surprising to see anything change as dramatically as this:
The question is simple enough: “Do you think President Trump is doing enough to create new jobs?” And while it fluctuated a bit after he was inaugurated, it had stabilized by early 2018 and, bucking his approval ratings, his numbers on jobs had seen gradual improvement over time.
As you can imagine, Republican and Democratic numbers were fully stratified, so it was independents willing to give Trump improving marks on jobs, even if they weren’t going to give him good overall marks. Here’s the same “create new jobs” question among independents:
Here’s Trump’s job approval among those very same independents:
Thus, Trump had managed a rare decoupling with these independents—getting better marks on job creation than on his presidency in general. But that’s over.
His 44-49 rating among independents on creating jobs is just a hint better than his 43-52 favorability rating among those same voters. These voters aren't happy about what’s happening with the economy during this pandemic, and are clearly laying the blame on Trump.
Now, that hasn’t affected his overall approval numbers—he’s been steady with independents all year, and as such, it isn’t affecting his overall approval numbers (currently 43-54).
What it does do, however, is limit his ability to win these independents back to him. There was something about Trump they thought was okay, and that could’ve been something Trump built on to win their crucial votes. Instead, he’s lost-lost them, solidifying their opposition to his presidency.
Trump is already losing nationally by mid- to high-single digits. The Electoral College gives him hope of once again overcoming a popular vote loss to win reelection, but even swing states are looking a little rough for him. He can’t afford to surrender any advantages he might have a anywhere, and the “jobs” question was a rare highlight for him.
Oh well, that’s gone.
As rare as it is, it’s nice to see Trump get punished for his rank incompetence.
