Per Civiqs’ latest national poll, you hate to see this:
Do you have a favorable
or unfavorable opinion of...
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
Favorable |
34 |
43 |
Unfavorable |
56 |
55 |
Unsure |
10 |
2 |
So yes, the impeached president currently presiding over a mass death event in our country has a 10-point net favorability advantage. It’s bullshit, right?
Yet in the same poll, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a 3-point 47-44 lead in the general election. And in the seven states that will decide the race for the White House, Biden maintains a narrow lead. How can that be?
First of all, let’s see where the disparity lies. First, let’s check in on partisan attitudes toward Biden:
Joe Biden |
All |
Dem |
Rep |
Ind |
Favorable |
34 |
68 |
5 |
27 |
Unfavorable |
56 |
19 |
91 |
62 |
Unsure |
10 |
14 |
4 |
11 |
Now let’s compare to Trump:
Donald Trump |
All |
Dem |
Rep |
Ind |
Favorable |
43 |
4 |
89 |
43 |
Unfavorable |
55 |
95 |
8 |
54 |
Unsure |
2 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
Right off the bat, we see the biggest difference is party unity. Trump has his base locked up, while Biden barely has two-thirds of his in line. Really bolsters my argument that he needs to pick either Stacey Abrams or Elizabeth Warren as his running mate in order to unify the party.
The other big dividing line, and one I’ve discussed before, is age:
(Among 18-34) Do you have a
favorable or unfavorable
opinion of...
|
Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
Favorable |
25 |
32 |
Unfavorable |
62 |
64 |
Unsure |
13 |
3 |
Even here among 18-34 year olds, Trump has a favorability advantage. But look what happens in the trial heat between those two candidates:
2020 presidential vote, 18-34
|
|
Donald Trump |
33 |
Joe Biden |
47 |
Someone Else |
15 |
Unsure |
4 |
Trump is roughly where he was at in 2016 among young voters, per the exit polls. He is also exactly at his “favorable” mark. If you’re young and like Trump, you’re voting for him. The end. But Biden is running about 8-10 points behind Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, and it’s Democratic-voting youth who are unhappy with Biden.
It kind of makes sense, though—the candidate most favored in the Democratic primary by younger voters, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, was defeated by Biden. Biden now has to work to bring them home.
Watch Hillary Clinton’s 2016 numbers amongst this group:
At this point four years ago, Clinton’s favorability rating amongst 18-34 year olds was a woeful 27-64, and that improved to 33-58 by Election Day. Among 18-34 Democrats, it improved from 52-34 favorable to 61-26 by Election Day.
We’re already seeing Biden’s numbers creep up among 18-34 Democrats:
To be clear, at this point in 2016, Hillary Clinton’s rating among 18-34 year-old Democrats was 52-34. Four years later, Biden is at 50-35. He’s doing worse. Not by much! And it could all be floating within the margin of error, but that doesn’t make the situation any better. Biden needs to do better among youth than Clinton did, for all the obvious reasons.
So yes, Trump is more “popular” than Biden is, but it’s mostly because Trump has consolidated his base while Biden is still struggling to pull young Democrats into the fold.
But what about those independents? They are 43-54 favorable toward Trump, and only 27-62 favorable toward Biden. Is that a problem?
2020 presidential vote, Independents
|
|
Donald Trump |
45 |
Joe Biden |
41 |
Someone Else |
12 |
Unsure |
2 |
Despite the massive gap in favorability among independents, Trump is only winning them by four points. In 2016 Trump won them 46-42-12. So regardless of what the favorability numbers say, results are tracking 2016 numbers. Interesting, right?
Here’s what’s going on:
Among the 14% of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Biden, 40% would vote for Biden, 7% would vote for Trump, and 53% say they would vote for a different candidate, or are unsure.
That is huge. In 2016, Trump won the battle of the unfavorables. This year, it’s not even close. If people hate Trump, they really don’t care what they actually think about Biden. They’re still going to vote for him.
Is that our ideal scenario? Having a candidate people begrudgingly vote for? Of course not. But it’s better than what we had in 2016.