You guys remember Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys to winning the White House.
Per Wikipedia:
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.[4]
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Until last week, you could argue the following:
1: False (Bad for trump)
2: True (Good for trump)
3: True (Good for trump)
4: True (Good for trump)
5: False (Bad for trump)
6: False (Bad for trump)
7: False (Bad for trump)
8: True (Good for trump)
9: False (Bad for trump)
10: False (Bad for trump)
11: False (Bad for trump)
12: False (Bad for trump)
13: True (Good for trump)
The one key that has changed is #8 (Social Unrest). Since the murder of George Floyd, we have seen social unrest that actually made trump run for cover. Obviously bad for trump.
That makes 8 keys false, which according to to the model, predicts doom for trump.
I love quoting Yogi Berra “It’s hard to make predictions, specially about the future”
So take this as you will. I just know that I would rather be in Biden’s position than trump’s.