A new Civiqs poll for Data for Progress shows that while Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is the No. 1 choice for vice president (VP) among Democrats and young Black registered voters, California Sen. Kamala Harris is a strong second-place contender and leads among all Black voters. Once you consider the first and second choices of Democratic voters, both significantly outpace the rest of the potential field.
First + second choice (All Democrats) |
Elizabeth Warren |
43 |
Kamala Harris |
40 |
Stacey Abrams |
29 |
Susan Rice |
13 |
Val Demmings |
10 |
Keisha Lance Bottoms |
5 |
Georgia powerhouse Stacey Abrams is reportedly not on presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s short list, while the rest of the names on the list above are. The poll tested other names; none received significant support.
Among all Black voters, Harris led the field with 22%, Abrams 18%, and Warren 16%. If you add up first and second choices, it’s 37% Harris, 37% Abrams, and 31% Warren. None of these three take a dominant percentage.
Among young voters, Warren leads with 38%, Harris 14%, and Abrams 12%. Add up first and second choices, and it’s Warren 54%, Harris 33%, and Abrams 27%.
Among young Black voters, 18-34, Warren is the top choice of 31%, Abrams 29%, and Harris a shockingly low 7%. Why is Abrams off the short list again? I’d really love to know why she hasn’t gotten due consideration. Add up first and second choices of young Black voters, and Abrams gets a whopping 57%, Warren 38%, and Harris 23%.
Young voter preferences matter, and Joe Biden is struggling to consolidate Democratic youth support.
Joe Biden (among Democrats) |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Net favorable |
18-34 |
52 |
34 |
+18 |
35-49 |
75 |
16 |
+59 |
50-64 |
86 |
7 |
+79 |
65+ |
88 |
8 |
+80 |
As you can see, young Democrats drastically lag behind their older peers in their personal view of Biden in a way that is dragging down the ticket. No age group supports Democrats more strongly than young people, so the more excited and activated they are, the better for Biden and, perhaps more importantly, for Democrats down the ballot. We need the enthusiastic turnout of the youth. Biden himself doesn’t seem capable of generating that excitement, so there’s nothing he can do to better gin up youth support than to pick a vice presidential candidate who gets this demographic on the bandwagon. And as far as this poll is concerned, that’s Warren or Abrams. And Abrams is disappointingly no longer under consideration.
As I’ve written several times, a VP’s job is to help the ticket get elected, bringing aboard people who might otherwise not be reachable by the nominee. Hillary Clinton screwed up in 2016 by picking someone she thought could “step into her shoes” if she were incapacitated instead of someone who would help heal a deeply divided party. Until the Black Lives Matter protest happened, that rift remained unhealed—there was still huge mistrust from the party’s activist Bernie-centric wing.
That rift remains, of course, but we have a new one in the wake of these protests: the systematic disempowerment of our nation’s communities of color. There was always pressure for Biden to pick a woman of color given that he owes his nomination to Black voters who supported him in overwhelming numbers (despite the presence of Harris and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker in the race, both of them Black). That pressure has only intensified in recent weeks.
Yet what this polling and others has shown is that Black voters aren’t particularly demanding a Black VP, giving Biden space to figure out which candidate gives him the best chance of not only winning, but winning so dominantly that Trump has no avenue to contest the election. Winning so dominantly that we pick up eight or nine Senate seats. Winning so dominantly that we sweep up state legislatures in places like Texas, giving us the ability to either write new legislative maps after the next reapportionment, or block Republican gerrymanders.
Warren and Harris both get solid support from all Democrats—they are the first or second choice of a solid 40% or so of all Democrats. Both are widely accepted by Black voters. Warren does better with young voters. Harris validates the faith Biden received from the Black community.
The poll also tested which candidates generate more excitement:
Which candidates makes you most excited to *volunteer*? |
|
All |
18-34 |
Elizabeth Warren |
25 |
34 |
Kamala Harris |
16 |
10 |
Stacey Abrams |
12 |
13 |
Which candidates makes you most excited to *donate*? |
|
All |
18-34 |
Elizabeth Warren |
22 |
31 |
Kamala Harris |
15 |
7 |
Stacey Abrams |
13 |
13 |
Again, by both these metrics, Warren better shores up a glaring weakness in Biden’s base of support: young voters.
The donation numbers are already borne out by Warren’s existing work on behalf of Biden. Her email list raised $2.5 million for Biden the day she endorsed him, while a fundraiser for him on Monday brought in his biggest haul of the campaign: $6 million (compared to a $3.5 million haul at a Harris fundraiser a week prior).
Still, I don’t think Biden will lack money. What he lacks can’t be bought, and that’s youth energy and support. What he lacks is the trust of Bernie Sanders’ primary supporters. And there, Warren is the clear choice to unite the party. (There is obviously strong overlap between young voters, young Black voters, and Bernie Sanders primary supporters. Fun fact: Biden won South Carolina Black Democratic voters 61-17 over Sanders, but Sanders won the under-30 Black vote 38-36.)
First + second choice (Bernie Sanders primary supporters) |
Elizabeth Warren |
56 |
Stacey Abrams |
32 |
“Someone else” not listed |
32 |
Kamala Harris |
30 |
This is not an easy decision for Biden, and it’s made doubly difficult given the events of the past few weeks. No matter what he decides, people will be outraged and the angst will be legion. There is no one-size-fits-all option—except for maybe Abrams, and she’s inexplicably off the short list.
But what these numbers tell us is that neither Warren or Harris, likely the two finalists, will break the party. Warren has strong support among Black voters. Harris may not match Warren among young voters, but overall when accounting for older voters, she generates nearly as much excitement among all Democrats.
We’ll be fine with either.