New York has 27 seats in Congress and a hell of a lot of them have something exciting going on this cycle. In the battle for control of the House, Democrats and Republicans have primaries in battleground districts that will determine control of the House, while New York’s emboldened progressive movement has spurred challenges to entrenched incumbents. New York’s June 23rd primaries could dramatically shake up Congress- or reaffirm its status quo. With so many exciting primaries, I have assembled this preview to give overviews of the important ones. Read on to discover how these primaries are shaping up, and who the candidates running in them are.
New York’s 1st Congressional District: Eastern Suffolk
Incumbent: Lee Zeldin (R)
2016 Result: 58-42 R
2018 Result: 51-46 R
50-49 Obama, 54-42 Trump, 49-49 Cuomo
Covering portions of Eastern and Central Suffolk County, New York’s first congressional district is the easternmost congressional district in the state. The first district has traditionally served as a swing seat since the 90s, but it pivoted hard to the right in 2016, giving Donald Trump a margin victory in the double-digits. However, Democrats have done well in this district downballot, and every Democrat running statewide in 2018 won the district, although by margins as small as 0.04% in the Attorney General’s race.
The incumbent Representative is Lee Zeldin. A former State Senator, Zeldin was first elected to the House by defeating incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop, who he had previously lost to in 2008, as part of the 2014 GOP wave. An outspoken conservative and defender of the President, Zeldin is one of the only Jewish Republicans serving in Congress, and an outspoken advocate for Israel and Trump’s policy towards it, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem.
The Democratic Primary
The most prominent candidate the the Democratic primary field to take on Zeldin is 2018 nominee (and fellow Jew) Perry Gershon. Gershon, a real estate lender, was able to win the 2018 primary in a narrow upset over Kate Browning, a Suffolk County legislator favored by the Democratic establishment, thanks to substantial self-funding. Gershon was considered by many Democrats to be a weak nominee, and he was hammered by Zeldin as a carpetbagger with the zinger “Park Avenue Perry,” but he nonetheless was able to give Zeldin a close race in a seat only considered marginally competitive at the beginning of the cycle.
However, Gershon does not have a clear field in the primary. His chief opposition is Nancy Goroff, the former chair of Stony Brook University’s chemistry program. If elected, she would be the first woman scientist with a Ph.D. to be elected to Congress. She has the backing of Emily’s List, and is emphasizing her experience as a professor, as well as her residence in Brookhaven, the town which makes up most of the district’s population, drawing a contrast with Gershon, who lives in the wealthy East Hampton, famous for its large number of second homes.
Also running in the race is Bridget Fleming, a Suffolk County Legislator and former Southhampton town councilwoman. Fleming, a former prosecutor, entered the race late and has less cash than her opponents, although she does sport many local endorsements, including ones from Representative Kathleen Rice and State Assemblyman Fred Thiele, a member of the Independence Party who considered a run for the seat in 2018, but ultimately declined, instead backing his friend, Kate Browning.
Greg Fischer, a former State Senate nominee and Libertarian candidate for local office, is not running a serious campaign.
Overall, the primary is a difficult one to handicap, but it appears to be a competitive three-way. Gershon has a name recognition advantage, which will be especially helpful during the coronavirus pandemic, but Fleming and Goroff are running serious campaigns and are locally established. Expect many Democrats to breathe a sigh of relief if Gershon loses.
New York’s 2nd Congressional District: Southwestern Suffolk and Southeastern Nassau
Incumbent: Peter King (R)
2016 Result: 62-38 R
2018 Result: 53-47 R
52-47 Obama, 53-44 Trump, 51-47 Cuomo
Straddling a smaller, heavily Republican, portion of Nassau County and a larger, more swingy portion of Suffolk, New York’s second congressional district is somewhat similar in partisanship and trends to the first district, although it tends to lean slightly more to the left. The district, which covers portions of Long Island’s South Shore, saw a similar lurch to the right during the 2016 presidential election, but proved amenable to Democrats downballot during the following cycle.
The longest serving Republican congressman from New York, Peter King is a colorful character. A powerful remnant of Nassau County’s once powerful Republican machine, King was first elected to the House in 1992, where he defeated wealthy Democrat Steve Orlins, attacking him as a carpetbagger. King has survived thick and thin, cruising to reelection in even the most difficult cycles for Republicans nationwide and on Long Island, even as he has racked up controversies for his support for the IRA (including a flagrant false claim that they never targeted civilians) and, in his role as Chairman of the House’s Homeland Security Committee, targeting of American Muslims whose support he had courted before 9/11. Despite his penchant for controversy, King is also one of the most moderate GOP members of the House. He supports gun control, including a ban on assault weapons. He voted against all the articles of impeachment against Bill Clinton. He was the first Republican to call for New Gingrich’s ouster as House Speaker. He was the only Republican to vote in favor of the HEROES Act. After facing his closest reelection in his career (although still winning by a decisive six points) King is finally hanging it up. While it was widely speculated that King intended to pawn the seat off to his daughter, a Hempstead town councilwoman (possibly by dropping out of reelection after the filing deadline), Erin King Sweeney moved to North Carolina in 2019. Later that year, King announced his retirement.
The Republican Primary
Andrew Garbarino has cemented himself as the Republican frontrunner to succeed King. A State Assemblyman, Garbarino, is the firm establishment favorite. He has the backing of both King and Zeldin, as well as the local Republican parties, the US Chamber of Commerce, and the US House’s Republican leadership. Although a conservative in the Assembly, Garbarino is running as a relative moderate in the congressional race, and his issues page on his website highlights his support for environmental protections in the Great South Bay and his advocacy for veterans.
Running against Garbarino is Michael LiPetri, a colleague from the Assembly. A freshman, LiPetri defeated an incumbent Democrat in 2018 at the age of only 29. However, his campaign has been starved for establishment support, and his fundraising has badly lagged Garbarino’s. While LiPetri’s campaign hits some of the same beats regarding environmental protection and veterans’ issues as Garbarino’s, his campaign includes additional servings of red meat, most notably in his attacks on Governor Andrew Cuomo for his response to coronavirus.
Overall, while one should expect Garbarino to be a substantial favorite in this primary, LiPetri, running a good old-fashioned anti-establishment campaign, can’t be ruled out entirely. A Garbarino victory would be a boost for the decaying party machine Nassau, and likely see more of Peter King’s style of governing be preserved than if LiPetri won.
The Democratic Primary
The Democratic establishment also has a favorite in the race, although unlike Garbarino her path to victory looks assured. A Jamaican immigrant, distinguished veteran of the United States Army and public school worker, Jackie Gordon resigned her seat on the Babylon town council to focus on her run for Congress. She has locked down support from national Democratic groups, including Emily’s List and Vote Vets, local Democratic Representatives such as Kathleen Rice and Tom Suozzi as well as Jay Jacobs, the chair of both the New York State and Nassau County Democratic Committees.
Also running for the Democratic nomination is Pat Maher, a perennial candidate who lost to King by nearly 40 points in 2014.
Gordon will win the Democratic primary easily.
New York’s 3rd Congressional District: Northern Nassau, Northwestern Suffolk and Queens
Incumbent: Tom Suozzi (D)
2016 Result: 53-47 D
2018 Result: 59-41 D
51-48 Obama, 52-45 Clinton, 56-41 Cuomo
More upscale than the 1st and 2nd congressional districts, the 3rd district covers large portions of Long Island’s North Shore, including the Gold Coast. Made famous by the Great Gatsby, the Gold Coast’s mansions were considered signs of the wealth of American’s business elite, and the district is still wealthier than the other districts on Long Island. The district also boasts a larger Asian population, in contrast to the larger Hispanic populations in the other Island districts. While having a whiter population than the second district, it has a higher population of educated whites. Like other districts of a similar profile, it has shifted politically to the left in recent years, becoming increasingly blue.
Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi has had a political career defined by ups and downs. The moderate Democrat served as mayor of Glen Cove in the 90s and in 2001 was elected Nassau County Executive. In doing so he not only defeated State Representative Tom DiNapoli, a close ally of State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, in a close primary, but he also resoundingly broke the Nassau County Republican machine with his landslide general election victory. Suozzi was reelected in 2005, but his career quickly turned sour. He ran for Governor in 2006, and was thoroughly humiliated in an 82-18 landslide loss. He even lost Nassau County by double digits in a campaign funded by Wall Street financiers angry at Attorney General Eliot Spitzer’s investigations into their practices. In 2009, Suozzi was struck another blow; he lost reelection in an unexpected upset to County Legislator Ed Mangano. When he ran in a rematch in 2013, he lost by nearly 20 points despite a Siena College poll showing a tight race. However, Suozzi was able to recover in 2016 by nabbing the seat of retiring Representative Steve Israel despite lacking the incumbent’s support. Suozzi attracted attention as the 116th Congress prepared to get sworn in for being picked over Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to hold the Queens Borough’s traditional seat on the Ways and Means Committee. He has also been a high-profile member of the Problem Solvers Caucus, including helping the caucus pressure Nancy Pelosi into supporting a bipartisan rules package designed to limit gridlock in the House.
The Democratic Primary
While Suozzi’s strongest possible opponent in the Democratic primary, DNC member Rob Zimmerman declined to challenge him, Suozzi has nonetheless acquired two challengers. Leading the progressive opposition to Suozzi is activist Melanie D’Arrigo. Running on a progressive platform highlighting support for the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, D’Arrigo has robust support from progressive groups such Brand New Congress, the New York Progressive Action Network and the Sunrise Movement, but little establishment backing.
Also running is former firefighter and prosecutor Michael Weinstock. An openly gay man, Weinstock would also be the first 9/11 responder to be elected to Congress were he to win. He is best known for receiving recognition from Pope Francis for reuniting State Assemblyman Tony D’Urso with the Jewish family that his father helped rescue from the Holocaust. Like D’Arrigo, he is running on a progressive platform that includes support for the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, although his platform also includes both a focus on issues related to law enforcement and first responders and a unique plank aiming to rectify gaps in accessibility to Suozzi’s offices between his constituents on Long Island and those in Queens.
Overall, Suozzi should be a favorite for renomination, especially with the insurgent vote split between multiple opponents and the coronavirus pandemic limiting their ability to contact voters.
The Republican Primary
The only Republican running in the primary is George Santos, a first-generation American born from Brazilian parents.
New York’s 9th Congressional District: Brooklyn
Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)
2016 Result: 92-8 D (over Conservative Party opponent)
2018 Result: 89-10 D
85-14 Obama, 84-14 Clinton, 86-11 Cuomo
The ninth congressional district is the first one on our list to be notable for its great diversity. The district is roughly half African-American, especially of Caribbean descent, yet its political character is also defined by its large Jewish population, which makes up roughly a fifth of the district’s total. The district also includes a large Russian population among its white minority, and the working-class neighborhoods of the district are contrasted with gentrification. Like in most of New York City, this results in a district that has a great deal of fascinating politics, but remains strongly Democratic at all levels.
The incumbent Representative of the ninth district is Yvette Clarke. A legacy politician who succeeded her mother in order to be elected to the City Council, Clarke narrowly won a primary to the open seat (then numbered the sixth) in 2006. Clarke has generally been regarded as a progressive in the House, and has made herself a vocal opponent of Trump since his election. However, she has also been accused of being an absentee representative; she once didn’t update her public events calendar for nearly two years. Her hands-off approach to her district likely contributed to her unexpectedly close primary race in 2018 over challenger Adem Bunkeddeko. After her narrow victory, Clarke once again faces a stiff challenge.
The Democratic Primary
Clarke’s foremost challenger is no doubt the man who nearly knocked her off last cycle. Adem Bunkeddeko is an anti-poverty activist, former Community Board member and the son of Ugandan refugees. On the same night that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shocked the political world by knocking off House Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley, Bunkeddeko nearly pulled off a second shocker as he held Clarke to a slim margin of victory that late ballots would end up tallying as slightly greater than six points. Bunkeddeko ran an energetic campaign that earned the endorsement of the New York Times even as he received little more than contempt from Clarke who, during a debate, responded to an accusation that she was upset at being challenged by saying “I’m laughing.” Bunkeddeko badly lost among the district’s black and Carribean communities, but he did well in the high-income Park Slope and gentrifying Prospect Heights while running acceptably in the district’s Russian-heavy precincts. Bunkeddeko is giving the seat another shot and is running a progressive platform that calls for a Green New Deal, Medicare for All and the abolition of ICE, although he notably has rejected the socialist label, saying it “doesn’t have any brand” in the district.
Complicating Bunkeddeko’s path is Isiah James. A former Army Veteran, James has the backing of the left-wing group Brand New Congress and a genuine spirit (as well has an impressive height of 6’8) but little else. A socialist, James has attacked both Clarke and Bunkeddeko from the left. The incumbent is heavily reliant on PAC money, and Bunkeddeko has clashed with progressives in the district over his support of charter schools and taking money from real estate, finance and lobbyists. James has little chance to win, but his campaign is a drain on Bunkeddeko, and could make the difference in a close race.
However, this race is not so simple as a two-way rematch with a third wheel, and Clarke’s third challenger has the potential to upend the primary. City Councilman Chaim Deutsch is about as odd of a political duck as they come. A former staffer for Councilmen Lloyd Henry and Michael Nelson, Deutch, an Orthodox Jew, was elected to the City Council in his own right in 2013. His victory was considered improbable by many observers. The 48th council district was labeled the “Super-Russian District,” and it was assumed that the community held the power there. However, Deutsch won a close Democratic primary in a field which included multiple Russian opponents and proceeded to win the general election by double-digits over David Storobin, a Russian Republican. Deutsch not only had strong support among his own high-turnout Jewish community, but was able to find strong support among other ethnic groups in the district, such as the Irish and Asians, the latter of whom he campaigned for the votes of alongside Chinese-American City Comptroller John Liu (it perhaps merits mention that many of the district’s Russians are also Jewish). Since being elected, Deutsch has been one of the most conservative members of the City Council, and has received particular heat for voting against a ban on conversion therapy. Deutsch’s campaign is certainly a long-shot, but underestimating his odds is risky. The district’s Jewish population is large and high turn-out, and while not as electorally formidable as the Orthodox enclave of Borough Park, Flatbush and Crown Heights’ Jewish populations are likely to provide him a base of support even outside his district, where he will aim to run up the score. Even if Deutsch stands little chance of winning, he still could alter the race; Clarke ran strongly in many precincts Deutsch will target. in 2018.
2018 Republican nominee Lutchi Gayot is running a non-serious campaign as an Andrew Yang acolyte.
Overall, this is a difficult race to handicap. In particular, I just can’t say how much of an effect that Deustch will really have on this race. But make no mistake; Clarke should be considered an endangered incumbent who faces a real chance of defeat, especially if Deutsch can siphon off her support.
New York’s 10th Congressional District: Brooklyn and the Westside of Manhattan
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler (D)
2016 Result: 78-22 D
2018 Result: 82-18 D
74-25 Obama, 78-18 Clinton, 80-16 Cuomo
New York’s 10th congressional district is the most Jewish in the nation. As of 2014, Jews made up over a third of its population, and it had as many Jews as the 192 least-Jewish districts combined. The district is particularly notable for containing Borough Park, an Orthodox Jewish enclave which is one of the largest concentrations of Orthodox Jews outside of Israel. The district also has a large Asian population, although, in stark contrast to the 9th district just above, a distinctly small African-American population. The district, which includes the Financial District of Manhattan, is also relatively upscale, although with a great deal of underlying economic diversity and inequality.
The incumbent Representative is Jerry Nadler. Nadler is a long-time politician, and has served in Congress since 1992, and before that as a State Assemblyman. A former leader of the Democratic Socialist Organizing Committee and the DSA, Nadler has slotted in comfortably as an establishment politician in Washington, but nonetheless remains a committed progressive. A supporter of Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, Nadler is often considered a boss of the Manhattan Democrats despite not holding a formal leadership role in the County party. In an article from 2010 available on his website, Nadler embraces the label of “the Godfather.”
He is the heir to the progressive mantle at a time when the New York electorate, especially in local primaries, has keeled to the left. He is a hero on the West Side, where there are more votes to be had in primary and general elections than in any other part of the city or state, and his sway stretches out to parts of Brooklyn he has never represented, but is full of his former constituents.
The Jews in the tip of his district, which goes into Boro Park, love him, and so do the Jews far beyond. Union leaders connect with him. The New York Times editorial board always takes his calls. He may not be Boss Tweed, or really any kind of stereotypical boss, but right now, Jerry Nadler rules local politics.”
Nadler is easily one of the most prominent Democrats in Washington. Having gained national prominence when he attacked Clinton’s impeachment as a “partisan railroad job,” Nadler serves as Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and has received attention for his long-running feud with Donald Trump. However, he has been criticized for slow-walking investigations and being slow to adopt tactics such as forceful use of subpoena powers in favor of making ineffectual demands. His support among the Jewish community also waned following his support of the Iran deal, and he lost Borough Park to a primary challenger in 2016.
The Democratic Primary
Nader’s primary challenger is Lindsey Boylan. Boylan is a former community board member and advisor to Governor Cuomo. In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, she led New York’s disaster relief in Puerto Rico. She is attacking Nadler for having failed to use his position as Judiciary chair as an effective way to limit Trump’s powers. She has fundraised well for a challenger to an entrenched incumbent, having raised over $700,000 total to date.
Jonathan Herzog, an Andrew Yang acolyte, is running an underfunded campaign.
Overall, Nadler’s entrenched position and progressive bona fides should leave him a strong favorite for renomination. Nadler going down would be a true political earthquake on par with Crowley’s 2018 defeat.
New York’s 11th Congressional District: Staten Island and South Brooklyn
Incumbent: Max Rose (D)
2016 Result: 62-38 R
2018 Result: 53-47 D
52-47 Obama, 54-44 Trump, 52-46 Cuomo
The most conservative district in New York City and by a good margin, New York’s 11th congressional district contains the entirety of Staten Island as well as portions of South Brooklyn, including Bay Ridge. The district tends to lean conservative in presidential elections, although it bears the distinction of being the only McCain-Obama-Trump district in the country, as Hurricane Sandy likely helped Obama pull off a decisive victory in the district. However, it has been willing to vote for Democrats at the state level. In 2018, all statewide Democratic candidates carried the district, as did Democratic Assembly candidates. Democrats also flipped the last State Senate district held by a Republican in Brooklyn on the strength of portions of the seat contained within NY-11.
The incumbent Representative for the seat, freshman Max Rose, pulled off an unexpected upset to win the seat in 2018 when he beat incumbent Dan Donovan by a 6-point margin. A recipient of a bronze star and purple heart, Rose was wounded in Afghanistan and even left the campaign trail for two weeks in 2018 for National Guard training. After his full-time military service ended, Rose also worked at Brightpoint Health, a non-profit healthcare provider. In the House, Rose has been a moderate, and was also a notable hold-out on Trump’s impeachment, being one of the last Democrats to come out in support.
The Republican Primary
The likely frontrunner for the Republican nomination to face Rose is State Assemblywoman NIcole Malliotakis. The first Greek and Cuban woman to have been elected in New York State, Malliotakis quickly became a rising star in the Republican Party after her election in 2010. In 2017, she was the Republican nominee for Mayor of New York City. While she was thoroughly defeated by a 66-28 point margin, she did win the 11th district decisively, carrying Staten Island with over 70 percent of the vote. She was considered a top recruit to challenge Rose. However, Malliotakis has made stumbles, and many Republicans have become unimpressed with her as a candidate. In her mayoral campaign, she claimed that she regretted voting for Trump, and wished she had written in Marco Rubio, who she had served as New York state campaign chair for. Now, that statement is a chink in her armor. However, Malliotakis has retained the vast majority of establishment support, including from Trump and the local Republican and Conservative parties.
Facing Malliotakis is prosecutor Joe Caldarera. Caldarera has relentlessly gone after Malliotaksis, arguing that she is not conservative, pulling out statements she has made expressing support for abortion rights, among others. His website is unusually direct, calling her a “mediocre candidate” and arguing she is beholden to the Washington establishment. Caldarera has badly lagged in fundraising and establishment support, but if he loses it won’t be for having been timid. Caldarera also has the support of Youtuber Joseph Saladino (AKA Joey Salads) whose bizarre aborted campaign for the seat attracted all the wrong sorts of attention.
Despite her apostasies and weaknesses as a campaigner, Malliotakis should be considered the favorite with her establishment support and money. However, Caldarera has shown a willingness to fight dirty, and there may be some small room for an upset.
New York’s 12th Congressional District: Eastside Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens
Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)
2016 Result: 83-17 D
2018 Result: 86-12 D
77-22 Obama, 83-14 Clinton, 83-14 Cuomo
The Upper East Side of Manhattan was once known as the Silk Stocking District. Even now, the traditionally wealthy and Anglo-Saxon dominated neighborhood is one of the most important places in America in terms of political influence, as it showers presidential candidates with prodigious donations at high-dollar fundraisers. However, the district is not solely upscale. While it is the most educated district in the country, and richest by per-capita income, like so much of New York City, it is divided between the wealthy and the working class, the latter of whom can be found in the district in neighborhoods such as Bushwick, a Hispanic neighborhood with a large Puerto Rican population. Once competitive, this district has shifted left and become firmly Democratic.
Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Maloney, the Chairwoman of the House Oversight Committee, can rightly be called a transitional political figure. When the City Councilwoman ran for Congress, Manhattan had several Republican elected officials. Bill Green was Congressman, Charles Millard served on the City Council, John Ratvitz held an Assembly seat, and foremost among them all, Roy Goodman, the Chairman of the Manhattan Republican Party for the past decade, served in the State Senate. These Republicans were the last remnants of New York’s history of liberal Republicanism, and Goodman valiantly stood against a growing conservative tide. His reputation, however, was damaged when his role in picking a pro-choice Republican in the 1990 gubernatorial race caused a bitter party feud and saw his chosen candidate nearly slip to third place behind a conservative third party candidate. Maloney’s victory over Green in 1992 (despite Republicans picking up a City Council seat the following year) was a warning sign. Roy Goodman would resign from the seat in 2002. Ratvitz would lose the special election to succeed him to Democrat Liz Krueger, who serves in the Senate to this day. Since then, no Republicans have been elected to public office in Manhattan. Maloney has generally been a quiet representative, but she has attracted opposition. She was one of the Democrats to oppose the Iran Deal, and she also has taken anti-vax stances; while she insists that she supports vaccines, she supported legislation banning mercury-based vaccines and promoted Andrew Wakefield an anti-vax quack whose paper on the link between vaccine and autism is widely discredited, but has found a receptive audience among the anti-vax movement. Maloney herself has an autistic son. One risk for Maloney in this primary is that her voter base may have vacated the district- many wealthy Manhattanites fled the city at the outset of the Covid-19 epidemic, and while they can request absentee ballots, Maloney should nonetheless be concerned about their flight.
The Democratic Primary
Suraj Patel ran against Maloney in 2018, and while he lost, he managed to hold the longtime congresswoman to less than 60 percent of the vote. Patel, a son of Indian immigrants who worked on Obama’s presidential campaigns and at the White House, is running at Maloney from the left. He attracted attention in 2018 for a town hall he held with sex workers, as well as for using Tinder catfishing as a method to contact voters. The Business Ethics professor at NYU Stern, who contracted the coronavirus during the pandemic, is attacking the wealthy Maloney as being part of a congressional majority that fails to make use of its duties as a co-equal branch of government and also placing a greater emphasis on Maloney’s vaccine skepticism than in his previous run.
Lauren Ashcraft is another challenger to Maloney taking a similar role to Clarke in the 9th District, running a socialist campaign in a race where the foremost challenger to the incumbent is the candidate who narrowly lost in the previous cycle. A comedian and JP Morgan project manager, Ashcraft’s campaign has laser-focused on issues of economic inequality, arguing that the comparatively Wall-Street friendly Maloney’s history of taking corporate donations shows her as being out-of-touch with the needs of working Americans. Ashcraft has received support from some left-wing groups, but trails Patel in funds.
Peter Harrison, another democratic socialist, is also running. The housing advocate’s campaign prominently focuses on canceling rent in light of the coronavirus pandemic. Harrison’s campaign is poorly funded.
Maloney may have had a closer than expected call in 2018, but even with the Covid epidemic draining her base of voters, her fortunes seem favorable. With two socialists running left-wing campaigns that are likely to draw votes from Patel, Maloney’s strong fundraising and near-unanimous establishment support should allow her to win another term in Congress over a fractured field. Patel’s best hope may be the pandemic suppressing the vote share of Ashcraft and Harrison by hobbling their campaigns. The closer the race is to a two-way, the better his odds of pulling an upset are.
New York’s 14th Congressional District: Bronx and Queens
Incumbent: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
2016 Result: 83-17 D
2018 Result: 78-14 D
81-18 Obama, 77-20 Clinton, 80-16 Cuomo
New York’s 14th Congressional District shifted underneath Joe Crowley’s feet without giving him trouble for almost two decades. Crowley, an Irish-American, was the chosen successor of Queens party boss Tom Manton, and was first elected to Congress representing a district typically dominated by culturally moderate white ethnic voters. However, the district was quickly shifting. By the 2000s redistricting, the recently elected Crowley represented a district with only a small white minority, a growing Hispanic population, and the beginnings of gentrification. When his district was shifted following the 2010 census to include portions of the Bronx, the district became even more Hispanic. Currently, the district is nearly 50 percent Hispanic, and its white population includes more and more gentrifiers instead of the white ethnic voters who supported Manton and his machine. Solidly Democratic, his district was nonetheless primed to turn Crowley out, as it did in the 2018 primary with his monumental upset defeat at the hands of a socialist challenger.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has made more impact before the end of her freshman term than many members of Congress will make in their entire careers. Her tenure has been extensively reported on and examined underneath a microscope. You’ve certainly read about her, and you likely have a strong opinion on her. I won’t bother detailing too much of her term. If you live in a hole in the ground underneath a boulder, then you should know that she is an outspoken socialist and informal leader of the group of four progressive frosh women of color representatives known as “the Squad.”
The Democratic Primary
Badrun Khan is the daughter on Bengali immigrants, a financial advisor and a former Community Board member. Civically active, especially in the local Bengali community, she could be seen on paper as a strong potential challenger to AOC. Khan is running on a relatively mainstream Democratic platform, arguing that AOC has been inattentive to the district’s needs, calling her a congresswoman of “Hollywood and Washington” (Crowley, she says, was of “Washington and Virginia”). She has also been critical of AOC’s role in derailing New York City’s deal with Amazon to construct its new headquarters in the city. Khan’s platform includes support for UBI, although her platform is generally well-rounded and not an Andrew Yang copycat. However, Khan has raised very little money for her race, less than a hundred thousand total. Most of the dollars in this race have gone to either AOC, or another challenger.
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera might seem like an odd candidate for opponents of AOC to coalesce behind. The former CNBC host has raised over a million dollars in her challenge to AOC (albeit while spending relatively little), an extraordinary windfall for any congressional challenger, if still well behind AOC’s astronomical sums. She also has received the support of Fernando Cabrera (no relation), a conservative City Councilman who dropped his own bid for the seat. However, Cabrera is more or less as far as her support among Democrats extends. Many of her donors are from Wall Street. Her campaign’s most prominent backer is the Chamber of Commerce, a conservative lobbying group. Even moderate Democrats have avoided touching her campaign, and this is not much of a surprise in light of her views. In her 2010 book "You Know I’m Right: More Prosperity, Less Government," Caruso-Cabrera called for an end to Social Security and Medicare, called the public school system a “monopoly, ” argued government employees should not be allowed to unionize and even argued for the legalization of insider trading. While she has walked back many of these stances, her own words, written by her own hand, make it clear what her campaign’s raison-d’etre is.
Sam Sloan, a perennial candidate and former Libertarian who happens to be a well-regarded chess player.
AOC is a strong favorite for renomination, and her losing would be almost as much of a shock as her beating Crowley was. While her controversial profile may peel off some flaky Democratic voters, Caruso-Cabrera’s campaign pitching to Wall Street rather than Democratic voters should likely allow the American left’s point-woman an easy path back to Congress.
New York’s 15th Congressional District: The Bronx
Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)
2016 Result: 95-4 D
2018 Result: 96-4 D
97-3 Obama, 94-5 Clinton, 95-4 Cuomo
New York’s 15th Congressional District is the most Democratic district in the entire country. Two-thirds Hispanic, with blacks making up its second-largest demographic group, the district bears the distinction of being the least white in the entire country. It is also the poorest district in the United States, and its average household income is well below New York City’s poverty line. While best known for Yankee Stadium and the Bronx Zoo, the district is a sobering reminder of the struggles faced by so many people of color in this country.
While retiring incumbent Jose Serrano is not a well-known national figure, the long-serving representative is no doubt not only one of the most progressive political figures in America, but also an independent voice in America’s relationship with Latin America. The one-time State Assemblyman’s politics have been described as being “to the left of the left,” and he has not been afraid of controversy. Serrano praised former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who he once invited to the Bronx, as a leader committed to “empowering the powerless.” He also invited Fidel Castro to the Bronx in 1995, and gave measured praise to the Cuban dictator after his death. Serrano is suffering from Parkinson’s disease, and his retirement leaves a wide-open field battling to succeed one of America’s least discussed radicals.
The Democratic Primary
Leading the field to succeed Serrano is a man who could hardly be more different in politics and personality. Ruben Diaz Sr. is a City Councilman and former State Senator who is the father of Ruben Diaz Jr, the Borough President often considered to be the City’s most popular politician. A convert to Evangelical Christianity and a minister who founded his own church and the Christian Community Benevolent Association, the socially conservative Democrat started his political career with a string of losses for various offices in the Bronx. He was first elected to office in 2001, well after his son was elected to the State Assembly. In the 90s, he served on the City’s Civilian Complaint Review Board. There, he would make one of his earliest widely-reported prominent controversial remarks, as he argued against the City hosting the Gay Games, on the basis that doing so would spread AIDS. Since then, and through his service as an elected official, Diaz has not mellowed. Instantly recognizable by his trademark cowboy hat, he compared the liberalization of abortion laws to the Holocaust, participated in the coup following Democrats winning a majority in the State Senate in 2008 that prevented the Senate form functioning for a month, endorsed several Republican candidates for political office, compared homoesxuality to bestiality and campaigned with Ted Cruz for President. He has clashed with his own family members, leading a protest in opposition to gay marriage that was counterprotested by his lesbian granddaughter. Even his son, who he remains on good terms with, is politically distant, and has voiced disagreement with his father’s social views and clashed with him on policy such as stop-and-frisk. Since returning to the Council in 2017, Diaz has continued to push the limits of respectability. He argued sexual harassment is a compliment for women, and saw his committee regulating the taxi industry dissolved after he argued that the City Council was “controlled by the homosexual community.” His comments also saw calls for his resignation, including from City Council Speaker Corey Johnson, a gay man who had sought Diaz’s support in his bid for Speaker. Diaz Sr’s vocal homophobia and inflammatory conservatism, as well suggestions he has made that he could vote for Trump, seems like a poor fit for the most heavily Democratic district in the country, and Diaz’s campaign is flagging by most conventional metrics. He has raised little money, and is bereft of establishment support, with his most notable endorsement being that of the Police Benevolent Association. However, Diaz has high name recognition, and is viewed favorably in the district, especially among the Dominican community. In the only poll taken of the race, he had a narrow plurality lead, and only 19 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of him. He will also appear on the ballot merely as “Ruben Diaz,” raising concerns that low-information voters will fill in his bubble under the mistaken belief they are voting for his son.
Diaz’s leading opponent is Ritchie Torres. An Afro-Latino gay man who is notably youthful at only 32 years, the City Councilman has become the leading anti-Diaz candidate, and polled only two points behind the minister in the only public poll conducted of the race. Torres is far and away the strongest fundraiser in the race, and has focused his campaign’s cannons squarely on Diaz, attacking him for his bigoted stances, and appealing to the poetic justice of Diaz losing to a gay man. Torres has substantial labor support, and the endorsements of the Daily News and the Times. However, despite AOC serving as an inspiration for his congressional bid, Torres has struggled to consolidate progressive support, for stances such as his support of charter schools, as well as accepting donations from the real estate industry and Dan Loeb, a megadonor who favors Republicans and said that the Democratic leader in the New York State Senate, a black woman, had done more harm to African-Americans than the KKK.
State Assemblyman and DNC vice-chair Michael Blake is an ambitious politician and well-connected on the national stage. On top of having substantial support from local unions and elected officials, he also has the support of 8 US Representatives (including none other than John Lewis), and the best fundraising in the field after Torres. Blake, who placed 4th in the 2019 special election for Public Advocate (but won the Bronx) has a niche in the field as the only African-American candidate without Hispanic ancestry. While black voters are a minority in the district, they could be the key to victory in a crowded field.
Blake is not the only candidate trying to jump to Congress after losing the Public Advocate’s race. Former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito placed third in that race with 11 percent of the vote. The Puerto Rican born SEIU organizer is also a nationally involved figure, having served as a former Interim President of Latino Victory US, and gotten entangled in Puerto Rico’s political upheaval when she was called a whore by the former Governor in leaks which led to his resignation. In the City, she co-founded the City Council’s Progressive Caucus. MMV has considered running for office in Puerto Rico, but has remained firmly planted in the City. However, she does not live in the Bronx, her fundraising has been weak for such a well-connected politician, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has notably chosen to back Torres.
There is in fact a third candidate in the race who ran for Public Advocate in 2019. City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez placed fifth, and received six percent of the vote. His fundraising for his congressional bid has been poor, and he has consolidated little establishment support. In the only available poll of the race, he was tied with Blake and MMV at 6 percent.
Saemlys Lopez rounds out the field of serious candidates, and her bid is hard to parse. A democratic socialist who used to work for Serrano, Lopez has the backing of AOC, the Working Families Party and Senator Bernie Sanders. Running on an unabashedly left-wing platform, Lopez has little existing name recognition, and the poll of the race found her languishing at two percent, a gap which will be hard to overcome with the coronavirus pandemic limiting her ability to contact voters, an essential ingredient for victory for a left-wing insurgent who has been outraised by many of her opponents. However, Lopez does have substantial support from left-wing institutional forces, and if anything can drag her into an unexpected victory, it’s the Working Families Party and a late donation bump from Bernie Sanders.
This race may be crowded, but for now, it looks like a two-person battle. While other candidates may have some advantages to their name, with Blake and Lopez in particular having potential to surprise, expect one of Diaz or Torres to be heading to Congress. One note here is that, should Diaz win the primary, the Working Families Party will almost certainly give one of the primary losers their ballot line (currently occupied by a placeholder) to challenge him in the general election, meaning Diaz won’t necessarily be the presumptive next congressman should he win the primary.
A gaggle of also-rans are clogging up the ballot. None should draw any appreciable support.
New York’s 16th Congressional District: North Bronx and South Westchester
Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D)
2016 Result: 94-5 D (Over People’s Choice Party candidate)
2018 Result: Uncontested D
74-26 Obama, 76-23 Clinton, 77-21 Cuomo
New York’s 16th Congressional District is a diverse district that reaches from New York City into the surrounding suburbs in Westchester County. Majority non-white, the district includes both upscale communities such as Rye, and poorer ones, such as the majority-black Westchester suburb of Mount Vernon, as well as the cities of Yonkers and New Rochelle, the latter of which was an epicenter of the Covid-19 epidemic. The district also is 12 percent Jewish. It is solidly Democratic
Eliot Engel has served in Congress since being elected in 1988, when he defeated incumbent Representative Mario Biaggi in a primary. Engel is best known for his role as an “aisle hog” at the SOTU, arriving early in order to nab a center seat and shake hands with the President. A Jew, Engel has staked out a position as a progressive on domestic policy, but also a hawk, especially on the issue of Israel. This has made him a particular target of progressives as Chairman of the House Forein Affairs Committee. Engel was one of several New York Democrats who opposed Obama’s Iran deal, and even since Trump was elected, he has applauded the administration’s relocation of the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Long a favorite of the defense industry for his stances, Engel was long known as an involved and active representative for his district, which allowed him to turn back a serious racially charged challenge from State Senator Larry Seabrook, an African-American who poached the support of the Bronx party boss, in 2000. However, Engel has made a series of missteps and unforced errors this election cycle. Even though his district is at the center of America’s worst Covid-19 outbreak, he did not return to the district even as the pandemic worsened, instead staying at his home in Maryland. Despite insisting that he had been “in both places,” reporting by the Atlantic quickly found that Engel had not set foot in New York despite claiming to have attended events there. When Engel did return to the City following the murder of George Floyd, he was caught on a hot mic at a rally pleading with Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. for speaking time, saying that “it [he] didn’t have a primary, [he] wouldn’t care.” As a result, Engel’s position is looking increasingly tenuous, and support for his primary opponent has swelled.
The Democratic Primary
Teacher Jamaal Bowman is a political newcomer, but has been civically involved for a long time. The founder and former principal of the Cornerstone Academy for Social Action (CASA), Bowman has been involved in education advocacy for years, pushing against Common Core standards, and in favor of decoupling teacher pay from evaluations and “the community school model.” Bowman has made himself a strong candidate. He is supported by the Working Families Party, as well as a whos-who of progressive New York politicians, including City Comptroller Scott Stringer, former Public Advocate Mark Green, State Senator Gustavo Rivera, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, and State Senator Alessandra Biaggi, the granddaughter of the man Engel defeated to first win the seat, who retracted her support for the incumbent. Bowman’s campaign has received a substantial boost from Engel’s stumbles, and he has acquired the support of Senator Bernie Sanders, and outraised Engel in the most recent quarter. As part of a deal negotiated by the Working Families Party, a third serious candidate, left-winger Andom Ghebreghiorgis, terminated his campaign and endorsed Bowman’s candidacy.
Make no mistake, Engel is in real trouble, and is certainly the most endangered incumbent in the New York delegation at this point. Engel’s gaffe seems to have whittled away any advantage he had and sent his odds spiraling down the tubes. Going into the primary, Engel should be considered a true underdog. Defeating incumbents in Congress is hard, but Bowman should feel confident as the primary approaches.
New York’s 17th Congressional District: Westchester and Rockland
Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)
2016 Result: Uncontested D
2018 Result: 88-12 D (Over Reform Party candidate)
57-42 Obama, 53-39 Clinton, 60-37 Cuomo
Depending on which definition you adhere to, New York’s 17th congressional district could be considered the first upstate seat being covered in this preview. This district covers portions of Westchester not enclosed in the 16th district, including the community of White Plains, as well as the entirety of Rockland County. The district is also majority white and one of the richest congressional districts in the country. It has a substantial Jewish population, especially in the Rockland County town of Ramapo, where the non-Jewish population has engaged in an ugly protracted battle with the local Jewish population over zoning rights and school funding. Like most Orthodox Jewish communities, they can make a powerful voting block.
Despite her advanced age of 82 years, it was a shock to many when longtime Representative and Appropriations Committee chair Nita Lowey announced that she would be retiring from Congress after coming to the decision in synagogue during Yom Kippur. Lowey, who insisted her decision had nothing to do with a looming primary challenge, departs the House as a trailblazer. First elected in 1988 in what was then a competitive district, Lowey was the first woman to chair the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as well as the first woman to serve as chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
The Democratic Primary
The cramped field to succeed Lowey includes the candidate who challenged her before she announced her retirement. Mondaires Jones would be the first openly gay black man elected to Congress. Jones ran against Lowey on a platform arguing that the wealthy incumbent was not in touch with the needs of her working class constituents. Jones, a former Obama administration official and member of the NAACP’s Board of Directors, serves as an attorney. Jones’ campaign or Congress has generally been regarded as a strong and energetic one. He has seen strong fundraising numbers, and a strong consolidation of progressive support since Lowey bowed out of running for reelection. He has the backing of the Congressional Progressive Caucus in addition to the favor of AOC, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, combined with backing from many local electeds, including Catherine Parker, a member of the Westchester County Legislature who dropped out of the race. Jones has also been endorsed by the New York Times.
While many progressives are excited for Jones, many are simply frightened of the possibility of another leading candidate grabbing the nomination, a concern shared by many other Democrats. State Senator David Carlucci is notorious for his role in the infamous Independent Democratic Conference, a group of Democratic State Senators who conspired to allow the GOP to control the body in exchange for chairmanships denied to them by Democratic Conference Chairman John Sampson. Carlucci, who is known as “Babyface” for his youthful looks, was a member of the IDC from its formation until its dissolution, and was one of two of its former members to survive the 2018 primaries, pulling off a single-digit victory on the back of bloc voting by Rockland’s Orthodox Jewish voters. Carlucci tried to make amends with Democrats, and campaigned for other Democrats extensively in the November elections before voting for the vast majority of progressive legislation in the new legislative session, but he has still found himself completely frozen out of endorsements from local Democrats in his congressional bid, and many Democrats at the national level are apprehensive at him joining Congress. Democratic voters gave Carlucci lackluster favorability numbers in the only public poll of the race, his fundraising has been weak and although he did manage to win renomination as many of his colleagues went on to defeat, he still lost the Westchester portion of his Senate district by a large margin, a worrying sign considering the degree to which Westchester outvotes Rockland in the 17th District. This is reflected in polling of the congressional race, where Carlucci pulls strong numbers in Rockland, but negligible ones in Westchester. Carlucci’s campaign website is also notably incomplete, with several portions of the “Issues” page being empty. However, Carlucci is a skilled politician who managed to leverage parochial issues to flip a Republican-held Senate seat in the red wave year of 2010, and should not be underestimated.
David Buchwald may be the most conventional candidate in the field. A State Assemblyman and tax attorney, Buchwald is backed by Westchester County Executive George Latimer, many local Democratic committees, and unions, including the SEIU. Buchwald’s claim to fame is his spearheading of efforts to force Trump to unveil his tax returns.
Adam Schleifer has vaulted himself into contention for the Democratic nomination with prodigious spending. In simple terms, Schleifer is absolutely loaded; he would be the 10th wealthiest member of Congress if he were to win the seat. Schleifer’s wealth comes from his father, Leonard Schleifer, the co-founder and chief executive of Regeneron, a pharmaceutical giant responsible for developing drugs, including treatments for arthritis and cancer. In his own right, Schleifer has a career as a prosecutor, as was involved in prosecuting the “Varsity Blues” college admissions scandal. Schleifer has boosted his campaign with large personal loans and donations, allowing him to hammer the airwaves.
Evelyn Farkas is the leading woman in the race, and brings with her extensive foreign policy experience. Best known for her role in the Obama White House as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, Farkas, whose parents were refugees from Communist Hungary, has leaned heavily on her relevant experience in the Capitol, experience which is particularly relevant in light of the concerns about the relationship between Trump and Russia. Farkas’ career has granted her extensive connections on the Hill, and her campaign not only has the support of the womans’ group Emily’s List, but also figures such as former Secretary of State John Kerry and former CIA Director Leon Panetta. Farkas has raised the most cash out of the candidates in the field outside of Schleifer.
Allison Fine, the former chair of NARAL Pro-choice America, is running, but has raised the least of the credible Democratic candidates.
Asha Castleberry-Hernandez, a professor and combat veteran, is also running.
Overall, this race is tight and difficult to predict. However, there appears to be a clear upper-tier of candidates in Jones, Carlucci, Schleifer and Farkas. Internal polling has shown a close race, and a poll released by Data For Progress showed the four bunched up tightly for first, although a more recent poll by PPP found Jones notably ahead of the pack, and he may be a slight favorite heading into the primary. Buchwald appears to be a long-shot, and Fine an also-ran.
New York’s 19th Congressional District: The Catskills and the Hudson Valley
Incumbent: Antonio Delgado (D)
2016 Result: 54-46 R
2018 Result: 51-46 D
52-46 Obama, 51-44 Trump, 53-42 Molinaro
Like so much of upstate New York (or New York north of Westchester, if you prefer), the 19th Congressional District has a strong Republican tradition. Its counties long voted Republican in presidential elections, but many saw a leftward trend during the Clinton years, before snapping back to the right with the 2016 election, and even counties with particularly strong “Yankee Republican” traditions such as Ulster, entirely located in the 19th, and Dutchess, whose more Republican portions are enclosed in the 19th District, saw movement to the right. The district is over a third rural and overwhelmingly white.
Freshman Rep Antonio Delgado narrowly won a crowded primary to take on then Representative John Faso. Delgado, a Rhodes Scholar and former musician who graduated from Harvard Law School, beat several locally established candidates in the primary before going on to defeat Faso in the general. Delgado received national attention in that campaign for being on the receiving end of a racist attack ad in which he was assailed as a “big city rapper,” but has since been a quiet and low-profile member of Congress.
The Republican Primary
Ola Hawatmeh is the leading Republican candidate, and the national GOP’s fallback option after failing to recruit a more formidable challenger. The daughter of Jordinian immigrants and the founder of the fashion company Ola Style, Hawatmeh is also a breast cancer survivor and philanthropist. Hawatmeh has managed to raised enough money to run a serious campaign, but her numbers are still unimpressive, and her fundraising in the pre-primary period saw a shockingly low haul of under $5,000. Hawatmeh has more or less become the GOP favorite by default, after Republicans failed to woo Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro into launching a campaign and a clown car of other candidates with atrocious fundraising bowed out of the race.
Hawatmeh faces a primary opponent in Kyle Van De Water, an Army reservist and lawyer who served as a judge advocate and earned a Bronze star. Van De Water has seen atrocious fundraising of under 20k in total.
Hawatmeh should be a strong favorite in the primary, but a Van De Water victory would serve as another blow for Republicans in a seat that they have seen slip away as a pick-up opportunity despite Trump’s victory in it.
New York’s 22nd Congressional District: Central New York
Incumbent: Anthony Brindisi (D)
2016 Result: 47-41 R
2018 Result: 51-49 D
49-49 Romney, 55-39 Trump, 56-36 Molinaro
New York’s 22nd Congressional District saw a swing in favor of the Democrats during the Clinton years but a more recent swing in the opposite direction as Trump soared in the district, replicating a pattern seen across all of upstate save for Tompkins. The district bears many of the features seen in districts where Trump improved substantially over Romney. It’s overwhelmingly white and has a lower than average rate of educational attainment. The district also has a large number of people of Italian descent, especially around Utica, with the Italian-American portion population being roughly double the national average. Remember that.
Based on the 2016 presidential margin, the 16th Congressional District was the most Republican seat to flip blue in the 2018 midterms, and is the second most Republican seat in the nation held by a Democrat after the 7th District of Minnesota. Incumbent Anthony Brindisi’s impressive victory was well presaged by his iron grip on his State Assembly district, which also voted for Trump by double-digits. A lawyer who formerly served on the Utica School Board, Brindisi developed a moderate reputation (including an A-rating from the NRA). In Congress, he has been a low-key Representative outside of voting for Joe Biden for Speaker of the House, but he has received positive press for his focus on veterans’ issues; he serves on the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee and his legislative focus has been bipartisan bills aimed at helping veterans. He is also the Whip for the Blue Dog Coalition.
The Republican Primary
Claudia Tenney won this seat on her second try in 2016, after coming within single-digits of knocking off incumbent Richard Hanna in the primary in 2014. Hanna represented a final vestigial fragment of New York’s Yankee Republicanism. The moderate Representative supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, the only federally elected Republican to do so, but had drifted from the national party for years, telling female voters to support Democrats during the 2014 midterms. Tenney won the seat in 2016 in a race in which independent candidate Martin Babinec broke into the double-digits, and she quickly became a premier Democratic target, as her staunch conservatism and foot-in-mouth tendencies tarnished her image in her district. Tenney’s most notable gaffe came during her race against Brindisi, where she angered the local Italian-American community by claiming that the Brindisi’s family was “thuggish” and had would use “violence and intimidation” against her staffers, who she urged to “beware of strange cars.” She also made a hysterical comment about most mass shooters being Democrats. Tenney’s narrow loss has not deterred her, and she is making another run for the seat, with the support of Trump, the Conservative Party and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, standing foremost among her robust among establishment support.
Tenney’s main challenger, who has raised roughly a third of what she has (albeit while burning through more funds), is a man she has defeated once before. George Phillips is making his fourth run for Congress. In the 2000s, he was twice the GOP nominee against Democartic Representative Maurice Hinchey in the old 22nd District, and he ran in the 2016 primary to succeed Hanna, losing by double-digits, placing third behind Tenney and Hanna’s chosen successor. Phillips is the former regional Director for the conservative advocacy group Reclaim New York and served as a Broome County Legislator for a brief, appointed stint.
Tenney is a very strong favorite in this race, which suits Democrats just fine.
New York’s 24th Congressional District: Central and Western New York
Incumbent:,John Katko (R)
2016 Result: 60-39 R
2018 Result: 53-47 R
57-41 Obama, 49-45 Clinton, 47-44 Molinaro
New York’s 24th Congressional District has a firm blue anchor in the city of Syracuse. The city, which was the only community in the district carried by Democratic nominee Colleen Deacon in her disastrous 2016 run against Katko, gives both Onondaga County and, to a lesser extent, the entire district, a persistent Democratic tilt. However, the district, which is over four-fifths white, is capable of electing Republicans. While such instances are usually on the back of the other three counties in the district, Onondaga has a strong Republican tradition, and not only does it elect Republicans in local elections (who control every countywide office except for Comptroller and the County Legislature), but it can also vote for Republicans on the federal level under favorable circumstances.
Incumbent Republican John Katko is easily one of the most electorally formidable Republicans in the House of Representatives. A former federal prosecutor for the US Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of New York, Katko focused on gang and corruption prosecution, a background which has proven an asset in his congressional runs. Katko defeated Democratic Representative Dan Maffei in 2014 by an astronomical 19-point margin. While Katko had trailed for most of the cycle, a late October Siena College poll that placed him ahead of Maffei by 10 points proved to be one of many harbingers towards the end of the election cycle that portended the approaching Democratic wipeout. Katko won reelection again in 2016, then by a margin exceeding 20 points. While his margin dropped significantly in 2018, he nonetheless became one of three Republicans to win a district that Hillary Clinton had carried four years earlier, and the only one to do so in a constituency with a Democratic Partisan Voting Index. Katko has generally been a moderate Republican in the House. He was one of three Republicans to vote in favor of the 116th Congress’ rules package, co-sponsored the Equality Act, and voted against the repeal of Obamacare. However, he voted affirmatively for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
The Democratic Primary
Dana Balter was more or less an accidental nominee when she was the Democraic standard bearer against Katko in 2018. After local Democrats failed to recruit a strong challenge to Katko, Balter, a visiting teacher professor at Syracuse University and disability advocate, stood out the most among the field of C-list candidates who were running, and she was able to consolidate the support of the County Democratic Committees. However national Democrats chose to back Juanita Perez Williams, a last minute entrant who struggled to make the ballot. Perez Williams, who had lost a general election for Mayor of Syracuse, the Democratic heart of the district, had already declined to run, and even attended a fundraiser for Balter days before entering. However, local Democrats defied the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and were able to carry Balter to an easy primary victory before her general election loss to Katko. However, Balter has found herself struggling with local support in her second run. Of the four County Democratic Committees who backed her, only the relatively small Oswego County’s Committee has extended her their support a second time, and she has bled support for elected officials to her primary opponent. However, Balter, who argues that the swing the district saw away from Katko in 2018 demonstrates her electability credentials, has released an internal poll showing her with a lead of just under 30 points in the primary.
Francis Conole is a Navy Veteran and former advisor to Defense Secretaries Jim Mattis and Ash Carter. A fourth-generation Syracusan who has narrowly outraised Balter, Conole has run ads implicitly contrasting his roots in the area with the Connecticut-born Balter. Conole has poached a substantial amount of the local establishment support that Balter used to overcome the national party’s intervention in the 2018 primary. He has the backing of the Onondaga and Cayuga County Demcoartic Committees, as well as a great number of local elected officials, including several members of the Syracuse Common Council. In stark contrast to the debacle when they waded in during the previous cycle, the DCCC has stayed neutral in the race.
Conole has run a strong campaign, but there is little doubt Balter remains in the driver’s seat. While many Democrats view Balter as a weak nominee and have little desire for a retread nomination, her internal poll is likely correct in pegging her as a heavy favorite to take a second shot at Katko.
New York’s 25th Congressional District: Monroe County
Incumbent: Joe Morelle (D)
2016 Result: 56-44 D
2018 Result: 59-41 D
59-39 Obama, 56-37 Clinton, 52-42 Cuomo
Monroe County has a population of over 700,000 individuals, and as such is, it supports the entirety of the 25th Congressional District, centered on the city of Rochester. The city is diverse and plurality-black, although it makes up less than a third of the County’s population, which has a large white majority overall. While, like so much of upstate New York, the district has a long history of Yankee Republicanism, Monroe County has long been fertile ground for Democrats, and in recent years they have made great strides in elections in county government, and are within a hair's-breadth of taking control of the Legislature. The district leans strongly, but not overwhelmingly, Democratic, and Republicans have made recent attempts to target the House seat, but without success despite a near-upset victory during the 2014 midterms.
Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle has attracted little attention in Congress, and his career in Albany was a similarly dull tale. A typical machine politician, Morelle was elected to the State Assembly in 1990, serving as Majority Leader (a position typically given to a token upstate Democrat by the Assembly’s City-centric majority conference) from 2013 until his election to Congress. Morelle’s unremarkableness stands in stark contrast to his predecessor, Louis Slaughter, a trailblazing progressive woman with a litany of accomplishments to her name. Morelle, who skated into Congress following her death via an easy plurality primary win over a divided field, has been criticized for turning a blind eye to sexual assault allegations made against an aide to then-Speaker Sheldon Silver. While the accuser, Elizabeth Crothers, supported journalist Rachel Barnhart in the primary, she endorsed Morelle in the general election against Republican neurosurgeon Jim Maxwell following a series of conversations about sexual harassment and assault.
The Democratic Primary
One of the candidates who ran in the field against Morelle is taking a second shot at the seat. Robin Wilt, who placed third with 17 percent of the vote in the open primary two years ago and was the Democratic nominee against local Republican titan Joseph Robach, has infused her longshot bid with 70,000 dollars of self-funding in the final stretch of the campaign. The Brighton Town Board member and daughter of Guyanese immigrants is running at Morelle distinctly from the left, brandishing a platform which sports support for the Green New Deal and Medicare for All (while Morelle supported single-payer healthcare during his stint in the Assembly and on the campaign trail, he has not cosponsred the House bill). Wilt has the endorsement of Jumaane Williams, and appears to identify as a socialist.
Wilt’s campaign is a long-shot, and appears to have little chance of succeeding, but her willingness to put down her own money in the final stretch raises the possibility she may see an upset within reach. Morelle will still likely win, but the margin merits watching.
New York’s 27th Congressional District: Western New York
Incumbent: None
2016 Result: 67-33 R
2018 Result: 49-49 R
55-43 Romney, 60-35 Trump, 61-34 Molinaro
New York’s 27th Congressional District is the only one in the state that Democrats can’t quite seem to crack. While Chuck Schumer won it during his 2016 reelection campaign, where it bore the distinction of granting him his most anemic margin of victory, it was the only district to not vote for Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s or Comptroller Tom DiNapoli’s reelection bids in 2018. Staunchly conservative, the district was briefly represented by Democrat Kathy Hochul after she won a special election in 2011, it turned her out after being made more Republican in redistricting. Even as Republican incumbent Chris Collins became embroiled in an insider trading scandal, he won reelection by less than a point.
Chris Collins resigned on the first of October in 2019, and pleaded guilty before the day had passed. The seat has been vacant since he left office, and a special election will be held concurrently with the primary to fill the seat until the start of the next Congress. Nate McMurray, a former Grand Island Town Supervisor, was the nominee against Collins in 2018, and is the Democratic nominee for both the special and general elections. The Republican nominee for the special election is State Senator Chris Jacobs, who was picked by a cabal of party insiders for the nomination. Jacobs is a strong favorite over McMurray, but even if he vanquishes his opponent in the special election, he faces a severe risk of not serving out a full term should the Republican primary no go his way.
The Republican Primary
Chris Jacobs’ selection as the Republican nominee for the special election caused noticeable acrimony among local conservatives, but the choice was not surprising. Jacobs is a long-time political insider whose family owns the Boston Bruins and Delaware North hospitality company. Chris Jacobs served as New York’s Secretary of State for several years under former Governor George Pataki, before winning an election as Erie County Clerk; in 2016, he flipped an open Democratic-leaning Senate seat red by a wide margin. Jacobs’ strong electoral performance no doubt played a role in local Republicans favoring him, but his history as a moderate in his past runs swiftly was converted to a liability, and Jacobs has pivoted hard to the right to shore up his support among conservative Republicans. Jacobs has the support of Donald Trump in both the special election and the primary.
An attorney and former judge, Beth Parlato has launched a scorched-earth campaign against Jacobs, relentlessly pushing at his weaknesses while blasting her own conservative credentials and positioning herself as a conservative counterweight to Nancy Pelosi and AOC. Parlato has the backing of the New York Conservative Party and has gone on TV to attack Jacobs, causing some consternation among Republicans that she could weaken Jacobs enough to enable a McMurray upset. Parlato also filed a voter fraud complaint against Jacobs, which was dismissed by the Erie County District Attorney, a Democrat. Parlato has been outspent by a factor of greater than 2-to-1, but has nonetheless had more than enough cash to get her message out.
Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw has a strong background as Erie County Comptroller, winning elections in the Democratic-leaning County despite being an outspoken and combative conservative who is effusive in his devotion to Trump. However, Mychajliw has raised far less money than either Jacobs or Parlato, and has been unable to participate in the on-air warfare between Jacobs and Parlato. Mychajliw has compared his campaign strategy to the 2008 Democratic primary for this seat, where an underdog candidate snuck up between two opponents who relentlessly attacked each other, but is generally agreed upon to be a longshot.
Jacobs should be a favorite in this race, but Parlato’s campaign has been vicious, and unlike Caldarera’s campaign in NY-11, she has had the resources to make it worrisome for Jacobs.
There are a few primaries I want to touch upon despite not feeling they merited full previews.
In NY-05 incumbent Gregory Meeks (D), the boss of the Queens Democratic Party, faces a primary challenge from poorly funded socialist Shaniyat Chowdhury. Meeks is in little danger, but an underwhelming margin could encourage a stronger challenge in the future.
In NY-06 Grace Meng (D), the first Asian-American elected to Congress from New York faces two cash-strapped challengers. Meng has demonstrated strong appeal in primaries before, but this is her first primary since she was initially elected, so it may warrant a quick glance on election night.
In NY-13 the Dominican-American incumbent Adriano Espaillat (D) faces the African-American primary challenge he avoided last cycle. James Felton Keith is challenging him in a district typically defined by Harlem, but which has seen its Hispanic community become dominant in recent years. JFK is better funded than other primary challengers, and while he is generally agreed to have little chance to topple the incumbent, a close race could give ambitious Harlem pols a reason to try to climb the ladder by primarying Espaillat.
Well, congratulations. You made it to the end of this preview. Whether you skimmed or read every word, I hope you enjoyed reading it, and found it informative. New York’s primaries promise to be exciting, and I hope you’ll take the time to find out how they pan out. One warning though. With New Yorkers’ use of absentee ballots skyrocketing due to Covid-19, and New York forbids the counting of absentee ballots until all of said ballots have arrived. Don’t expect any close primaries to be determined on election night.
Thanks for your attention,
123NY
Edit log:
- Added context for the possibility of a Ruben Diaz Sr. general election loss at the suggestion of MichaelNY
- Added information about the primary date at the behest of RenderBot
- Made two small corrections, one correcting Michael Blake’s number of endorsements from US Reps (8, rather than 7) and correcting Jerry Nadler’s stance on the Iran deal; he supported it