North Carolina was once part of the old Democratic “Solid South” but that began to change in the post-World War II era. The state was something of a battleground in 1952, 1956, 1960, and 1964 with the Republicans becoming more competitive. In 1968 Hubert Humphrey finished third as Richard Nixon carried the state, and George McGovern got buried in 1972. That year was also the first Senate victory of the loathsome Jesse Helms, one of the people who convinced me to leave the Republican Party. Helms represented the dark, ugly Old South side of the state. (For those unfamiliar with this utterly vile person, you can find good background on him here.) Southerner Jimmy Carter won the state easily in 1976, but lost it narrowly in 1980. In 1984 Ronald Reagan won a huge victory in North Carolina, and George H. W. Bush won easily in 1988. Bill Clinton came close in 1992 and 1996. George W. Bush won easily in both 2000 and 2004.
But in 2008, something was different. The tumultuous term of GW Bush, a national economic crisis, demographic and cultural shifts within the state, and energized Democratic voters helped Barack Obama squeak out victory by a margin of .32%. In 2012 Obama lost the state by 2 points, and in 2016 Hillary Clinton lost it by 3. But gone are the days of the big Republican blowout victories. North Carolina is competitive. NORTH CAROLINA IS WINNABLE. Let’s see how.
North Carolina counties Clinton won in 2016:
Anson (55.6% of the vote), Bertie (61.8%), Buncombe (54.3%), Chatham (52.9%), Cumberland (56.2%), Durham (77.7%), Edgecombe (65.2%), Forsyth (53.0%), Guilford (58.0%), Halifax (62.6%), Hertford (67.8%), Hoke (53.4%), Mecklenburg, the home of Charlotte, (62.3%), Northampton (62.4%), Orange (72.8%), Pasquotank (49.5%), Pitt (51.9%), Scotland (52.5%), Wake, the home of Raleigh, (57.4%), Warren (65.2%), Washington (56.9%), Watauga (47.2%), and Wilson (51.6%).
North Carolina counties where Clinton was within 5 points of Trump:
Granville (47.2%), Lenoir (47.1%), Martin (48.9%, just .4% under Trump), Nash (48.7%, just .2% under Trump), New Hanover (45.6%), and Robeson (46.5%).
In the small rural counties, we got whomped (as we did elsewhere). (Thanks once again to Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.)
Who turned out to vote in 2016 in North Carolina?
This should get your attention:
Nearly half of North Carolina’s registered voters between ages 18 and 25 didn’t bother to cast a ballot in November, according to a new analysis released Thursday.
The advocacy group Democracy North Carolina, which lobbies for voting access, analyzed the state’s election data and found that some demographic groups had far better turnout than others, while overall voter turnout was at 69 percent of registered voters – just 1 percentage point behind the record from 2008…
The state’s youngest voters had the worst turnout of the demographic groups in the study. Just 53 percent of registered voters in the 18-to-25 age group cast ballots, down from 55 percent in 2012 and 60 percent in 2008.
The article goes on to add that the state’s oldest voters, those over 65, turned out at a rate of 78%.
This should get your attention, too.:
In 2004, two-thirds of registered white voters cast ballots, while a little under 60 percent of registered black voters cast ballots. But in the Obama ground game strategy, registered black turnout surpassed white turnout, with a two-point difference in both 2008 and 2012. Perhaps the difference in Obama winning in 2008 and losing in 2012 was the decline in turnout from “all other races” (Asian, native American, multi-racial, and all others/unknown racial voters).
This year, the drop in both black turnout and the increase in white turnout could be another contributor to the Trump victory in the state, and speaks to the lack of Obama on the ticket…
However, among current registered North Carolina voters who voted in 2012 but didn’t show this year, 46 percent were registered Democrats, 28 percent were unaffiliated, and 26 percent were Republicans. Of the registered Democrats, 82 percent were black voters; if these 169,800 black Democrats had shown up, Trump’s margin of victory could have been significantly smaller, with nearly 90 percent of black voters casting ballots for Clinton, per exit polls.
Sobering, but it gives us necessary information.
The North Carolina Republican Party is one of the most brutally partisan and dishonest in the nation, and that’s saying something. The Republicans in NC have done everything in their power to rig elections in their favor. (You can read good summaries of the situation here and here.) In the fine Jesse Helms tradition, voting restrictions have been aimed heavily at black voters. North Carolina’s odious voter ID law was struck down by a U.S. Appeals Court:
In its ruling, the appeals court said the law was intentionally designed to discriminate against black people. North Carolina legislators had requested data on voting patterns by race and, with that data in hand, drafted a law that would "target African-Americans with almost surgical precision," the court said.
The state appealed to the Supreme Court, which refused to reinstate the law in time for elections.
And the right-wing fanatics from Judicial Watch are once more working on one of the things conservatives love best: disenfranchising black voters.
So you can see what we’re up against.
But there are those who are fighting back, and fighting back hard—and effectively. Join them, and we can turn North Carolina Blue this November.
This is a BIG one. FLIP NC. They’re doing EXACTLY what we need to do: direct contact with voters. Kossack highacidity has posted an important notification about FLIP NC :
FLIP NC IS A GRASSROOTS GROUP USING TARGETED, DIRECT VOTER OUTREACH TO ELECT PROGRESSIVES IN NORTH CAROLINA.
Reverend William Barber and the Moral Mondays movement have been, and are, absolutely crucial. Barber’s organization is called Repairers of the Breach. They are staunch defenders of voting rights. Help them fight for justice in North Carolina and elsewhere.
Indivisible is active in North Carolina. Here’s where to find them.
The North Carolina Democratic Party is looking for people who want to be involved. Help them out!
All of the county Democratic organizations in North Carolina are listed here.
Check out The County-to-County Campaign, a true grassroots effort. (Thank you heiderose1.)
Look into You Can Vote, which fights voter suppression in North Carolina. (Thank you kkbDIA.)
ActLocal has a treasure trove of progressive North Carolina organizations listed right here.
Join The Action Network which will link you into progressive organizations all over the country.
By the way, take a look at this Politico summary of the 2018 election in North Carolina. Scroll down through the House candidates, and look for a column that measures voter shifts. NC was significantly more Democratic in many areas in 2018 than it was in 2016. The effects of gerrymandering in NC are severe, although recent court decisions have partially mitigated it. But 2018 showed North Carolina is winnable. This is eye opening:
Although the Democratic Party received the majority of votes statewide for both the state Senate and state House, the Republican Party still holds the majority in both N.C. chambers for the next two-year cycle.
If you live in North Carolina, use the site NC-GoVote to check your eligibility to vote. (Thank you dsnottselliott.)
EVERYTHING you’d want to know about voting in North Carolina is right here.
And, as always—
Try these links.
POSTCARDS TO VOTERS.
VOTE FORWARD’S LETTERS TO VOTERS.
TEXT OUT THE VOTE.
THE MoveOn TEXT TEAM
And don’t close the door on canvassing just yet! There are safe ways in which this can be done!
Our Target Groups: WHERE THE VOTES ARE
ID REQUIREMENTS FOR EVERY STATE, HOW TO OBTAIN VOTER IDs
1. Information from The National Conference of State Legislatures, located here. This is an excellent source.
2. Information from Ballotpedia, here. This has a wealth of detail.
3. VoteRiders will help people obtain voter IDs. Take a look here.
ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUIREMENTS
Vote.org
Absentee and Early Voting
REGISTERING TO VOTE
1. State voting requirements can be found at U.S. Vote Foundation, located here.
2. You can register people to vote at Vote.Org, located right here.
3. You can not only register to vote at this site, you can check your current eligibility, right here.
WORKING WITH DEMOCRATIC GROUPS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL
1. Act Local put this guide out last year. It has plenty of good information, and I’m sure they’re already cranking up for 2020. Take a look here.
2. You want to be part of a fighting organization? Check out Indivisible, right here.
3. Check out Wave 2020, right here. Their list of local organizations is here.
4. Take a look at SwingLeft, right here. And their swing state project is HERE.
5. The Action Network has links to let you volunteer in key states.
FOR AMERICANS ABROAD AND MEMBERS OF THE MILITARY
And Democrats Abroad has valuable information.
And take a look here:
The Campaign Workshop: GOTV for Democrats
Nuts & Bolts, right here on DKos.
Progressives Everywhere
National Democratic Training Committee
Progressive Turnout Project
For the Win (county-wide GOTV)
Daily Kos Groups (from Kossack mettle fatigue)
Sister District Project (for winning state legislatures)
Joe Biden’s Take Action Page.
And MICHELLE OBAMA is ready to go BIG on GOTV!
Here are ALL of the state Democratic parties!
We need your help BIG TIME this year! Never think we’ve got this in the bag. We need to be fighting EVERY day.
And your money is vital as well. ActBlue is a handy-dandy way to contribute.
OK, you have the information. Let’s turn North Carolina blue this November. And as I always, say,
GET OUT THE VOTE, GET OUT THE VOTE, GET OUT THE DAMN VOTE!
