This is the fifth in an ongoing series, updated periodically, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. This week, another new site is added to our roundup: the Princeton Election Consortium.
If it was good to be Joe Biden last week, it’s even better to be Joe right now. There’s so much good news it makes me anxious, because I start feeling like this can’t possibly keep up. And yet — Trump’s presidency is such a dismal, corrupt, and incompetent failure, it’s equally hard to imagine how he reverses all this.
First, our newcomer to forecasting the Presidential race:
Princeton Election Consortium: Biden 354, Trump 184. The site technique is described as follows: “Detailed explanation to come. Basically, it’s the same as the 2016 calculation – a simple snapshot of polls to give a sharp picture of where the race is on any single day, to allow optimization of resource allocation.” I’m slightly confused because there is more than one spread presented on the site. The headline gives you the EVs for Biden reported above. Then, on the right-hand side of the page, a histogram labeled as the probability of the exact number of electoral votes states that Biden’s current median EV count is 347. Finally, a chronological graph running from March through November shows today’s projection as 189 EVs for Trump, which would yield 349 for Biden. On the other hand, any of these results qualifies as a massive Biden landslide. I’ll update everyone on the PEC methods once they post more information. A link to 270towin.com's site also provides a map described as based on the PEC model. The weakest D states are GA, NC, OH and PA; the weakest R states are AR, IA, NH and TX.
A number of our returning sites have updated,and the results are...encouraging.
CNN: No update. Biden 232, Trump 205, 101 tossups (AZ, FL, MI, PA, NC, WI).
The Economist: Updated 6/25. Biden 341, Trump 197 (a shift of 6 towards Biden). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are AZ, GA, IA, NC and OH.
Electoral-vote.com: Updated 6/25. Biden 368, Trump 170, 0 tossups (a shift of 16 towards Biden). Weakest D states are AZ, GA, NC, NV, OH; weakest R states are AR, IA, MO, TX.
Plural Vote: Updated 6/25. Biden 335, Trump 203 (a shift of 19 towards Biden). Weakest D states are AZ, NC, NV, PA; weakest R states are IA, OH, TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: Updated 6/25; latest map is now found here. Biden 289, Trump 163, 86 tossups (a shift of 18 away from Trump, as Bitecofer moves OH into the toss-up column). Tossups are now FL, GA, IA, NC, OH, and 1 Congressional district each in ME and NE.
Inside Elections: No update. Biden 269, Trump 204, 65 tossups (AZ, FL, NC, WI).
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Updated 6/25. Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 tossups (a shift of 20 towards Biden). Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, WI and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Cook Political Report: Updated 6/19. Biden 248, Trump 204, 86 tossups (a shift of 16 towards Biden). Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, PA and WI.
Real Clear Politics: Biden 222, Trump 125, 191 tossups (a shift of 25 towards Biden). RCP continues to be remarkably loose in defining states as tossups.
With 10 sites now tracked, 5 predict an outright Biden win, 4 of them with 300+ electoral votes. Two more put Biden right at the cusp with 268 or 269 EVs. The 3 remaining models all give Biden a lead, although assigning enough tossups to keep him under the 270 EV threshold.
Now let’s look at the individual states considered tossups by each model or (if tossups/ties are not allowed) weakest for each candidate; once again we’ll leave out those named only by RCP because they’re so wildly out of line compared to all the other models. There are a total of 14 states named by at least one of the other models as either a tossup or as one of the weakest leaners. However, we’ll disregard MI, NH, and MO because each of them only comes up once across the remaining models. I’ll provide the current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP for each state, listing the states in order by the largest to smallest margins for Biden.
(1) WI: Spreads are Biden +9.7 (538) and Biden +8.0 (RCP).
(2) NV: Spreads are Biden +9.0 (538) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(3) PA: Spreads are Biden +8.1 (538) and Biden +6.3 (RCP).
(4) FL: Spreads are Biden +7.3 (538) and Biden +6.8 (RCP).
(5) AZ: Spreads are Biden +4.9 (538) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(6) NC: Spreads are Biden +2.9 (538) and Biden +2.4 (RCP).
(7) OH: Spreads are Biden +2.8 and a tie (RCP).
(8) GA: Spreads are Biden +1.5 (538) and Trump +4.3 (RCP).
(9) IA: Spreads are Biden +0.4 (538) and Trump +1.5 (RCP).
(10) TX: Spreads are Trump +0.2 (538) and Trump +2.0 (RCP).
(11) AR: There is only a single poll of Arkansas, which appears on both sites, with Trump +2.0.
At what point does a state move from “toss-up” or “in contention” status to actually leaning one way or the other? If the MOE for a state poll is somewhere in the 4-5% range, then states like WI and PA should really be recognized as leaning towards Biden, and possibly FL as well (NV too; as I’ve previously argued, it seems almost inconceivable that a state that voted for Clinton in 2016 will be so impressed by the last 3.5 years that it will now swing to Trump). AZ is on the verge of moving into the “lean D” column as well, and with Kelly thumping McSally by a double-digit polling average in the Senate race there, Biden should benefit from that matchup too).
Perhaps the best sign for Biden is that the entire Midwest is shifting strongly in his direction. The polls in MI are even more favorable than those in WI and PA, and both IA and OH are clearly tossups now. All he has to do is win MI, WI, and PA and hold the other Clinton states from 2016, and he’s the President. Everything else is icing on the cake. The southern Atlantic coast (NC, GA, and FL) should be Biden’s secondary target; add those EVs and he’s well on his way to crushing Trump in the electoral college. My entirely unsolicited advice: barnstorm the Midwest and spend most of the remaining time on the Southeastern coast and in AZ. But I’m sure Biden’s staff can read all the polls as well as we can, and will look for every opportunity to expand the political battlefield. Discuss! What are your preferred states to target, and why?