After weeks of insisting that he wouldn’t even consider going back, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has paused the reopening and announced restoration of some restrictions that have been recently removed. “Keep Texas Open” hasn’t just been a rallying cry for Republicans demeaning the threat of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of lockdowns, it’s become a motto for both Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and congressional Republicans around the state. Of the states where governors issued a stay-at-home order, Texas’ was among the briefest—Abbott’s order both began and ended in April. The order was in effect for such a short time, that the rate of new cases was higher at the end of the period than it was coming in. But for the next month, a shadow of that lockdown remained, with the effects of April’s stay-at-home being seen in the slow rise in numbers through May.
The problem is that as those relatively good numbers were coming in, Abbott and others were reading them as a confirmation that the reopening was going just dandy, rather than taking them as the result of the April lockdown. Abbott dropped restrictions on hair and nail salons on May 8. Gyms were allowed to reopen on May 18. Restaurants and bars were back by May 22. Like other states, Texas kept rolling on, despite not meeting guidelines, gliding through phase 1, and phase 2. Even though numbers were already creeping up again, schools were allowed to open for summer sessions on June 1, and as late as June 12, Abbott was still cranking the knob hard in the direction of “open.” And then the delayed reaction of all his decisions exploded all over the state.
No matter how many times it’s made clear, politicians don’t seem to get the delayed connection between actions taken to address COVID-19 and the people lining up for hospital beds. Following exposure, it can take 2-14 days before the first symptom of the disease appears. It can take another ten days or longer for those symptoms to go from relatively mild to critical or severe. The effects of any step taken in reopening can’t begin to be seen for weeks. Unfortunately, this delay also affects any action taken to reduce the spread of COVID-19. If everyone in Texas hunkered-in-place right now, cases would still be staggering into ERs and Houston and Dallas right up until the end of July. There are cases out there right now that haven’t developed symptoms yet. There are cases that will never develop symptoms but which can still spread the disease to others.
Effective handling of this pandemic means imposing rules and holding them in place for an extended period. It means waiting for weeks after each turn of the “reopen” screw to see the effect. It means being willing to turn the dial back at the first sign the barriers to transmission have been lowered too far. Abbott has failed on this, but he’s far from the only one.
Unfortunately, turning the dial back and finding that the level of change was not enough also takes weeks to discover. Abbott’s slight reduction in reopening speed on Thursday will leave in place almost all of the changes that have been implemented since the end of the stay-at-home order. That means malls remain open, gyms remain open, all restaurants, and many bars remain open. Abbott’s reversal includes reducing the capacity of restaurants and closing some bars, it requires that local authorities approve gatherings of more than 100 people, and it closes “rafting and tubing businesses” which … okay.
Meanwhile, even as the state government in Texas begins to take the rising threat seriously, it’s also saying goodbye to the last federally supported testing stations in the state. Despite the surge of new cases, the need for expanded testing, and a series of requests from everyone from local mayors to Ted Cruz, it seems that Trump is serious about not wanting to provide any testing, as the last seven stations in Texas are set to close at the end of the month.
None of the changes Abbott has made are sufficient—especially as he continues to stand by an executive order that prohibits local authorities from mandating the one strategy that could have the most immediate effect: universal wearing of masks. Exactly how much, if any, effect the changes made on Friday affect outcomes won’t be known for weeks.
During his Friday appearance, Mike Pence insisted that it was not reopening that was causing an increase in cases because there were “weeks” between that reopening and the current spike. But that period of weeks is exactly what should be expected. The stay-at-home period cases a “shadow” over the weeks that follow, exactly because the reducing in transmission rates from such orders is real. It’s only after that effect has expired, that cases begin to rise sharply.
The best thing that can be said isn’t really that Abbott’s announcement brings any response that will be helpful, but that, for the moment at least, he at least recognizes that he should stop turning the dial that makes things worse.