I’ve been saying for some time now that Donald Trump is losing, and that used to scare people. Because 2016 is still too raw, too painful. But the evidence is pretty clear at this point. Trump is losing, and there are myriad reasons why. Heck, every day new reasons arise. Did you hear the one about how Trump made nice with Russian strongman Vladimir Putin after his administration found out that Russia was paying the Taliban a bounty for dead American soldiers in Afghanistan? But that new impeachable (if not 25th Amendment-able) scandal hasn’t even begun to register with the broader public. Here are five reasons why Trump is already in such deep crap today:
1. American voters strongly disapprove of the federal government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. Trump may pretend things are back to normal, but with nearly 130,000 dead and record numbers of new cases being recorded, his inaction and negligence hasn’t gone unnoticed, nor his rank inability to muster even the barest pretenses of empathy.
With barely a third of voters satisfied, it’s no surprise that his numbers in the expanded cast of battleground states are absolutely abysmal.
Those states that cling to the fiction that Trump is doing a good job responding to the pandemic total only 72 electoral votes, and Idaho, Missouri, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama are right on the edge of flipping. Thus, if this election was being decided on his actual job performance in the deadliest disaster to hit our nation since World War II, he’d be facing the prospects of a Walter Mondale-style landslide defeat. Lucky for him, we’re too hyperpartisanized as a country to make that possible. (Though who knows, looking the other way at Russia paying bounties for dead American service members might have dislodged a few people, one would hope.)
2. Black Lives Matters is broadly popular. Support for the Black Lives Matter movement has receded a bit from the all-time highs a few weeks ago, but the movement remains wildly popular:
That slight dip in support comes from—try not to act too surprised—white people (and specifically, those over the age of 34). Yet that’s not enough to reverse the damage his bizarre anti-Black Lives position is doing to Trump’s chances in the battleground states.
It’s no coincidence this map looks like the one above, though in this one, he ekes out even fewer electoral votes than the pandemic one—a measly 64.
So in the two biggest issues facing the country today—a mass death event and a movement to stop the mass killings of Black Americans—Trump finds himself on the most polar opposite of opposites possible.
3. People think America is headed in the wrong direction. Duh.
You really have to try hard to f’ up that hard, but Trump manages to outdo himself every single day.
You ready for the 50-state map on this question?
If it looks like the country is on fire, it’s because the country is on fire. You can do the math on how many electoral votes that would give Trump.
4. Voters think the economy is getting worse. Tens of millions have lost their jobs, and the pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the economy, both here and abroad. Certain segments of the economy, like tourism, are toast. And Republicans in Washington refuse to provide help for desperate families.
On this question, Republicans close ranks and have decided to believe Trump’s b.s. about the economy roaring back.
The core battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all soured on the nation’s economy prospects. So are the reach states of Alaska (really!), Iowa, and Texas. The other two reach battleground states—Montana (really!) and Ohio are bare pluralities.
5. Support for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is at a record high as Republicans ask the U.S. Supreme Court to invalidate the law. What kind of moron would ask the justices to destroy a law providing health care to tens of millions of Americans in the middle of a global mass-death event, and particularly one grossly mismanaged here at home? Trump. That’s who.
What’s extra crazy is that 49%—virtually half of America!—wants the law expanded. And 53% overall support the law. Only the 36% Trump deplorable base wants to repeal it.
So there you have it—on the pandemic, on Black Lives Matter, on the economy, and on health care Donald Trump is on the exact wrong side of American voters. And these aren’t even close issues! In each one of them there is a clear American majority, and Trump is on the exact opposite side of them—and obnoxiously so. Thus, people aren’t happy with the direction of the country, because they have no reason to be. It’s a real shitshow, and Trump is at the helm, making sure that everything is even worse than it would otherwise be.
So there you have it. That’s why Donald Trump is losing.
And if you’re wondering why Republicans in the House, Senate, and down ballot are also struggling and losing, it’s because they all still support Trump, too scared to do anything about the havoc he’s wreaking on our country.
