We at Civiqs have been tracking public attitudes around Black Lives Matter for three years. So we have something no one else does—we can see where we came from, and what impact the current wave of racial justice protests is having on public opinion. And, the short version of it is, the protests are having a dramatic positive impact on the fight for racial justice:
Clearly, we can see that the Charlottesville rally had a big impact on support for Black Lives Matter. It’s a shame we weren’t polling prior to that, but we can clearly see how Charlottesville catalyzed a slow and steady progression of support, as well as a gradual decline in opposition. Thus, prior to the murders of Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, and George Floyd, 42% supported the Black Lives Matter movement, 31% opposed, and 25% were indifferent.
That all changed this past weekend, as the nation convulsed in anger at the systemic mistreatment of the Black community at the hands of the police. The nation’s hiding-in-a-bunker president, Donald Trump, has responded to the protests the only way he knows how—by further stoking the fires of division, hatred, and violence. And we, as a country, don’t have a great deal of faith in the nation’s white population to process these events in a way that is positive and heals wounds. How could we? Only 37% of white Americans voted for Hillary Clinton!
Yet our daily tracking poll shows that support isn’t just up, it’s way up.
For the first time, the Black Lives Matter movement has majority support among white people:
From the day that Arbery was killed to Monday, support for Black Lives Matter is up a net 15 points. And the weekend protests, despite the efforts of Trump and conservative media to paint them as threatening race riots, did nothing to arrest that growing support. Instead, support keeps growing. The protests are working.
The movement even has majority support (39-30) among non-college whites—Trump’s strongest demographics!
It’s impossible to stress just how mind-blowing these numbers are, particularly given the glacial pace of public opinion on matters of race and justice. Here’s the net shift among some key demographics, from March 13, when Breonna Taylor was murdered, to yesterday:
NET APPROVAL |
3/13 |
6/2 |
DIFFERENCE |
All |
+11 |
+24 |
+13 |
Men |
-5 |
+10 |
+15 |
Women |
+26 |
+37 |
+11 |
White |
-4 |
+11 |
+15 |
White women |
+11 |
+24 |
+13 |
White men |
-20 |
-3 |
+17 |
Republicans |
-58 |
-41 |
+17 |
Republican women |
-52 |
-36 |
+16 |
Republican men |
-62 |
-45 |
+17 |
White +65 |
-13 |
+1 |
+14 |
The biggest changes were among Republicans and white men (really, statistically the same thing). Now, the chart for Republicans is still ugly:
So 11-52 isn’t something to brag about, except that it is.
1.) The protests, rather than energizing Republicans and giving them an electoral boost, have done the exact opposite: they have actually brought some of them along in understanding the challenges that Black America faces.
2.) Trump has resorted to the ‘60s playbook, calling for violence against protesters. Once again, he is out of sync with American public opinion. Seeing the numbers above, it’s clear why his own approval ratings have taken a hit the past couple of months. These protests aren’t going to save him. Quite to the contrary, they are further exposing his glaring inability to lead our nation.
And best of all:
3.) THE PROTESTS ARE WORKING. It’s working with all groups, and it’s even working with Republicans.
This is a daily tracking poll, so we can check in periodically to see if any sort of backlash eventually takes place. But as of now? It’s been an unmitigated success. A community rose up in anger and defiance, and allies joined side-by-side. Despite efforts at sabotage and opportunistic looting and violence, the American public has seen beyond the sensationalism and recognized the real factors driving this resistance movement.
And America approves.
Bless everyone fighting the good fight. You are all heroes, you are changing hearts and minds, and you are making history.