Minnesota Democrats' 2018 successes give party plenty of targets in GOP-held state Senate

Democratic Sen. Tina Smith carried 39 of Minnesota's 67 State Senate districts

Both chambers of the Minnesota legislature will be major battlegrounds in 2020, as Democrats seek to hold their 75-59 edge in the state House and undo Team Red’s 35-32 majority in the state Senate. To get a better idea of what the playing field will look like, we’re releasing new data that was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby of the 2018 election for governor and both U.S. Senate seats calculated by legislative district.

We’ll start with a look at the upper chamber. While Hillary Clinton won just 28 of the 67 Senate seats despite carrying Minnesota 47-45 in 2016, Team Blue did considerably better across the board two years later. Indeed, gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz and Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith carried all of the Clinton seats as well as several more.

Smith won her special election by a 53-42 margin and took 39 districts, while Republican Karin Housley carried the other 28―a mirror image of the Clinton/Trump numbers from two years before. Walz won the gubernatorial race 54-42 against Republican Jeff Johnson, and he won all of Smith’s seats as well as an additional two. Klobuchar, meanwhile, pulled off a landslide 60-36 victory and took a total of 52 of the 67 Senate seats: Altogether, Klobuchar carried all of those Walz constituencies, plus an additional 11.

Eight Republicans sit in Walz/Smith districts, though only two of them supported Clinton. The two Walz/Housley seats, including Housley’s own district, are also held by Team Red, and both also went for Donald Trump. The one Democrat in a Trump/Johnson/Housley district is Matt Little, whose SD-58 backed Trump 54-38 before going for Housley and Johnson 52-44 and 51-45, respectively; Klobuchar, though, won 53-44 here.

Over in the House, Clinton took just 62 of the 134 seats, but once again, Walz, Klobuchar, and Smith carried all her constituencies as well as plenty more. Smith carried 76 districts to Housley’s 58; Walz once again took all of Smith’s seats, as well as another two. Klobuchar, for her part, took 102 of the 134 seats.

Just a pair of Republicans sit in Walz/Smith districts, while both Walz/Housley seats are also held by Team Red: All four of these seats also supported Trump. And just like in the Senate, there’s one Trump/Johnson/Housley seat in Democratic hands. After backing Trump 57-35, state Rep. Paul Marquart’s HD-4B went for Johnson 53-44 and Housley by a smaller 49-46. (Smith ran further ahead of Walz here than in any other House seat in the state). Klobuchar, though, won it 53-43.

P.S. You can check out our writeup for the 2018 races by congressional district here. You can also find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states. Additionally, you can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.