The Democratic pollster Beacon Research and the Republican firm Shaw & Company Research are out with a survey for Fox News that finds Democrat Mark Kelly leading GOP Sen. Martha McSally by a huge 50-37 margin. The poll also shows Joe Biden carrying Arizona 46-42, which is a big shift from Donald Trump’s 48-45 victory four years ago.
After losing the 2018 Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema 50-48, the appointed incumbent looks to be in far worse shape this cycle. Every single poll we’ve seen in 2020, with the exception of a single McSally internal from January, has shown her trailing Kelly.
And ominously for McSally, this new survey for Fox is the third poll released in the last two weeks that’s shown her losing by double digits. OH Predictive Insights recently found Kelly up 51-38 and Biden ahead 50-43, while a second Arizona Republican pollster, HighGround Public Affairs, gave Kelly a 51-41 advantage along with a 47-45 Biden edge.
Notably, all three of these recent surveys have shown Kelly running between 6 and 9 points ahead of Biden, which is another big problem for McSally. If that sort of gap persists into November, then Kelly would have a very good shot at winning even if Trump comes from behind to win Arizona, which has backed Republicans in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections (Bill Clinton narrowly carried it in 1996).
With McSally the underdog now, Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating here from Tossup to Lean Democratic. However, the senator does still have time to turn things around, especially if Trump’s standing improves over the next few months. The NRSC, which began airing its first TV spot this week, is also taking action early in an effort to dent Kelly’s lead. In addition, major outside groups on both sides have reserved millions in fall TV time, so neither side is acting as though McSally is done despite her current deficit.
McSally, though, needs something to change in order to finally win a Senate race. Kelly doesn't, and that makes him the favorite.
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