The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NY-17: A new poll from Data for Progress shows state Sen. David Carlucci, who was a founder of the turncoat group that voted to keep the GOP in control of the New York Senate, with a narrow lead in the June 23 Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Nita Lowey:
State Sen. David Carlucci: 15
Former Obama administration official Evelyn Farkas: 13
Former federal prosecutor Adam Schleifer: 13
Attorney Mondaire Jones: 12
Assemblyman David Buchwald: 6
Former NARAL board chair Allison Fine: 2
Army veteran Asha Castleberry-Hernandez: 1
Campaign Action
The poll also included Westchester County Board of Legislators Majority Leader Catherine Parker, who exited the race late last month; Parker took 0% of the vote in this survey.
While Carlucci has always won office as a Democrat, he was one of the founders of the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC), which infamously kept the GOP minority power in 2013. Democrats, despite a map the GOP had gerrymandered for their own advantage, had just won 33 of the 63 seats in the Senate. While conservative Democrat Simcha Felder outright caucused with the GOP, this state of affairs still should have been enough to give Team Blue a 32-31 majority in the chamber, which would have given them control for only the third time since World War II.
However, Carlucci and the rest of the IDC, which at this point included a total of five members, worked out a deal to keep the GOP minority in power. Among other things, that arrangement gave the IDC and GOP "joint and equal authority" over bills; IDC members also got committee chairmanships and vice chairmanships and the perks and increased salaries that came with them. The GOP, in turn, used its power to block progressive legislation in one of the nation's bluest states, including bills to expand gun safety, access to abortion, and voting rights.
In April of 2018 the IDC announced that they'd finally rejoin the mainstream Democratic caucus, but their many detractors understandably were not appeased after years of dealing with the renegade senators and their pledges to reunify. That September, six of the eight senators who were in the IDC when it officially disbanded went down in defeat in the Democratic primaries. Carlucci, though, kept his seat by turning back his primary challenger 54-46.
Democrats recaptured the majority in the fall in a rout, and this time, there were no renegades to keep them from running the chamber. Party leaders also welcomed Carlucci and fellow IDC alum Diane Savino back into the fold even though they didn't need their votes to pass long-delayed progressive legislation (Felder also became a full-fledged Democrat later in 2019).
Carlucci, though, remains someone we very much do not want in the House, but according to this poll, none of the other candidates has emerged as his main rival. Jones, however, did earn a high-profile endorsement on Friday, two days after this survey was complete, from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Buchwald, meanwhile, is going up with a new TV spot. The narrator declares that the assemblyman "wrote the law to expose Trump's tax returns; co-sponsored New York's Green New Deal; passed the nation's toughest gun laws, paid sick leave, and funding for Planned Parenthood."
Election Changes
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete compilation of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to election and voting procedures.
● Massachusetts: Massachusetts' Democratic-run state House has almost unanimously passed a bill that would allow excuse-free mail voting for the state's Sept. 1 primary (voting by mail without an excuse is already available for the November general election). In addition, the bill would count any ballots that are postmarked by Election Day so long as they are received by the Friday after the election; under current law, ballots must be received by Election Day.
The measure now goes to the state Senate. Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has not said whether he supports or opposes the bill, but the 155-1 vote in the House suggests the legislature could easily override a veto.
● Missouri: Republican Gov. Mike Parson has signed a bill that allows those who are 65 and over, live in a nursing home, or have certain medical conditions to request a mail-in ballot without an excuse for Missouri's Aug. 4 primary and the November general election. The measure also lets those under 65 obtain mail ballots, but they are required to have their ballots notarized.
● Ohio: Ohio's Republican-run state House has passed a bill on a party-line vote that would bar any "public official" from altering the "time, place, and manner" of any election, an effort to prevent a repeat of what happened with the state's March 17 primary, which Republican Gov. Mike DeWine abruptly canceled the day before. The legislation would also prohibit Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose from including postage-paid return envelopes with absentee ballots.
The bill did strip several provisions from an earlier version that had met with widespread criticism, including measures that would have eliminated three days of early voting right before Election Day and ended the state's practice of sending absentee ballot applications to all active voters.
Also removed were a set of emergency procedures that would allow for an all-mail election during the pendency of a public health crisis like the current pandemic. Under that proposal, the governor, with the approval of the legislature, could have closed all polling places and directed the secretary of state to send a postcard to voters explaining how they can request absentee ballots. It would not have required the state to send out absentee ballot applications or ballots.
● Tennessee: A state court has ruled that all Tennessee voters are entitled to request an absentee ballot "during the pendency of pandemic circumstances," in effect waiving the state's requirement that voters present an excuse in order to vote absentee.
The judge, who was ruling in two similar cases that had been consolidated, rejected the state's arguments that sending additional mail ballots would cost too much and would lead to voter fraud. Chancellor Ellen Hobbs Lyle called the state's cost calculations "oddly skewed" and added, "As to voter fraud, the State's own expert debunks and rejects that as a reason for not expanding access to voting by mail."
However, even though Lyle explicitly ordered election officials to cease enforcing the state's excuse requirement and to furnish absentee ballots to all voters, the secretary of state's office immediately sent instructions to local clerks instructing them not to comply. Lyle's order remains in effect and no stay has been issued, potentially opening up officials who do not heed it to charges of contempt of court.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Advertising Analytics reports that the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC has purchased $643,000 in air time for a Spanish-language ad campaign that will last from June 30 to Aug. 3.
● IA-Sen: Democrat Theresa Greenfield's allies at EMILY's List are out with a survey from Public Policy Polling that shows her leading GOP Sen. Joni Ernst 45-43; this sample also backs Donald Trump just 48-47. Last month, PPP showed Ernst ahead 43-42. This new poll was taken during the two days following Greenfield's decisive win in Tuesday's primary.
● ME-Sen: The NRSC recently went up with its first TV spot against state House Speaker Sara Gideon, who is the frontrunner in the July 14 Democratic primary to face GOP Sen. Susan Collins. The commercial accuses Gideon's leadership PAC of taking money from special interests despite her promise to "end corporate money in campaigns," and declares that the speaker "used the cash for personal gain." The rest of the commercial praises Collins as a bipartisan senator who "delivers for Maine."
While the NRSC claims Gideon used donations for "personal gain," that's not what happened. Back in October, the Maine Ethics Commission fined Gideon's now-defunct PAC all of $500 for reimbursing her that same amount for donations Gideon made to two state-level political committees in 2016.
As we wrote back then, reimbursements like these run afoul of federal and state laws that forbid anyone from making campaign contributions in another person's name. Gideon, however, didn't try to conceal her efforts; rather, they were discovered because her PAC publicly disclosed the reimbursements. For that reason, the commission declined to investigate further, concluding Gideon's disclosure meant it was unlikely she had knowingly sought to violate the law.
Both Collins and another Republican group, 1820 PAC, have also run ads accusing Gideon of taking "thousands from corporate PACs" after pledging not to accept corporate PAC money. As we've explained before, though, that attack is based on an extremely chutzpahdik understanding of campaign finance. Gideon has not, in fact, taken a dime from corporate PACs.
Instead, her detractors are hanging their hat on the fact that Gideon has accepted contributions from other groups that do accept corporate PAC money. If Gideon were to somehow forego donations from such organizations, you can bet that Collins' buddies would still chastise her for taking money from groups that take money from groups that take money from corporate PACs.
● MI-Sen: Republican John James is out with two commercials (here and here) focusing on the death of George Floyd. In one spot, James tells the audience, "The murder of George Floyd was an evil act of cowardice, and the looting and burning of our cities dishonors the cause of justice. Politicians will never solve these problems, only you and I can do that." James, who doesn't mention Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, calls for Americans to come together in both ads.
House
● CO-03: 2018 Democratic nominee Diane Mitsch Bush uses her first TV spot for the June 30 primary to highlight her humble origins and record in state and local office.
● GA-14: Wealthy businesswoman Marjorie Greene, who has repeatedly defended the notorious pro-Trump conspiracy theory QAnon on social media, tries to throw in as many far-right ravings as possible in a new commercial for Tuesday's GOP primary for this safely red seat.
Greene, who appears holding an assault rifle, tells the audience that "antifa terrorists have declared war on America." Greene then casually throws out some antisemitic talking points as she declares, "George Soros, Hollywood elites, and Joe Biden's staff are funding antifa." Greene then cocks her rifle as she begins her "message for antifa terrorists: Stay out of northwest Georgia. You won't burn our churches, loot our business, or destroy our homes."
Greene is one of nine Republicans running to succeed retiring Rep. Tom Graves on Tuesday in a contest that's almost certainly going to go to an August runoff. No one has released any polling here, but Greene's personal resources give her a chance to advance to a second round. Greene spent about $440,000 from April 1 to May 20, which is the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period; only neurosurgeon John Cowan, who dropped a little more than $500,000, deployed more money during this time.
However, while Greene's love of conspiracy theories may not hold her back in this ultra red seat, her weak ties to northeast Georgia could. Greene was living and running in the 6th Congressional District, a suburban Atlanta district that's very different from this rural constituency, until just after Graves retired in December. At the time, Greene was based in Alpharetta, which is located about 20 miles from the nearest community in the 14th District.
● NJ-03: Former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs faces a huge cash deficit against wealthy businessman David Richter, but one familiar name is coming to her aid ahead of the July 7 GOP primary. Bob Hugin, who threw down $36 million of his money for his unsuccessful 2018 Senate bid, is partially funding a super PAC called Jersey Real that just launched a $140,000 buy against Richter.
The commercial declares that Richter "teamed up with Joe Biden's brother and got a billion dollar insider deal from the Obama administration." Gibbs' campaign recently ran an ad that made the same argument against Richter.
● NY-24: Navy veteran Francis Conole has picked up an endorsement from Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in the June 23 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. John Katko.
Meanwhile, the Working Families Party has thrown its support behind 2018 nominee Dana Balter.
● PA-10: On Friday, the Associated Press called the June 2 Democratic primary for state Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. With 44,000 votes counted, DePasquale holds a 61-39 lead over attorney Tom Brier. This margin may shift some because Gov. Tom Wolf's recent executive order requires any mail ballots in Dauphin County, which is one of the three counties in this seat, that are received by June 9 to be counted as long as they were postmarked by Election Day.
DePasquale will take on GOP Rep. Scott Perry in a seat that includes Harrisburg and York. The district backed Trump 52-43, but Perry, who is a prominent member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, only won re-election last cycle 51-49 in an unexpectedly expensive contest.
And despite Trump's wide victory, Democrats have won here downballot. According to analyst J. Miles Coleman, DePasquale himself carried the seat during his 2016 re-election campaign. Bloomberg's Greg Giroux also reports that Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf won the district 54-44 in 2018, while Sen. Bob Casey prevailed 50-48 here. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
● SC-01: The campaign arm of the nihilist House Freedom Caucus has launched a commercial attacking state Rep. Nancy Mace, who has House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's backing, ahead of Tuesday's primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham.
The Freedom Caucus is pulling for Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing, who was just on the receiving end of a negative spot from Mace's allies at the anti-tax Club for Growth. House Freedom Action, which has spent at least $271,000 in this race so far, is running this ad for 1,200 gross ratings points (a term we explain here).
The commercial begins by taking Mace to task for having "run against President Trump's ally, our own Sen. Lindsey Graham." Mace did indeed unsuccessfully challenge Graham in the 2014 GOP primary, though Graham was hardly a Trump supporter at the time. The narrator continues by saying that Mace "left the Trump campaign, abandoning Trump before the showdown with Crooked Hillary." (That last bit is accompanied by the sound of a woman laughing.)
The ad then declares, "Mace isn't pro-life. She weakened the heartbeat bill and doesn't believe that life begins at conception." That bit is a reference to a bill from last year that would ban abortion in South Carolina after six weeks. Mace successfully introduced an amendment that would include exceptions for cases of rape or incest, and she used her speech to reveal to her colleagues that she'd been sexually assaulted as a teenager. Mace declared that while she was against abortion in most instances, "Rape and incest are not partisan issues."
The Freedom Caucus wasn't the only far-right GOP group that was furious at Mace, though. Her comments also antagonized fellow GOP state Rep. Josiah Magnuson, and two weeks after her speech, he left a card on her desk reading, "It is a twisted logic that would kill the unborn child for the misdeed of the parent." Legislative leaders from both parties condemned Magnuson, who eventually apologized to Mace.
The rest of the Freedom Caucus' ad touts Landing as "100% pro-life" and reminds the audience that she's backed by former Sen. Jim DeMint. This commercial came around the same time that the Club for Growth, which often sees eye-to-eye with the Freedom Caucus, launched an ad accusing Landing of hiding her support for higher town fees.
While the primary is on Tuesday, the GOP infighting could continue for another two weeks. South Carolina requires candidates to win a majority to avoid a June 23 runoff, and with two underfunded candidates on the ballot, it's very possible that neither Mace or Landing can clear the 50% mark.
● TX-07: Republican Wesley Hunt is out with a positive commercial where he talks about how his family went from "slavery to West Point in just five generations."
● UT-01: Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt, who is competing in the June 30 GOP primary, was censured by her city council on Thursday for supporting a local concert that would protest the state's social distancing restrictions.
The councilmembers, who successfully blocked the event from happening in Kaysville last month, said in their official letter to Witt, "Council members were misrepresented, city staff threatened, and many residents lost confidence in their elected leader … You brought an unnecessary distraction and division to our city by undermining the processes and manner of governing that we have sworn to uphold."
Unsurprisingly, Witt was not chastened in the least bit. Instead, she deliberately brought up the concert at a debate earlier that week, even when the questions were about seemingly unrelated issues, and said of her three opponents, "I've probably taken a stronger stance than anybody on reopening America." Witt's campaign barely had any money in early April, though she seems to be betting that this story will help her get some much-needed attention.
● VA-05: Marine veteran Roger Dean Huffstetler's newest spot for the June 23 Democratic primary features the candidate and his young daughter appearing to blast off into space on their cardboard rocketship. Huffstetler's wife, Emily Huffstetler, tells the audience, "RD wants to make sure our daughter, and everyone's children, can achieve whatever dreams they have. That they can be healthy, and happy, and safe in their schools." She concludes, "I see how being a father brings out the best in him, and I'm glad you get to see it too."
