Colorado Democrats took back the state Senate in 2018 after four years of GOP control and increased their lead in the state House. And as our new data, which was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby, shows, Team Red will have a very difficult time flipping either chamber this fall.
First, a look at the numbers. Democrat Jared Polis was elected governor last cycle by defeating Republican Walker Stapleton 53-43, which was an improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 48-43 victory against Donald Trump. Polis carried 41 House districts to Stapleton’s 24, as well as 22 Senate seats to Stapleton’s 13. Just one constituency in each chamber backed Polis after supporting Trump, while no districts went in the opposite direction.
Half of the Senate is up in 2020, and Republicans are going to have a very tough time netting the two seats they’d need to retake control. Team Red’s best target this fall is SD-19, where Democrat Rachel Zenzinger unseated a GOP incumbent 48-46 as Clinton was prevailing 48-43 here. However, this suburban Denver seat backed Polis by a stronger 54-41 two years later. And after that, Republicans don’t have any good pickup opportunities on the ballot this fall. Trump’s second-best Democratic-held seat is the open SD-28, another suburban seat that went from 53-38 Clinton to 59-37 Polis.
There are two GOP-held Clinton seats, though, which are also located in the Denver area and where Democrats can go on the offensive. State Sen. Kevin Priola’s SD-25 shifted from 47-45 Clinton to 50-45 Polis, while the open SD-27 moved from 49-42 Clinton to 53-44 Polis. There’s also SD-08, where Republican incumbent Robert Rankin is defending a western Colorado constituency that went from 48-44 Trump to 51-46 Polis.
We’ll turn to the state House, where Democrats hold a wide 41-24 lead. Team Blue has won a majority in the chamber ever since the current map went into effect in 2012, including during the 2014 GOP wave, so it’s very unlikely that Republicans will be able to win this time. One Republican represents a Clinton/Polis seat, while Democrats also hold a single Trump/Stapleton district. The one Trump/Polis seat is held by Democratic incumbent Daneya Esgar, whose HD-46 shifted from 46.1-45.8 Trump to 51-44 Polis.
We'll also take a quick look at the state's seven congressional districts. GOP Rep. Scott Tipton’s 3rd District moved from 52-40 Trump to 50-46 Stapleton, and it could be a potential Democratic target this fall. The 6th District, which is held by freshman Democratic Rep. Jason Crow, went from 50-41 Clinton to 54-42 Polis, and Republicans aren’t making a serious play for it this cycle.
P.S. You can find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states. Additionally, you can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.