This is the sixth in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. And things are looking better and better for Joe. With several sites updating their forecasts, his prospects only improve. Let’s just jump right in — first the electoral vote breakdowns, then the state-by-state polling for the swing states. All the numbers are from yesterday, July 10.
Princeton Election Consortium: Updated daily. Site header says Biden 403 (!), histogram says median of Biden 373; a large Biden shift from 2 weeks ago. I’ll continue to post both of these EV numbers for PEC. The “moneyball” states are AK, AR, and IA. The link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows the weakest D states as OH, GA, and TX (that is not a mistake; those are the weakest Democratic states); the weakest R states are IA, MO, and AK.
CNN: No update. Biden 232, Trump 205, 101 tossups. The lack of an update in many weeks is slightly puzzling; perhaps CNN doesn’t want to appear “biased” by showing just how good things are for Biden.
The Economist: Updated 7/10. Biden 346, Trump 192 (a shift of 5 towards Biden). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are AZ, GA, IA, NC and OH.
Electoral-vote.com: Updated daily. Biden 368, Trump 170, 0 tossups (no change). Weakest D states are GA, NC, NV, OH; weakest R states are AK (!), AR, IA, MO, TX, UT(!).
Plural Vote: Updated daily. Biden 344, Trump 194 (a shift of 9 towards Biden). Weakest D states are NC, NH; weakest R states are AZ, IA, OH, TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: No update; latest map is now found here. Biden 289, Trump 163, 86 tossups. Tossups are FL, GA, IA, NC, OH, and 1 Congressional district each in ME and NE.
Inside Elections: No update. Biden 269, Trump 204, 65 tossups (AZ, FL, NC, WI).
Sabato's Crystal Ball: No update. Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, WI and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Cook Political Report: Updated 7/8. Biden 279, Trump 188, 71 tossups (a shift of 31 towards Biden). Tossups are AZ, FL, GA and NC.
Real Clear Politics: No update. Biden 222, Trump 125, 191 tossups. As expected, RCP continues to be remarkably broad-minded about “toss-ups.”
With 10 sites tracked, 6 predict an outright Biden win, 4 of them with 300+ electoral votes, and two give Biden exactly or nearly 50% at 269 and 268 EVs. The 2 remaining models both give Biden a lead as well, although under the 270 EV threshold. Of 5 sites updating in the last 2 weeks, 4 show a shift towards Biden.
Now let’s look at individual states considered tossup. I’ll provide the current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP for each state, listing the states in order by the largest to smallest margins for Biden. I’m ready to start tracking states like Alaska or Utah just yet, but with some more polling and close margins in those states, who knows?
(1) NV: Spreads are Biden +8.7 (538) and Biden +4.0 (RCP). It’s about time to drop this one; solidly pro-Biden and a Clinton state in 2016. They’re not switching sides.
(2) WI: Spreads are Biden +8.1 (538) and Biden +6.5 (RCP).
(3) PA: Spreads are Biden +7.6 (538) and Biden +6.5 (RCP).
(4) FL: Spreads are Biden +6.3 (538) and Biden +5.0 (RCP).
(5) NC: Spreads are Biden +3.4 (538) and Biden +3.3 (RCP).
(6) AZ: Spreads are Biden +3.0 (538) and Biden +3.5 (RCP).
(7) OH: Spreads are Biden +2.6 (538) and a tie (RCP).
(8) GA: Spreads are Biden +1.7 (538) and Trump +4.3 (RCP).
(9) IA: Spreads are Trump +0.3 (538) and Trump +1.5 (RCP).
(10) TX: Spreads are Trump +1.3 (538) and Trump +2.5 (RCP).
As I noted last week, all Biden has to do is win MI (already off our list because Biden’s lead is so large), WI, and PA and hold the other Clinton states from 2016, and he’s the President. Not only is he ahead in all 3, he’s also competitive in OH and IA. In other states featuring Senate races that the Democrats need to gain control of that body (NC, AZ) I think the Biden campaign should invest a lot of effort as well. And FL should never be neglected. But there is no time for complacency — Biden’s margin (at least according to 538) has actually shrunk slightly in a number of these states.
If there are any additional sites that should be tracked, please let me know of them!
