In the latest UTT Poll Biden is beating Trump 48% to 43%. He is almost at 50% now, and his showing in this particular poll universe has gone from dead even on May 2nd to now a 5% lead. If Biden can win Texas not only is Trump doomed for the election, but Texas will have turned BLUE and will likely remain blue as demographic changes favoring Democrats in that state were already going to make the state blue before long anyway. That spells doom for the GOP because without California, New York, Texas and Florida they can’t win in a Presidential election, this year and future years.
From the Dallas Morning News:
Joe Biden builds lead over Donald Trump in reliably red Texas, as voters sour on handling of virus
Former Vice President Joe Biden has built a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, as unease over Trump’s handling of coronavirus mounts, a new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll has found.
If the general election were held today, Biden would carry Texas, with 46% of the vote to Trump’s 41%. 14% were undecided or named someone else. With Likely Voters it would be 48% to 43%. (ed.)
Biden’s lead, which comes after he and Trump were tied 43%-43% in The News and UT-Tyler’s April survey, is significant, if barely: The poll, conducted June 29 — July 7, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.24 percentage points.
UTT tested both likely and registered voters, and the 5% margin was the same. With likely voters, rather than just registered voters, Biden’s share of the vote increased to 48%, however, putting him very close to the 50% threshold.
Last month this poll showed Biden and Trump exactly tied, now Biden has surged ahead of Trump by 5% in the state of Texas.
The story behind Biden’s slight bulge is the softening of the Republican incumbent’s support among independents and “weak partisans,” said Kenneth Bryant Jr., a UT-Tyler political scientist who helped design the poll.
“While President Trump has and still enjoys near universal approval from Republicans, and overwhelming disfavor from Democrats, he has lost considerable ground among the folks in the middle, who may ultimately decide who wins Texas in November,” Bryant said.
Independents have soured on Trump, and that makes all the difference this year. Biden beats Trump with Independents by almost 20% — 44% to 25%.
The big trigger is Trump’s mishandling of the Coronavirus crisis:
Unease with handling of crisis
Mark Owens, a UT-Tyler political scientist who oversaw the telephone and online survey, said new questions added to the June 29-July 7 survey showed growing unease with state and federal leaders’ handling of the public health crisis.
By 70% to 17%, he noted, registered Texas voters agreed that the state should not have reopened restaurants and bars so quickly -- as Abbott did, respectively, on May 1 and May 22.
Only 22% agreed the coronavirus outbreak in Texas is under control, while 63% disagreed.
The drag on Trump and Abbott’s approval ratings was striking.
While in April Texans were evenly divided in their appraisals of the president’s overall job performance, in the new poll, 42% approve of the job he’s doing, while 50% disapprove. On COVID-19, just 38% of state residents are pleased with Trump’s performance, with a majority (52%) disapproving. In April, 43% approved and 44% disapproved.
By 70% to 17% Texas voters believe their state opened way too early. Abbott and Trump share the blame for the Covid-19 disaster in Texas. Trump approval for his handling of the Coronavirus in Texas is now 38% approval and 52% disapproval.
Even with Republicans his strong approval for his Coronavirus handling is under 50%. Disapproval of Trump on his handling of the Coronavirus with Independents is high, with 51% disapproving and only 36% approving, and STRONG disapproval with Indies is at 41%. Those are numbers on the biggest issue in people’s lives that would definitely lose Trump Texas.
Trust in Trump keeping communities safe from the Coronavirus has diminished:
Distrust of Trump’s ability to keep communities safe during the pandemic has increased, the poll found. In April, 45% of Texans had confidence in the president and 45% did not. Now, 42% trust him while 56% do not.
60% of 18 to 24 year olds say they have “no confidence” Trump will keep their community safe during the pandemic, and 70% of Blacks. By race, 55% of whites say they have a fair amount or a great deal of trust in Trump, compared with just 27% of Hispanics, 26% of Asian Americans and 14% of Blacks.
As Texas mirrors Florida, Arizona and Georgia on spiking Coronavirus cases with massive increases in new cases and deaths we are likely to see the same kind of thing now happening in those 3 states as well, with vast majorities of the state’s population upset that their states opened up way too early and distrust of Trump’s ability to keep people safe diminished greatly. We are likely going to see those changed dynamics reflected in future polls out of these 3 major battleground states.
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Unfortunately Cornyn does better than Trump in the state of Texas in this survey.
Cornyn leads either potential Democratic challenger by double digits right now. But that race isn’t defined as the Democrats have not had their primary yet to choose between West or Hagar. A lot can still happen in that particular race.
There is much more to read at the link. Abbott’s own numbers, due to his mishandling of the Coronavirus crisis are also coming down
.
Here is the PDF with all the crosstabs of this poll:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Methodology
The Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler Poll reflects a statewide random sample of 1,909 registered voters during the eight days between June 29-July 7. The mixed mode sample includes 129 registered voters who were surveyed by the Center for Opinion Research over the phone and 1780 registered voters that were randomly selected from a panel of registered voters that are contacted to take surveys by the Dynata. The online and phone surveys were conducted in English and Spanish.