Biden’s poll numbers in Florida continue to impress. Following a couple of eye opening polls from last week where Biden was seen in the lead by 9% (FoxNews poll) and 6% (Siena/NY Times) we now have more evidence that Florida is shaping up real good for us at this moment in time. Things can happen between now and November 3, but with just 3 ½ months left in the race the race is shaping up to be a major get for Biden and a huge headache for Trump.
1. A 10% lead — 53% to 43%. Gravis. July 13.
Florida Poll - Biden leads by 10%
This poll was in the field yesterday only, 7-13. Biden gets to 53% in this poll, Trump has 43%. There is only a 4% group “uncertain”, as of yet undecided.
Those 4 percent of “uncertain”, when asked if they HAD to choose, who would they vote for:
By 3 to 1 the undecided group, when asked to pick someone of the 2, picked Biden over Trump, 73% to 27%.
The current Coronavirus crisis in Florida, which at this point is the epicenter of the world for the virus, plays into this.
56% of Floridians believe the state re-opened too soon. Only 27% state that is was done “just right”, another 11% feel it wasn’t fast enough. So, strongly lopsided of the opinion that we re-opened too quickly, and the spiking case and death numbers are a direct result of that fact. Trump is paying the price for that.
Also, strong support for a statewide mandate to wear masks, something DeSantis has resisted on so far:
By 73% to 20% Floridians want to see making people wearing masks while in public mandatory on a statewide basis. Trump has been the poster child of the “no-mask” group, claiming that it looks bad, that it isn’t necessary, that people wearing masks are doing so because they don’t like it. Under pressure from his handlers he has recently worn a mask in a hospital setting, but he is still far away from doing the right thing when it comes to wearing a mask and showing the country, by example, how important it is to do so.
Methodology
It is Gravis, an outfit that leans to the right. They are often hired by Trump’s favorite cable network OANN for their polling. Still, for them to show Biden ahead by 10% in a survey that was conducted just yesterday shows that the Florida electorate is not happy with the latest Covid developments in Florida and is seeking a change at the top.
2. A 6% margin, 48% to 42%. Yougov/CBS News poll. July 7/10.
Pdf: Florida poll - Biden leads Trump by 6%
CBS News: Virus outbreak reshapes presidential race in Sun Belt — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, and the two are tied in Arizona and competitive in Texas, where Biden is down by just a point to Mr. Trump. Biden has made gains in part because most say their state's efforts to contain the virus are going badly — and the more concerned voters are about risks from the outbreak, the more likely they are to support Biden.
Up by 6% in Florida because people in Florida want to change direction at the top amid a bungled re-opening of the state.
Of note, Biden gets a larger share of current Trump voters or those currently voting for a third party candidate considering voting for him than Trump gets Biden voters or third party voters:
25% of voters currently with Trump or a third party candidate would still consider voting for Biden, while only 16% say the same about Trump.
Biden is also leading among Hispanic likely voters in all three states by at least double Trump's support, which is similar to or greater than Clinton's share of Hispanic support in 2016 in those states. At the same time, the polling found Biden is making inroads with seniors in Florida. In 2016, Mr. Trump attracted 57% of support among likely voters 65 or older, while Clinton had 40% of support. Now, the president is down to 50% support among that group while Biden has 42%.
Biden is doing well with Hispanics and seniors. Better than Hillary did in 2016.
In all three states, about six in ten voters say their state reopened too soon, and most say the president is doing a bad job handling the outbreak, notes CBS News associate producer Eleanor Watson. Voters with the most negative assessments of their state's handling of the virus are likely to prefer Biden. Democrats are in general more concerned about the virus, but concerned independents and moderates are also turning to Biden.
A large majority of voters feel that Florida re-opened too soon. And Trump gets the lions hare of the blame.
Florida is usually a 50-50 state. Obama won the state twice, by a very close margin. Trump won the state also by a very narrow margin, only 1.2%. This year Trump is likely going to lose Florida, and the margin will be wider than we have seen in this state for a very long time (George Bush’s win margin in Florida was also very, very, small against Kerry and Gore). Trump’s gross mishandling of the Coronavirus is mostly to blame for it, but there are other factors as well, such as a growing Democratic demographics and Trump in general being a real shithead who is disliked on a personal level, as a human.