The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Maine held its downballot primary on Tuesday, while Alabama and Texas hosted their primary runoffs. You can find the results at the links for each state. We’ll have a comprehensive rundown in our next Digest.
Leading Off
● NY-17: On Tuesday, the Associated Press called the June 23 Democratic primary for attorney Mondaire Jones in New York’s 17th Congressional District. With 50,000 votes counted, Jones has a hefty 45-17 lead over self-funder Adam Schleifer in the contest for this safely blue seat in Westchester and Rockland Counties north of New York City. Jones would be the first gay Black man to serve in Congress, though he may not be the only new member to share that distinction: Richie Torres, who identifies as Afro-Latino, has a wide lead for the primary for the nearby 15th District, though that contest has not yet been called.
Campaign Action
Jones launched a longshot primary campaign from the left in July of last year against longtime Rep. Nita Lowey, who decided to retire three months later. A number of other Democrats soon announced bids for this district, and several of them, especially Schleifer, had access to considerably more money than Jones. There was no obvious frontrunner during most of the race, and an early June poll from Data for Progress showed none of the candidates taking more than 15% of the vote.
Jones, though, picked up several endorsements from local and national progressive groups. Jones also ran ads during the final weeks of the campaign that showcased how, after growing up poor, he went on to “work for Barack Obama and make it to Harvard Law,” and he further emphasized how he was the one Democrat in the race who supported Medicare for All. This message, as well as his history making potential, may have helped Jones stand out in the packed field and emerge with a clear win.
ELECTION CHANGES
● Georgia: Officials in DeKalb County, Georgia are the latest to say they're considering a plan to send absentee ballot applications to all voters for the November general election. DeKalb, in the Atlanta suburbs, is the fourth-largest county in the state and is home to a Black majority. It voted for Hillary Clinton by a 76-19 margin in 2016, making it Georgia's second-bluest county.
● Louisiana: Last month, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards signed a bill that, among other things, moves Louisiana's candidate filing deadline from July 17 to July 24. Even before this shift, though, the Pelican State had the latest major party filing deadline of any of the 50 states.
● Massachusetts: Voting rights advocates and several voters have filed suit in Massachusetts' Supreme Judicial Court to press Democratic Secretary of State William Galvin to comply with a new law requiring that he send out absentee ballot applications to all voters for the state's Sept. 1 primary by July 15. Galvin says he will mail out ballots "as soon as reasonably possible" but has not yet done so because he has not received funding from the legislature.
● Nebraska: Nebraska's second- and third-largest counties have followed its biggest in saying they will send absentee ballot applications to all voters for the November general election. Along with Douglas County, which recently announced plans to mail out applications, Lancaster County (which is home to the state capital of Lincoln) and Sarpy (in the Omaha suburbs) make up more than half of the state's population. Collectively, they are home to 67% of the state's registered Democrats and 44% of its Republicans.
Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen, who sent applications to all voters ahead of the state's May 12 primary (which saw record turnout as a result), says he is undecided about whether to do so again. Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts says he opposes the idea.
● Rhode Island: Leaders in Rhode Island's Democratic-run state House say they support a bill to send absentee ballot applications to all voters for the state's Sept. 8 primary and the November general election, a move supported by Democratic Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea and voting rights advocates. However, state Senate President Dominick Ruggerio, also a Democrat, has come out against the measure, claiming that doing so would be "an extraordinary expense" and "inefficient."
Senate
● AZ-Sen: The local Republican pollster OH Predictive Insights' newest survey finds Democrat Mark Kelly leading appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally 52-43, which is a small shift to the right from his 51-38 edge in May.
● GA-Sen-B: Republican Rep. Doug Collins has publicized a new poll from Battleground Connect that shows him taking first place in the November all-party primary with 26% of the vote. Appointed GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler narrowly leads businessman Matt Lieberman, a Democrat, 17-15 for the second spot in the all-but-certain January runoff; two other Democrats, pastor Raphael Warnock and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, are behind with 10% and 5%, respectively.
The survey does show Collins losing support since early April, when Battleground Connect had him taking 36% as Warnock led Loeffler 16-13 for second. Since that poll was taken, though, both the Justice Department and the Senate Ethics Committee each announced that they were dropping their investigations into Loeffler's sales of millions in stock just before the markets tanked due to the coronavirus pandemic.
● MT-Sen, MT-Gov, MT-AL: Civiqs' newest poll for Daily Kos finds Republicans with small leads across the board in Montana.
In the Senate race, Republican incumbent Steve Daines edges out Democrat Steve Bullock 49-47. The gubernatorial portion shows Republican Greg Gianforte with a 47-44 advantage against Democrat Mike Cooney, while Republican Matt Rosendale outpaces Democrat Kathleen Williams 49-47 in the contest for the state's only U.S. House seat.
This is the first survey we've seen that's given Daines the lead in the "Battle of the Steves," though only a handful of other surveys have been released. A recent poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Bullock a 46-44 advantage; PPP also had Gianforte up 46-42, while the House race was deadlocked 44-44.
While Civiqs does find each member of the Democratic ticket slightly behind, the presidential numbers give Team Blue some potentially encouraging news. This sample shows Donald Trump leading just 49-45, which is a huge drop from his 56-35 win four years ago. That's a bit better for Democrats than the 51-42 Trump advantage that PPP recently found, but both surveys still indicate that Montana Democrats will need fewer crossover voters to prevail than they've had to get in past cycles.
● NH-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen uses her first TV spot to highlight her work in securing federal funding to combat the opioid crisis.
Gubernatorial
● NC-Gov: In his first TV commercial, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper tells the audience that "my priority is protecting lives" during the pandemic. He goes on to say, "These are challenging times, but you deserve honest answers and decisive action so we come out of this with a stronger economy that works for everyone."
House
● FL-03: Businessman Ryan Chamberlin's opening TV spot for the Aug. 18 GOP primary gives us an ugly and unfiltered look into the modern Republican mind. Chamberlin turns off CNN and asks his audience, "Aren't you tired of the arrogant self-righteousness? The media calls us idiots for supporting President Trump. Racists for saying all lives matter. Bigots for securing the border."
Chamberlin then declares, "And they think every one of us is carrying a gun." His wife naturally then hands him a weapon, and the candidate continues with his previous speech, "Can't imagine why."
● FL-15: Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin's new spot highlights the ongoing federal investigation against Rep. Ross Spano, who is his opponent in the Aug. 18 Republican primary, over loans made to his 2018 campaign.
The commercial begins with a narrator asking, "Why is Ross Spano under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice?" It then shows a clip of Spano in a February interview saying, "So in short, what had happened was, I took a personal loan from friends and then I loaned that money to the campaign. The narrator responds, "That's a federal crime. A crime that enriched Ross Spano's campaign by nearly $200,000."
The ad goes back to that interview and shows WTSP reporter Rob Finnerty asking Spano, "How did you not know, as somebody who's served in the House of Representatives here in Florida and now as a member of Congress." The congressman explains, "Trust me, if I had known, why in the world would I have put myself through this for the last year? Doesn't make any sense." Finnerty answers, "Congressman, maybe because you needed the money to win the election."
The narrator agrees with that interpretation and says, "Ross Spano engineered an illegal contribution to his campaign, to win an election. He calls it a 'mistake.' The law calls it a crime." The commercial ends by declaring that, whether Spano is "incompetent or corrupt," he shouldn't be in Congress.
● FL-19: State House Majority Leader Dane Eagle uses his opening TV commercial for the Aug. 18 Republican primary to talk about how "experience matters," which is not a line you hear often in modern GOP politics. However, Eagle's declaration that "China has crippled our economy and there are riots in our streets" is the type of xenophobic rhetoric that has been omnipresent in recent Republican spots across the country.
The ad begins with an old clip of Donald Trump name-dropping Eagle before the candidate himself appears. After giving his pessimistic view of America, Eagle then takes an implicit dig at two of the candidates who have been mainly self-funding their bids, businessman Casey Askar and urologist William Figlesthaler, saying, "We can't afford another chance on inexperienced, unproven candidates based on campaign ads."
Meanwhile, the anti-tax Club for Growth is running another spot for a fourth candidate, state Rep. Byron Donalds, as part of its $2 million buy. This ad also features old footage of Trump praising Donalds.
● KS-02: Prosecutors charged Republican Rep. Steve Watkins with three felonies and a misdemeanor on Tuesday evening stemming from the votes he cast in last year’s local elections while listing a UPS store as his home address on his voter registration form. We’ll have more on this story in the next Digest.
● NM-02: The NRCC has publicized a poll from the Tarrance Group that shows freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres-Small deadlocked 46-46 with Republican Yvette Herrell. This is the first survey we've seen all year of the contest for this 50-40 Trump seat. This is also one of the very few internal polls we've seen in months from Republicans for any general election anywhere.
Torres-Small is also airing her first TV spot this week where she tells the audience, "I've put politics aside and worked with Republicans, Democrats, and President Trump to pass the coronavirus relief plan." She concludes, "I'll work with anyone who wants to deliver for New Mexico."
● NY-19: The Associated Press has called the June 23 Republican primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado for Army veteran Kyle Van De Water. With 21,000 votes counted, Van De Water leads fashion designer Ola Hawatmeh 57-43.
This Hudson Valley seat swung from 52-46 Obama to 51-44 Trump, but this race is arguably the NRCC's biggest recruiting failure in the entire nation. Van De Water entered the race in late February, and he'd raised a grand total of $15,000 through early June. Hawatmeh wasn't a hit with donors either, though she'd at least demonstrated that she could do some self-funding. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this as Likely Democratic, though Van De Water may struggle to keep it on the big board.
● PA-08: In his inaugural TV spot, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright argues that Republican Jim Bognet would "take away health care for millions." Cartwright continues, "And pre-existing conditions like COVID-19? They won't be covered. I've been working to provide families and small businesses with relief, and to start making our medicine in America—not China."
● SC-01: Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham's new commercial stars George Patton Waters, a local Republican voter and the grandson of World War II Gen. George Patton. Waters begins by telling his audience that his ancestor "said moral courage was the most valuable trait. Well, Joe Cunningham has lots of it." After talking about the congressman's work for veterans, Waters declares, "I'm a Republican, I've never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I voted for Joe and I'll do it again."
● WA-10: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has launched a $140,000 TV buy to aid state Rep. Beth Doglio in the Aug. 4 top-two primary. The opening ad touts Doglio as the one candidate who "is bringing people together behind Medicare for All, guaranteeing quality healthcare for everyone—with no premiums, deductibles, or copays." The CPC is the first major outside group to get involved in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Denny Heck.
● WI-01: Afghanistan veteran Roger Polack has released a general election survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that shows him trailing freshman Republican Rep. Bryan Steil 49-39 in a contest that hasn't attracted much national attention.
While this poll shows Steil well ahead, Polack is arguing that he can make up ground. The sample shows Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied 47-47 in a southeastern Wisconsin seat that Trump took 53-42 four years ago. Polack's release also says that his deficit against Steil shrinks to 47-41 once voters learn about his background.
● House: The DCCC, which is the largest outside spender on House races among outside groups on the Democratic side, has announced that it has booked $2.8 million in TV time across four different media markets for its second wave of reservations. We've assembled this new data into a spreadsheet, which includes our best guesses as to which House seats the D-Trip is specifically targeting or defending.
Politico also notes that, of the committee's $1.14 million reservation in Houston, $248,000 is going to Spanish-language ads.
Other Races
● VA-LG, VA-AG: This week, two Democratic members of the Virginia House of Delegates announced their campaigns for statewide office in next year's elections. Del. Hala Ayala launched a bid to succeed Democratic Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, who is a likely candidate for governor, while Del. Jay Jones entered the contest for the seat held by Attorney General Mark Herring, a Democrat whose 2021 plans are uncertain.
Ayala, who would be the first woman elected lieutenant governor and the first Afro-Latina to win statewide, joins former state Democratic Party chair Paul Goldman in the contest. A spokesperson for Del. Elizabeth Guzman said that her boss is "exploring a run to become the first woman and first Hispanic person to serve as Virginia's lieutenant governor with a potential Labor Day launch." On the Republican side, former Del. Tim Hugo, who lost re-election in 2019, said he was "seriously considering" running.
This post is likely to be open next year. While Fairfax, who remains in office months after two women publicly accused him of sexual assault, has not officially announced he's seeking to succeed termed-out Gov. Ralph Northam, he said in December that he was "planning on running" for the top job.
Jones, meanwhile, entered the race for attorney general with an endorsement from Rep. Elaine Luria. Jones so far has the contest to himself, but Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor is also considering seeking the Democratic nod.
The biggest question mark, though, is what Herring, who is eligible to seek a third term, will do. Herring announced in late 2018 that he'd run to succeed Northam as governor, but in February of the following year, he apologized for having worn blackface in college. Herring was asked the next month about his gubernatorial plans and responded, "That is the last thing I am thinking about." We haven't heard anything new since then about his 2021 intentions.
Ad Roundup