Continuing my ongoing series about the 2020 election (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here), here I update you on the most recent status of the Senate races. We’ll look at the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts at this time, then consider the polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270towin (270).
Although most sites (and the polls) provide snapshots of the race right now, not true forecasts for November, things continue to look very promising. I get mailings from the DSCC because I’m giving them money. In their latest appeals, they’ve been touting an expanded map of contested seats targeted for November. So below, we’ll make sure to list the current polling for every race — 12 of them — on the DSCC mailer.
Princeton Election Consortium: 53 D, 47 R (updated daily; no change). MT, KS, and ME are listed as their “Moneyball” states.
CNN: no update (since May 2). CNN rates Democrats as clear favorites in AZ, CO, and ME, while forecasting the Rs to take back the AL seat. This would result in 49 seats, but Ds are given at least a 25-30% in IA, KS, and MT, so winning just one would put them at 50. CNN seriously needs to get on the ball and offer some updated analysis.
Electoral-vote.com: D 51, R 47, ties 2 (updated daily). This is another slight narrowing of the D lead, which was 52-47 with 1 tie a couple of weeks ago. Current ties are MT and SC. IA, ME, NH, and VA are rated ‘barely D’ while Perdue’s Georgia R seat is rated ‘barely R.’
Rachel Bitecofer: 50 D, 47 R, toss-up 3 (updated 5/21). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, KS, and MT. Weakest R seats are GA (both seats) and SC; no other D seats are in jeopardy.
Inside Elections: D 48, R 48, toss-up 4 (updated July 10). A shift of 2 seats away from the Rs. Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME, MT, NC.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 48, R 50, toss-ups 2 (updated July 9, but same breakdown as previous map). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are ME and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 46, R 50, toss-ups 4 (no update; this forecast is from June 18). Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are AZ, CO, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: D 46, R 47, toss-ups 7 (shift of 1 away from both D and R, to toss-up). Toss-ups are AZ, GA (perdue), IA, ME, MI, MT, NC.
So, of 8 models we’re tracking, 4 put the total seats for the Ds at 50 or more. The rest, however, have more than enough toss-ups for Ds to win control. However, at least for now the chances of the Democrats winning the Senate don’t look quite as good as Biden’s likelihood of beating Trump. We’ll look at the polling averages for each race next (or most recent polls, where averages are not provided). In addition to the DSCC races we’ll also toss in NH, which some sites suggest is a bit shaky for the Ds.
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +11.0 (270), D +13.0 (RCP). RCP continues to have a single poll up for this race, apparently reluctant to show a D up by so much.
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +6.8 (270), D+5.0 (RCP). The D average in RCP is dragged down by a + 4 recent poll for McSally. The other half dozen or so most recent polls have Kelly up 4 to 9 pts, so that poll is an outlier and the race is not that tight.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +4.8 (270), D +4.2 (RCP). Cunningham appears to be solidifying a clear lead.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +4.0 (270), 2.5 (RCP; also not updated for months). The recent poll showing Collins +8 also turns out to be an outlier.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +2.0 (270), D +1.0 (RCP).
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): D +1.4 (270), D +2.0 (RCP — a single poll).
KS (Bollier/D vs ?): No polling averages here. Bollier’s actual opponent is not yet known (hopefully it will be Kobach, who lost the KS governorship to a D), but she is within 1-2 points of all possible R candidates. So, KS is definitely looking like a toss-up.
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs Collins/R): R +2.0 (RCP; no average from 270). The problem here is that we don’t even know who the final candidates will be until Election Day, to be followed by a special election. If there’s a 50-49 split (depending on the Presidential outcome, for either party) after election day, this could become the most important race.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): R +3.0 (270), R +4.0 (RCP). This is the GA race currently on the DSCC map.
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): 270 has one poll showing McConnell up by 20 pts (which I don’t trust); RCP has no polls listed at all. We really have no idea what’s going on here, unless there’s a pile of polls somewhere that both sites are overlooking.
MS (Espy/D vs. Hyde-Smith/R): No averages posted. A February poll had Hyde-Smith up 10 (CP); a May poll has Hyde-Smith up by 27. I don’t know what the DSCC sees as promising here.
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): Polls early in the year (Jan-Feb) had Graham up by double digits, but the most recent from May (on 270 but not RCP) has the two tied. This will need more evidence before we can conclude it’s competitive, though.
TX (Hegar/D vs. Cornyn/R): R +9.0 (270), R +10.3 (RCP). This one also seems a far cry from a toss-up.
NH (Shaheen/D vs. ?): March polling showed Shaheen with large double-digit leads over her likely R opponents (270); RCP has no polls posted. If there’s a D weakness here, I don’t see it.
Despite slight variations from site to site, the universe of competitive seats seems fairly clear. What movement there has been over the past few weeks has almost all been in favor of the Democrats. In my view, we have three tiers of seats and a couple of wild cards.
The must-wins: CO, AZ, NC, ME. Fortunately, all of these are consistently polling Democratic. If the AL seat is lost (not a foregone conclusion), then these put the Ds at exactly 50 seats.
The true toss-ups: IA, MT, KS. A couple of months ago these weren’t even on the radar — so that shows how much the political landscape has shifted in favor of the Ds. Winning just one of these would result in a clear 51-seat majority — and all should be winnable with well-financed campaigns and GOTV operations.
The wild cards: GA-special, SC. We need more evidence that Harrison is competitive with Graham. And the GA-special picture may not even be clear until election day and we actually know who will be in the run-off.
The stretches: AL, GA-Perdue, KY, MS, TX. GA-Perdue should be the most winnable of these. All of them need more data favorable to Ds before we can conclude how competitive they are (or could be). And given Tuberville’s problems in AL (he’s a crook), maybe we shouldn’t write Jones off yet.
Discuss! Are there other Senate seats that should be on the radar? Should any of these be in another category? What do you think the final balance will likely be?
