Cook Political Report changed its Senate rating Thursday, now favoring Democrats to take back the upper chamber this November. "At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one to three seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority," wrote Cook's Jessica Taylor.
That net gain calculation includes the probability that Democratic Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama will lose his reelection bid. But perhaps the most telling stat of the entire article was the amount of money Senate Republicans and their allies are spending on defense.
Let’s make Senate Republicans short-timers. Give $2 right now to kick Mitch McConnell and his caucus of Trump enablers to the curb.
Republican Party committees and other GOP-aligned groups are now devoting 96.6% of their spending on competitive Senate races to defend the seats of vulnerable GOP senators. The polar opposite is true for Senate Democrats, whose committees and allies are now directing fully 97.4% of their war chest at ousting Republicans.
Cook's specific ratings changes for July all fell in Democrats' favor:
- Arizona: GOP Sen. Martha McSally, Toss Up —> Lean D
- Iowa: GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, Lean R —> Toss Up
- Georgia: GOP Sen. David Perdue, Lean R —> Toss Up
- Minnesota: Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, Likely D —> Solid D
- New Mexico: OPEN, Likely D —> Solid D
Senate Republicans' electoral nightmare has spread far beyond Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina to include Iowa, Georgia, and Montana—not mention once unthinkable pickups in Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and South Carolina.
The only two places where Republicans are spending to flip a seat are Jones' seat in Alabama and Democratic Sen. Gary Peters' seat in Michigan. But Michigan is trending strongly against Trump and, if that negative trend continues, GOP chances for a pickup in the state collapse.
Even GOP pollsters are gloomy. "Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” one GOP pollster said. “It’s grim."
Or delightful, depending on where you sit. Happy Friday.