A group of new polls coming out has good news for Joe Biden and poses serious challenges for Donald Trump in his bid for re-election.
Biden is ahead in Arizona by 49% to 45% among registered voters, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, a survey and market research firm. Another Arizona poll released Sunday, from NBC News/Marist, put Biden up by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
Kelly, a NASA astronaut and husband of former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, had a 12-point lead over McSally, 53% to 41%, after having a 3-point edge in March, NBC said.
Trump carried Michigan in 2016 by a narrow 10,704-vote margin. The new CNN poll put Biden on top there by 52% to 40%. Another poll released Sunday, from CBS/YouGov, showed Biden leading by 6 points.
In Florida, Biden is ahead 51% to 46%, according to the CNN survey. Like Arizona, Florida is dealing with a rapid rise in the level of coronavirus infections.
The RealClearPolitics summary of major polls, including those released Sunday, shows Biden up by 4 points in Arizona, 8.4 points in Michigan, and 7.8 points in Florida.
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.Biden is up 7 in North Carolina.
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Among registered voters, Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, got the support of 51 percent, compared with 44 percent who backed Trump. In March, Biden had a 4-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, 49 percent to 45 percent.
Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham leads GOP Sen. Thom Tillis by 9 points, with the backing of 50 percent of voters, compared to Tillis' 41 percent.
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.The Cook Report foresees the US Senate falling into the hands of the Democratic Party after the elections in November.
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With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority.
That leaves the Senate as Republicans' firewall—the final barrier to unified control for Democrats in 2021. While GOP incumbents are trying to run races independent of the president, if Trump’s polling numbers remain this dismal come November, that’s an unenviable and likely unsuccessful strategy, according to several top party strategists. As of now, Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority.
“Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.”
“If you’re an incumbent in a bad environment sitting at 44 percent, you should be pretty damn scared,” another alarmed Republican strategist said. “The expanding map has made it really hard, and there’s just a lot of Democratic momentum right now."
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.The electoral college is looking even stronger. These are some remarkable numbers. Leading North Carolina by 7 with Biden at 51 ! That is very encouraging. A 5 point lead in Arizona ? Definitely encouraging ! A 12 point lead in a poll of Michigan is again very encouraging. An average lead of almost eight points in Florida ? Average ! And these numbers make sense because they are close to where we were in poll averages, just moving a little more in our favor. I am more than a little encouraged to put it mildly ! Arizona and North Carolina should have been stretches in a normal election and leads from 5 to 7 points have got to put Trump’s team in mortal danger . Then, the Cook report sees what looks likely to me, that we are likely to win back control of the US Senate and build our majority in the US House of Representatives. None of us will be complacent. We will continue to push to move these numbers to an even better place although these numbers are fantastic. Nobody will let up until the election because we know that there are still 100 less than 100 days until the election. We mean to see Trump out of office and in jail and Biden in the White House and our party in control of both houses of Congress. We will keep working until the election has concluded.
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Monday, Jul 27, 2020 · 5:00:53 PM +00:00 · Dem
When I see Timmy21, I think of the Big Fundamental ! The greatest power forward to play the game. I live now in San Marcos, but San Marcos is very close to San Antonio and I did live in San Antonio.
Here is a definition of likely :
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1.
such as well might happen or be true; probable.
"it was likely that he would make a televised statement"
distinctly possible , to be expected ,odds-on, on, possible, credible, plausible, believable, imaginable, expected, anticipated, natural, prospective, predictable, predicted, foreseeable
Opposite: unlikely, impossible, improbable
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.Likely — more likely than not. Probable. Having odds of better than fifty percent.
The commenter can’t deal with the data and is apparently unfamiliar with the word likely.
Nobody wrote that it is in the bag, but if one is asking on a purely theoretical basis, is Joe Biden overwhelmingly likely to win the presidential election, then the answer to the question is yes. Nobody wrote to stop doing everything possible to bring that to pass. In fact, I wrote the exact opposite. Nobody will be complacent until after the election. But these are two different things: one is the question, “Is Biden overwhelmingly likely to win the election ?” and the other is, “Should people stop doing everything they can to help Biden win the presidential election and Democratic candidates win their elections down ballot ? “ The answer to the first question is obviously yes. But just because the fact is that Joe Biden is overwhelmingly likely to win the presidential election doesn’t mean that we, his supporters, are going to stop doing everything we can to help make that come to pass. The answer to the second question is of course no. Being aware of the odds of victory doesn’t mean that one isn’t going to use the means to achieve that victory. There are means to an end. If one doesn’t choose an appropriate means, then one is unlikely to get the end that one desires. The end is Biden winning and the Democratic Party winning their elections down ballot. The means are doing everything we can to make that happen : register voters, talk to voters, promote candidates on social media, write post cards , phone bank, and donate among others. Democrats and many independents and even a sizable number of republicans are anxious to defeat Trump and his enablers at the ballot box and we won’t stop until that is a reality.
So, yes Joe Biden is overwhelmingly likely, as a matter of fact, to win the presidential election. But no, we aren’t going to stop working to make that happen.
The basis for the overwhelmingly likely conclusion is a 7 point or better lead for nearly two months in the average of polls with Biden at 49.8% or better for nearly two months in the average of polls against an incumbent at 41.8% who has a double digit unemployment rate due and 150,000 Americans dead due to bungling the response to the pandemic and a 7 point or better lead for nearly two months in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Add to those polls, the fact that Biden has a lead of four points in the average of polls in Arizona and is up in North Carolina in the average of polls and a new A plus rated poll just came out showing him with a seven point lead in North Carolina. Then, we also have Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa are all toss up states. Trump only has an average of a two point lead in Alaska over the last two polls and Alaska has not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Put all of that together and the lack of opportunities for game changers ( in person convention — probably not and it barely produced any bounce for him last time campaign rallies — few and those that do take place will spread the virus, the economy won’t improve until the public health crisis is under control and the death toll will continue to mount, no vaccine until next year at the earliest, … ) and the fact that we are talking about AVERAGES OF POLLS FOR OVER SEVEN WEEKS and we can conclude that it is overwhelmingly likely that Biden will defeat Trump and we will do everything we can to make that happen and we won’t stop until the election is over.