As the House GOP dons their rosy shades and prattles on publicly about a potential 17-seat pick up, they are privately stressing over a worst-case scenario: that as many as 20 GOP seats could be on the chopping block, according to Politico.
Frankly, that would be catastrophic given that House Republicans are already at a 34-seat deficit, 232-198. A 20-seat Democratic pickup would put the House GOP back in 2009 territory, when Barack Obama started his presidency with a House Democratic majority of 257-178.
But that could actually prove to be far worse for House Republicans if the Trump-inspired realignment in the suburbs gets some long-term traction. Digging out from under that deficit might be far more difficult for the GOP minority than it was in the 2010 midterms, for instance.
Politico reports that internal Democratic polls suggest their candidates are competitive in historically Republican-leaning districts in Indiana, Texas, Michigan, Ohio, and Montana—all districts that easily went Trump in 2016.
Worse yet, House Republicans are facing a cash crunch as Democrats crush their fundraising while the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee withhold help. Last quarter, more than 30 House GOP incumbents trailed their Democratic challengers in fundraising. It's pretty hard to go on offense when you're suddenly playing defense in roughly as many seats or more.
The dicey environment and scarce resources have left vulnerable GOP incumbents competing for help with House leadership. “The DCCC's candidates are printing money, and the president's falling poll numbers are devastating to Republicans across the map," a GOP member in a competitive district told Politico. "That's why McCarthy and the NRCC need to hold the line and focus on saving incumbents first."
Among the more surprising data: Democrat Kathleen Williams tied Republican Matt Rosendale in a race for Montana's open at-large seat, where Trump won by 20 points; Democrat Christina Hale was up 6 points in an open Indianapolis district that Trump carried by 12 in 2016; and Democrat Wendy Davis trailed Roy by just 1 point in a central Texas district Trump carried by 10 points.
Additionally, three Texas seats that weren't even on the Democrats’ radar have recently emerged as potential pickups: GOP Reps. Van Taylor, Ron Wright, and Roger Williams. That's on top of the state’s three open seats where Democrats lodged near misses in 2018.
The news hasn't been all bad for Republicans, with some recent polls showing a half dozen of their candidates in striking distance of picking off Democratic incumbents. But much of House Republicans' fate, particularly in the suburban districts that proved fertile ground for Democrats in 2018, will come down to whether Trump continues to tank or engineers some sort of turnaround.
Unfortunately for the GOP, Trump touting the medical advice of science deniers like the “demon sperm” doc isn't likely to do the trick.