by Hal Brown, MSW
It would be gratifying if the overall result of the most recent Gallup poll showed Trump’s approval rating dropping but what I find reassuring is that his attempts to turn things around has failed.
It’s also about the numeral three. It just looks so pathetic. Even though the margin of error is 4% in this poll and we don’t know whether the Trump approval number is really in the very low forties or middle thirties the number three jumps out.
Here’s the Gallop breakdown in detail. It is particularly newsworthy which organization conducted this poll because the name Gallop, which was founded in 1935, is by far the most well known polling company. The poll released yesterday was not conducted along with any news organization. If it was done with one of his demonized fake news entities he could dismiss the results outright, and even if it was done along with Fox News he could rant about them too. See “Furious Trump tells followers to turn off Fox News after poll shows him losing in six swing states: Trump insists that he is “leading in the REAL polls” as he accuses the network of pushing “phony suppression polls” for example.
What, you might ask, are the REAL polls? Someone should ask him if he thinks Gallup polls are real.
These are the parts from Gallup that struck me as the most significant:
Trump Approval Slips Below Majority Level Among White Americans, Men
Before the recent downturn in public support, the president had averaged 47% job approval this year. The eight-point average decline from early 2020 to late May and June is apparent among all key subgroups.
Trump now has approval ratings below the majority level among groups that are typically more favorable to him, including non-Hispanic white Americans, men, older Americans, Southerners and those without a college degree.
He does retain majority support among white Americans without a college degree, at 57%, albeit down from 66% among the group in January to early May.
Bottom Line
The drop in Trump's job approval rating puts him in the company of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter -- the last two one-term presidents, who also had sub-40% approval ratings in June of their reelection years. Earlier this year, Trump's approval ratings were closer to those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama at a similar point in their presidencies, the last two presidents who won a second term.
Even with the result in the high thirties when the number is headlined as 38% I think what most people, Trump included, is the number three. This is what jumps off the page or computer screen, or since Trump doesn’t read anything published on paper or in the online media, Of course he does see what is on the television screen on Fox News. When numbers like these (below) hit the thirties it will trigger a narcissistic rage attack (see 8 Signs of Narcissistic Rage).
In keeping with my galloping horse imagery, what bolts off the page for me is the number three.
Analysis of the actual poll numbers and comparing them to previous presidential elections notwithstanding, it is the look of having a poll number remain in the thirties that will provoke anxiety among those who have hitched their wagon to the Trump horse. It isn’t quite about to careen off the road and crash the wagon. Every percentage point drop brings it closer to that tipping point.
The Poll
I think the tipping point is 35%. I am not sure whether 3% of his hardcore supporters could change their minds, but if they do I think 35% tips the wagon and 33% crashes it off the cliff.
When I think there are two elements to how Trump polls. One is certainly his behavior becoming not changing (it won’t) and even becoming more and more a blatantly racist pandering aimed at his hardcore base. The other is that circumstances which are out of his control will occur. These are things like the drastic increase in Covid cases which he can’t gaslight and lie his way out of.
I think it is highly likely Covid-19 will be his ultimate undoing as more and more of his supporters either get it or know someone who does. Therefore I vote 35% on the poll.
What do you think?