The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● GA-Sen-A: Fox News reports that two major Republican outside groups, One Nation and the Senate Leadership Fund, are making huge TV reservations to help Georgia Sen. David Perdue fend off Democrat Jon Ossoff.
One Nation has booked $8.65 million in ads that will start Aug. 4, while the SLF reportedly will reserve $13.5 million for commercials that will begin in mid-September. The NRSC also will launch a $2.1 million TV campaign next week, though it's not clear yet if those ads will go towards helping Perdue or appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who faces several candidates from both parties in the November special all-party primary.
Campaign Action
Until this month, we hadn't seen any major outside spending from either party in the Perdue-Ossoff race. However, while Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Georgia since 2000, polls have consistently found a close contest here, and the Team Red's reservations indicate they're worried about Perdue.
Perdue himself is also going up with his first two TV spots, and he uses one to attack Ossoff. The senator declares, "Contrary to what the radical left is saying, America has been and still is the greatest country in the world." Perdue goes on to say, "I will not let Jon Ossoff destroy the American dream for our children and our grandchildren," though he doesn't actually bother to say why the audience should think the Democratic nominee is dangerous.
Perdue's other ad positions the incumbent as a supporter of "police reform" who believes that "defunding the police" is not the answer.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete summary of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to elections and voting procedures as a result of the coronavirus.
● Maryland: Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has ordered that all Maryland voters be sent an absentee ballot application for the November general election while also ordering that all in-person polling places be opened. Maryland conducted its June 2 primary largely by mail and sent ballots, rather than applications, to all voters. Voting rights advocates sharply criticized Hogan's decision but have not yet said whether they plan to challenge it in court.
2Q Fundraising
● IA-Sen: Theresa Greenfield (D): $6 million raised, $5.6 million cash-on-hand
● KS-Sen: Barbara Bollier (D): $3.7 million raised, $4 million cash-on-hand.
● KY-Sen: Amy McGrath (D): $17.4 million raised
● WV-Gov: Jim Justice (R-inc): $71,000 raised, additional $236,000 self-funded, $40,000 cash-on-hand; Ben Salango (D): $265,000 raised, $251,000 cash-on-hand
● CA-25: Christy Smith (D): $1.5 million raised, $400,000 cash-on-hand
● IA-02: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R): $350,000 raised
● MO-02: Jill Schupp (D): $800,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand
● NC-08: Pat Timmons-Goodson (D): $820,000 raised, $600,000 cash-on-hand
● NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $3.8 million cash-on-hand
● PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): $455,000 raised, $1.8 million cash-on-hand; Christina Finello (D): $310,000 raised
● PA-07: Susan Wild (D-inc): $875,000 raised, $2 million cash-on-hand
● TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D): $810,000 raised, $3 million cash-on-hand
Senate
● KS-Sen: Republican Rep. Roger Marshall is airing another TV spot ahead of the Aug. 4 primary attacking wealthy businessman Bob Hamilton.
As scary music plays in the background, the narrator accuses Hamilton of employing an undocumented worker at his plumbing company. She says, "Two years Bob Hamilton sent an illegal alien into people's homes, breaking our trust, putting lives in danger just to make a buck." Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin aptly describes this commercial as "Willie Horton-style but if Willie Horton were just a plumber doing his job who never hurt anyone."
The lead up to next month's Republican primary has been an ugly affair, with Hamilton and former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach each going after Marshall, Marshall attacking both Hamilton and Kobach, and a new outside group called Plains PAC spending heavily against Kobach. Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier has no serious intra-party opposition, though, and she's spent the last two months running positive commercials promoting herself as a moderate. Bollier's latest spot talks about her medical career and time in the legislature as a "sensible centrist."
● KY-Sen: Politico reports that the conservative group One Nation has booked $4.3 million for a four-week ad campaign that will start Aug. 4. Back in March, Senate Leadership Fund also reserved $10.8 million in TV time to aid Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
● MA-Sen: United For Massachusetts, a super PAC founded by the Environment America Action Fund and the Sunrise Movement, has announced that it will spend $900,000 on TV and digital ads this month to boost Sen. Ed Markey in the September Democratic primary.
The opening commercial extols Markey for working for health care for all prior to the coronavirus pandemic and for fighting drug companies and the fossil fuel industry before the opioid crisis and global warming became high-profile issues. The narrator concludes, "We expect our leaders to do the right thing in times of crisis. The real leaders take action before."
● TN-Sen: We have dueling internal polls of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for this open Senate seat. Former Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty, who is Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, has released a survey from the Tarrance Group that gives him a 46-29 lead over orthopedic surgeon Manny Sethi, while wealthy perennial candidate George Flynn takes just 5%. Sethi, though, is out with a Victory Phones poll that shows him trailing Hagerty just 33-31, while Flinn is at 6%. We haven't seen any other surveys of this contest.
● TX-Sen: EMILY's List tells the Texas Tribune that it will spend $850,000 on a TV buy in the Houston media market supporting Air Force veteran MJ Hegar in next week's Democratic primary runoff. There has been no public polling in months of the contest between Hegar and state Sen. Royce West, whom she outpaced 22-15 in March, but Hegar's side has a massive advertising edge in the lead-up to Election Day. The Tribune reports that Hegar, the DSCC, and EMILY are spending at least $2 million, while West has only booked $24,000 for a cable buy in Houston.
West, though, is hoping that his ad contrasting his record against Hegar's will break through. The narrator begins by extolling him for having "passed policing reform and expanded access to healthcare. Raised teacher pay, and increased school funding." The spot continues by declaring that Hegar "admitted to voting Republican when Trump ran for president, even when Republicans were trying to repeal Obamacare." Hegar cast a ballot in the 2016 Republican primary, which she says was a protest vote against Donald Trump.
Gubernatorial
● MT-Gov: The DGA-backed group Good Jobs Montana is up with a spot going after Republican Greg Gianforte on healthcare. The narrator declares that he's voted to cutting Medicare and gives billions to his donors in the healthcare industry.
House
● AL-01: The anti-tax Club For Growth's new spot for next week's Republican primary runoff argues that, while former state Sen. Bill Hightower supported Donald Trump in 2016, Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl "contributed campaign cash against Trump." What the commercial doesn't bother to mention is that the Trump opponent that Carl donated $500 to in late 2015 was Ben Carson, who is now a member of Trump's cabinet; the Club itself supported Ted Cruz over Trump during that cycle's GOP primary.
The contest to succeed Rep. Bradley Byrne, who gave up this safely red Gulf Coast seat to unsuccessfully run for the Senate, may hinge on which candidate can most effectively depict the other as anti-Trump. Carl himself recently went up with a commercial that went after Hightower for merely liking a 2016 tweet from a conservative columnist who expressed his "disgust" with both Hillary Clinton and Trump. (The lesson is, Never Tweet.)
However, Hightower's side has far more money to get their message out: While Hightower and Carl spent a comparable amount of money April 1 to June 24, which is the time the FEC defines as the pre-primary period, the Club is the only major outside group that has been getting involved here.
However, Carl does have some prominent local supporters at home. While Carl only narrowly led Hightower 39-37 during the first round of voting back in March, he picked up an endorsement shortly afterwards from state Rep. Chris Pringle, who finished third with 19%. Byrne, who was also on the receiving end of Club ads during his failed Senate run, also backed Carl last month.
● AL-02: The Club for Growth is running a commercial hitting businessman Jeff Coleman days ahead of the Tuesday Republican primary runoff to succeed retiring Rep. Martha Roby in this safely red seat. The narrator declares that, while Coleman says he's a Trump supporter, he didn't send "a dime to Trump against Clinton."
The ad continues by accusing Coleman of supporting "a campaign group that, last election, bankrolled six Democrats who voted to impeach Trump." The narrator concludes that Coleman is "wrong about President Trump. Bigley." Unlike Trump, who insists he's said "big league," the on-screen text accompanying that line says "bigley."
The Club is supporting former state Rep. Barry Moore, whom Coleman outpaced 38-20 in the first round of voting back in March. Coleman, who has self-funded part of his campaign, has enjoyed a huge financial advantage throughout the contest, and he outspent Moore about $260,000 to $125,000 during the pre-primary period. However, the Club has spent around $650,000 here promoting Moore and attacking Coleman, while the nihilist Freedom Caucus has thrown down $150,000 to get the same message across.
● GA-14: Republican Rep. Rick Allen has endorsed neurosurgeon John Cowan over QAnon conspiracy theorist Marjorie Greene in the Aug. 11 primary runoff.
● IA-01: Iowa Starting Line reports that PAC of the United Association's Union Plumbers & Pipefitters has launched a six-figure buy against Republican Ashley Hinson. The spot hits Hinson for voting to cut unemployment benefits for people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic.
● KS-02: State Treasurer Jake LaTurner recently launched a TV spot attacking Rep. Steve Watkins ahead of their Aug. 4 Republican primary, and Watkins has responded with his own anti-LaTurner commercial. The narrator begins by saying of LaTurner, "In one year, he's run for state treasurer, U.S. Senate, and now he's running for Congress." The ad then charges LaTurner with supporting "a bill that allows government bureaucrats to seize land," and backing "the largest tax increase in Kansas history."
● KS-03: A group called Heartland USA recently began spending $166,000 on TV ads ahead of the Aug. 4 Republican primary promoting former state party chair Amanda Adkins and attacking former nonprofit head Sara Hart Weir, and the Kansas City Star reports that the PAC is funded by Adkins' father. Reporter Bryan Lowry writes that Alan Landes contributed $113,000 to the PAC through the end of March, which made him its sole donor at the time.
The commercial goes after Weir for working for then-Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore's 2004 re-election bid, with the narrator describing him as "the guy who voted for Obamacare and Nancy Pelosi." The ad then shows an image of Weir going from wearing a hat with a Republican elephant to a blue baseball hat with a "D" on it as the narrator argues, "Playing dress-up is fun for kids, not for Congress." The spot goes on to say that when it comes to Republicans, Adkins is "the real thing." Whoever wins the GOP nod next month with take on freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.
● ME-02: FairVote, a nonpartisan electoral reform group that supports ranked-choice voting, has commissioned a poll from SurveyUSA of the GOP's July 14 instant-runoff primary to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. The poll finds that none of the three Republican candidates are anywhere close to a majority of the vote, which means that voters' second-choice preference will be key in determining whom the party nominates in this competitive northern Maine seat.
Former state Rep. Dale Crafts, who has ex-Gov. Paul LePage's support, takes 37%, while real estate agent Adrienne Bennett and 2018 Senate nominee Eric Brakey are further back with 25% and 19%, respectively. The poll also asks respondents who their next choice is, and it finds Crafts in a good position for a second round of tabulations: Brakey voters favor Crafts over Bennett 40-35, while Bennett supporters list Crafts as their second choice by a 46-28 margin. (Crafts' people go for Bennett over Brakey 45-25.)
The only other poll we've seen of this contest was a mid-June survey from the conservative firm We Ask America, and it showed quite a different state of play than what SurveyUSA finds now. WAA had Bennett leading Brakey 28-22, while Crafts was in third with 20%; that poll did not ask about voters' second-choice preference.
● TX-13: The Club for Growth is airing another commercial against lobbyist Josh Winegarner that accuses him of attacking the military service of former White House chief physician Ronny Jackson, who is his opponent in next week's Republican primary runoff. The narrator says that Winegarner, whom he describes as a "well-paid Washington lobbyist," just doesn't understand service before self.
● TX-22: Self-funder Kathaleen Wall is out with another commercial that accuses Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, who is her opponent in next week's Republican primary runoff, of doing a poor job combating sex trafficking. Wall has been running ads for weeks making this argument against Nehls, and he acknowledged last week that he didn't have the money he needed to air a TV spot in response.
Nehls led Wall 40-19 during the first round of voting in March, but Wall's huge offensive could make it tough for him to prevail in round two. Wall outspent the sheriff by a lopsided $2 million to $94,000 margin during the pre-primary period, and while Nehls had a mere $33,000 to spend on June 24, Wall has continued to pour money into her campaign since then. Whoever prevails on Tuesday will take on Sri Preston Kulkarni, who won the Democratic nomination months ago, in a seat that's been moving to the left during the Trump era.
● TX-24: Rep. Joaquin Castro has endorsed local school board member Candace Valenzuela in next week's Democratic primary runoff.
Mayoral
● Honolulu, HI Mayor: Former Mayor Mufi Hannemann earned an endorsement this week from the Hawaii Fire Fighters Association for the Aug. 8 nonpartisan primary.
● Miami-Dade County, FL Mayor: On Tuesday, Hialeah Mayor Carlos Hernández threw his support behind Alex Penelas, a Democrat who is running to reclaim his old post as Miami-Dade County mayor in the Aug. 18 nonpartisan primary. Hialeah makes up a little under 10% of the entire county and has long been a downballot GOP stronghold thanks to its heavy concentration of Cuban-American voters.
Election Result Recaps
● NJ-02: Mental health advocate Amy Kennedy decisively won the Democratic nomination to take on party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew. With 31,000 votes counted as of early Wednesday evening, Kennedy led political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison, who had the support of the long dominant South Jersey party establishment, 59-25. Van Drew also won his first-ever Republican primary by easily beating businessman Robert Patterson; with 27,000 votes in, the incumbent leads 81-19.
Just after it was clear that Kennedy had won the Democratic nod, the DCCC released an in-house poll showing Van Drew leading her 47-44. The sample also favored Donald Trump 46-45 in a seat he won 51-46 four years ago. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
● NJ-03: With 31,000 votes counted, wealthy businessman David Richter leads former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs 67-33 in the Republican primary for this competitive South Jersey seat. While the Associated Press has not called the race as of Wednesday evening, Gibbs has conceded.
Richter will take on freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim in a district that backed Donald Trump 51-45. This district may also be the most expensive in the nation to advertise in: About 57% of the 3rd is in the pricey Philadelphia media market, while the balance is in the very expensive New York City market.
While Kim is a very strong fundraiser, Richter has self-funded most of his effort up till now. Richter, who spent months running in the neighboring 2nd District before Rep. Jeff Van Drew defected to the Republican Party, threw down $600,000 of his own money through mid-June, but he only hauled in a grand total of $200,000 from donors during the entire campaign up until that point. Republicans will likely make retaking this seat a priority, though, and we're expecting a competitive contest. Daily Kos Elections rates this as a Tossup.
● NJ-05: While the Associated Press has not made a projection in the Democratic primary for this North Jersey seat yet, Glen Rock Councilwoman Arati Kreibich has conceded to Rep. Josh Gottheimer. With 9,300 votes counted, Gottheimer leads 69-31.
On the GOP side, with 13,000 votes in, former Wall Street banker Frank Pallotta is ahead 65-16; the AP has not called this race yet, either. While this district narrowly backed Trump, it may not matter much who ultimately emerges with the GOP nod. Highly educated suburban districts like this one have been shifting hard to the left during the Trump era, and the extremely well-funded Gottheimer will be incredibly tough to dislodge. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Safe Democratic.
● NJ-08: Veteran Democratic Rep. Albio Sires decisively fended off a challenge from the left in this safely blue seat in the Jersey City area and inner New York City suburbs. With 23,000 votes counted, Sires leads attorney Hector Oseguera 76-21.
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