Continuing my ongoing series about the 2020 election (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here), here I update you on the most recent status of the Senate races. We’ll look at the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts at this time, then consider the polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270towin (270).
Last time I included Shaheen’s NH race, in part because of a mailer I got from her campaign about how NH is really a purple state and GOP strength there and yada yada. The numbers show no risk to her seat. This week we’ll take a second look at MI — because I got a mailer from Peters’ campaign saying a recent poll has his race tied and he really could use a donation. So, without further delay, the current state of the Senate battle (numbers are from July 31):
Princeton Election Consortium: D 52, R 48 (updated daily; change of -1 seats for the Ds). MT, KS, and ME continue to be their “Moneyball” states.
CNN: no update to their own ratings (since May 2). CNN rates Democrats as clear favorites in AZ, CO, and ME, while forecasting the Rs to take back the AL seat. This would result in 49 seats, but Ds are given at least a 25-30% in IA, KS, and MT, so winning just one would put them at 50. I’d call this a 50-50 D-R split. While we wait for them to update their own predictions, CNN did recently run a nifty piece showing how R seats have become increasingly competitive over the course of this year.
Electoral-vote.com: D 51, R 47, ties 2 (updated daily; no change). Current ties are MT and SC. IA, NH, and VA are rated ‘barely D.’
Rachel Bitecofer: D 50, R 46, toss-ups 4 (updated 7/26; change of +1 for toss-ups). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Special, IA, KS, and MT.
Inside Elections: D 48, R 48, toss-ups 4 (no update). Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME, MT, NC.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 48, R 50, toss-ups 2 (no update). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are ME and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 47, R 47, toss-ups 6 (updated July 23; +1 for Ds, +2 toss-ups). Ds pick up AZ, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: D 46, R 47, toss-ups 7 (no change). Toss-ups are AZ, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MT, NC. As we’ll see below, it’s highly dubious that RCP keeps MI on this list.
So, of 8 models we’re tracking, none show a R majority (51+) at this point. However, I think the D path to a Senate majority looks tougher than Biden’s path to a Presidential victory. Now for the individual races:
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +6.0 (270). I’m not showing RCP because they continue to have a single poll up for this race, which dates to last August (!). This one is definitely going in the wrong direction; Hickenlooper was up by 17-18 pts in polls from May, and is now down to single digits in July polls. Considering how blue CO has been in recent elections, there’s no good reason for it to be this close.
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +9.0 (270), D+6.8 (RCP). In sharp contrast to CO, Kelly’s lead over McSally continues to widen in both averages.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +8.2 (270), D +6.2 (RCP). Cunningham’s lead is widening even more quickly than Kelly’s; NC looks better and better.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +5.0 (270), D +4.5 (RCP). And the D lead here widen as well, although not as dramatically as in AZ and NC.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +2.0 (270), D +1.0 (RCP). No change. This one continues to be a nail-biter.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): D +0.2 (270), D +2.0 (RCP — a single poll). The 270 average includes multiple July polls. Another true toss-up.
KS (Bollier/D vs ?): No polling averages here. Although the KS primary has not yet occurred, Bullock is up by 1-2 pts in recent polls against Kobach. So let’s hope he’s the R nominee, and can weigh them down in this race the way he lost them the KS governorship.
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs Collins/R): Due to the open primary, there’s no clear picture here, although the top R candidates combine for over 50% of the vote — suggesting this one tilts R. If there’s a 50-49 split (depending on the Presidential outcome, for either party) after election day, this could become the most important race.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): R +3.7 (270), R +5.0 (RCP). Ossoff continues to be an underdog.
Next, the two most awful GOP senators of today:
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +21, averaging two July polls on 270; RCP has no polls listed at all. This looks more and more like McGrath has no traction, which is somewhat amazing consider McConnell does not appear well-liked even in his home state.
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): R +7 (270), R +12.3 (RCP). This is not close to being a toss-up (yet).
And finally:
MI (Peters/D vs. James/R): D +12.2 (270), D +9.4 (RCP). I’m going to save my money and toss Peters’ mailing out — he doesn’t need my help. And frankly, it’s kind of annoying to get these panicky sorts of mailings. At least as annoying as those click-bait shrieking emails saying “Emergency!” and “This is our last chance” and so on. Just — stop. Please.
So what do you think? Are there other Senate seats that should be on the radar (maybe Alaska)? What’s going on in Colorado? And Kentucky? How do we nail down the majority?