This continues an ongoing series about the 2020 Senate elections (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here), We’ll review the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts at this time, then the polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and 270towin (270).
Last time I included Shaheen’s NH race, in part because of a mailer I got from her campaign about how NH is really a purple state and GOP strength there and yada yada. The numbers show no risk to her seat. This week we’ll take a second look at MI — because I got a mailer from Peters’ campaign saying a recent poll has his race tied and he really could use a donation. So, without further delay, the current state of the Senate battle (numbers are from July 31):
Princeton Election Consortium: D 52, R 48 (updated daily, no change). MT, KS, and AK are now their Senate “Moneyball” states.
CNN (updated 8/1): Analyst Harry Enten now gives a 60% chance of Ds winning at least 4 seats (AZ, CO, ME, and NC are the likely pickups) while losing just 1 (AL). We can call this a 50-50 split. However, Enten also rates IA a 50-50 toss-up and gives the Ds a 40% chance in MT and the Perdue seat in GA, while no other Ds are seen as genuinely vulnerable.
Electoral-vote.com: D 51, R 49 (updated daily; 2 ties, MT and SC, shift to R). D pickups are AZ, CO IA, ME, and NC; the R pickup is AL.
Rachel Bitecofer: D 50, R 46, toss-ups 4 (no update). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are GA-Special, IA, KS, and MT.
Inside Elections: D 48, R 48, toss-ups 4 (no update). Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME, MT, NC.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 48, R 49, toss-ups 3 (updated 8/5; +1 toss-up). Ds pick up AZ and CO; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA, ME and NC.
Cook Political Report: D 47, R 47, toss-ups 6 (no update). D pick up AZ, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MT, and NC.
RealClearPolitics: D 45, R 46, toss-ups 9 (+2 toss-ups). Toss-ups are AZ, CO, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MT, NC, SC. Aside from keeping MI as a highly dubious “tossup,” RCP shifted AZ back to a toss-up but also moved Lindsey Graham’s SC race to toss-up status as well.
So, of 8 models we’re tracking, once again none show the Rs at 50 or more seats, while 4 show 50+ seats for the Ds. However, Senate control is still not as likely as a Biden win appears to be at this point.
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +11.2 (270), D+7.4 (RCP). Kelly’s lead widens a little more.
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +6.0 (270). RCP now shows no polls for this race. No new polling; Hickenloopers lead remains greatly shrunken from the strong double-digit advantage he showed earlier in the year.
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +5.2 (270), D +4.5 (RCP). Gideon maintains a firm lead.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +5.0 (270), D +4.8 (RCP). Some tightening, but Cunningham remains firmly in the lead.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +1.0 (270), D +0.3 (RCP). This one has tightened up and is closest to a 50-50 split.
KS (Bollier/D vs Marshall/R): R +1.5 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). The GOP at last has a definite candidate here, and it’s not Kobach. However, they can’t be happy that this race is still a toss-up, even with their preferred candidate.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): R +3.2 (270), R +4.0 (RCP). Little change here; Ossoff continues to trail, but it’s clearly winnable.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): R +4.5 (270), R +2.0 (RCP). A clear swing back towards the Rs, but still a toss-up — unless Daines can extend his lead.
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs Collins/R): We’ll look more closely at this again as the election approaches, given the multicandidate field.
Next, the two most awful GOP senators of today:
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): R +2.6 (270). RCP has this as R +8.0, but that includes an old February poll with a 17-pt Graham lead. The two July polls shown average to R +3.5. I’ll actually agree with RCP for once and now consider this a toss-up; Graham looks shakier than Perdue right now.
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +14.6 (270); R +5.0 (RCP). Whether by single or double digits, McConnell is still a clear favorite, but this race is still in need of some clarity.
Discuss! Are there other election models I should include? Are there other seats the Democrats can target? Can Graham really lose in bright-red SC? Could a narrow Biden win swing a Senate majority? How and where should we contribute to Senate races?