State Sen. Stephanie Bice won Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff 53-47 against businesswoman Terry Neese in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District. Just after the contest was decided, the DCCC released an early August survey from GQR Research that found freshman Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn leading Bice 51-46; the sample also gave Donald Trump just a 48-47 edge in an Oklahoma City-based seat he’d carried 53-40 four years ago. We haven’t seen any other polling here.
Horn pulled off what was arguably the biggest upset of 2018 when she unseated Republican Rep. Steve Russell in a seat the GOP had held for 44 years, and both parties are preparing for an expensive contest here. The NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund have reserved $4.3 million in fall TV time to go after Horn, and the CLF aired its very first general election ad of the cycle against her this week. The DCCC and House Majority PAC, meanwhile, have booked $1.7 million to aid the incumbent.
Horn herself will start the contest with a huge financial edge over Bice. The incumbent had $2.6 million on-hand at the end of June, while Bice had to spend nearly two additional months going through an expensive contest against Neese and the anti-tax Club for Growth, which dropped $635,000 on anti-Bice ads for the runoff. Still, while Bice has only a little more than two months to raise money for the general election, conservative donors will likely aid her now that she’s their nominee in a key seat. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as a Tossup.