Massachusetts concludes its primaries on Tuesday for congressional and state offices, and you'll find our guide to the most important races below. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
As we always caution, we may not know all the winners on election night. Massachusetts, like many states this year, has dramatically expanded its use of mail-in voting because of the coronavirus pandemic, and election watchers everywhere should expect that we might not learn the results in every race for some time—perhaps days or even weeks.
Our live coverage will begin at 8 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the polls close. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the cycle’s remaining down-ballot primaries, as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
• MA-Sen (D) (60-33 Clinton, 61-38 Obama): Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey faces a competitive Democratic primary challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy III, who is a member of what is arguably America’s most prominent political family.
Kennedy began the race arguing that he could bring change to a political system that Markey, who was first elected to the House in 1976, has been a member of since before Kennedy was born. However, the senator has worked hard to portray himself as the candidate who is challenging the status quo, and despite his age (and his opponent's relative youth), Markey has emerged as a big favorite of young activists.
In key part, that's because the incumbent has seized the mantle of 21st century progressivism, best exemplified by his support from New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has extolled Markey for championing Medicare For All and the Green New Deal. Kennedy, by contrast, enjoys the backing of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a super PAC funded by Kennedy's family. Both campaigns have raised large sums and have benefited from millions in help from outside groups.
Markey, who had fairly low name recognition a year ago, trailed Kennedy when the congressman entered the race a year ago. That was before both sides began spending heavily, though, and even some Kennedy supporters agree that he’s struggled to explain why voters should fire their senator. Five polls released in August have given Markey a lead ranging from two to 15 points, but because this will be the first primary in Massachusetts history where voting by mail will be widely available, no one is quite sure what turnout will look like.
• MA-01 (D) (57-37 Clinton, 64-34 Obama): Democratic Rep. Richie Neal, who was first elected to Congress in 1988, faces a primary challenge from Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse in the safely blue 1st District in western Massachusetts. The 31-year-old Morse, who was born the same year that the incumbent was first elected, has argued that Neal is too close to special interests and has been reluctant to use his powerful position as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee to combat the Trump administration.
Neal’s backers, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have asserted in response that the incumbent is an effective congressman who provides for his seat. Neal also earned a high-profile endorsement in the final days of the race from Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican who enjoys strong approval ratings even from Democrats. The well-funded Neal and allied PACs have also dramatically outspent Morse’s side, though outside groups like the Justice Democrats have nonetheless devoted sizable sums to boost Morse.
Just a month before the election, the campaign took an ugly turn when a trio of campus Democratic groups, including one at a school where Morse had taught, accused the mayor of "taking advantage of his position of power for romantic or sexual gain, specifically toward young students."
Morse denied having any relationships with his students, but the focus of the story shifted dramatically when subsequent reporting suggested that one of the College Democrats' leaders behind the letter had deliberately sought to harm Morse's campaign. Morse ultimately accepted an apology from the College Democrats of Massachusetts, and Neal's campaign never sought to make hay of the incident.
Though the race has generated many headlines, we've only seen two polls here. A mid-August Morse internal from Beacon Research that had Neal ahead by a 46-41 spread, while a RABA Research survey taken in the last week of the primary for the news site Jewish Insider had the incumbent up 49-40.
• MA-04 (D) (59-35 Clinton, 57-41 Obama): Democrats have an expensive seven-way contest to succeed Senate candidate Joe Kennedy in the safely blue 4th District, which stretches from Brookline and Newton in the Boston area south to Bristol County along the Rhode Island border.
Newton City Councilor Jake Auchincloss, a Marine veteran, is the contest’s top spender, but he’s attracted scrutiny for his loyalties and past statements. Notably, Auchincloss worked for Republican Charlie Baker's 2014 campaign for governor, and in 2016 he urged a local superintendent not to punish Newton students who had flown a Confederate flag outside their high school.
Four other well-funded candidates are also competing: Newton City Councilor Becky Walker Grossman; City Year co-founder Alan Khazei; former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey, who had been challenging Kennedy from the left before he ran for the Senate; and Jesse Mermell, who ran a coalition of state businesses pushing progressive legislation called the Alliance for Business Leadership. Two other contenders, public health expert Natalia Linos and attorney Ben Sigel, are also running, but they haven’t brought in much money or major support.
We’ve seen two polls here in the last few weeks, and they both found an extremely close contest. A mid-August poll from Data for Progress gave Auchincloss the lead with 14%, while Grossman and Mermell were tied for second with 13% each. Linos and Leckey each took 9%, with Khazei and Sigel at 7% and 3%, respectively. A RABA Research survey taken in the final days of the campaign for Jewish Insider, meanwhile, had Auchincloss edging out Mermell 23-22, while Grossman was in third with 15%.
• MA-06 (D) (56-38 Clinton, 55-44 Obama): While several Democrats showed an interest in taking on Rep. Seth Moulton in late 2018 when he spearheaded a futile effort to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the speaker's chair, no strong opponents emerged even while Moulton was waging an equally doomed run for president. The two Democrats who did announce, attorney Angus McQuilken and women's health advocate Jamie Zahlaway Belsito, have each raised very little money, and there’s no indication that Moulton is in any danger in this reliably blue seat north of Boston.
• MA-08 (D) (60-34 Clinton, 58-41 Obama): Rep. Stephen Lynch has long been one of the more conservative members of the Democratic caucus, especially on abortion rights, though he's always turned back challenges from the left with ease. This time, though, physician Robbie Goldstein may be putting up a stronger fight: A few weeks ago, Goldstein's campaign released an internal poll from Lincoln Park Strategies that showed him trailing Lynch just 39-32, and Lynch never responded with different numbers.
The well-funded incumbent, however, isn’t acting very worried. Lynch only began running commercials in the final week of the race, and Politico reports that he spent just $25,000 on that brief advertising campaign. Goldstein himself has only spent $52,000 on TV, which is a relatively small amount in the expensive Boston media market, and he’s received little outside help. But whoever wins will have no trouble prevailing in the fall in this seat, which includes Lynch's longtime South Boston base as well as the southern Boston suburbs.
Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you’ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!
