The only country which is even close to doing as poorly as the United States in managing the pandemic is Brazil where they also have a denier in chief. Let’s consider where we are among other “advanced” nations. We are adding 50,000 cases a day right now and 1300 deaths a day. We have over two million active cases. Dr. Birx said on CNN that she would not be surprised if we were to surpass 300,000 deaths. Again, we are adding 50,000 cases a day. But’s let’s imagine in a different world that we didn’t add a single new case from this day forward. Let’s pretend. Well, we still have over 2 million active cases and a great many of them are going to die. We have a mortality rate so far of resolved cases that is very high because we are only testing superstars and those who are very sick. Those who don’t have terrible symptoms and are not superstars are not being tested. Well, those who are more sick are more likely to die, aren’t they ! So, of the resolved cases, greater than 6% of them are deaths (less than 2.5 million recovered and 160,000 deaths — those are the resolved cases — either you recover or you did — so rounding 16/ 266 is a little greater than 6%) . Let’s knock that down to five percent. Then, at current rates, we could expect to see 5% of the more than 2 million active cases to die which would be 100,000 new deaths. So, we have saved up another 100,000 deaths for ourselves for later .
Now, of course, that’s just if we were to not see a single new case ever again. Now, we are adding 50,000 new cases a day. Even if we drop that rate down to 4% for the new cases, we could expect at that rate to be adding 2,000 more deaths that we are saving up for ourselves. We’re in deep, deep trouble here. We aren’t likely to start ramping up testing because Trump believes that testing causes new cases just like testing causes one to be pregnant, wait, it doesn’t. Nevermind. President Dumbass . Based upon the deaths that we have saved up, if we want to limit ourselves to 300,000 deaths , then we need to get only 50,000 deaths between now and January 20 when, hopefully, president dumbass will be out of office. That’s more than five months from now. So, that would be only 10,000 deaths a month, less than 400 a day. We lost over 1300 souls yesterday alone. Clearly, unfortunately, we will have lost more than 300,000 lives to this pandemic at a minimum and 500,000 might be more likely. It is said that we lost 500,000 lives to the 1918 pandemic. Granted fewer people lived in the United States at the time, but we also didn’t have the advances in medical science that we have made since then. This is like living in 1918 with the pandemic, the 1930s with the Great Depression, and the 1960s with racial tension , and all at the same time. So, it is no wonder that Dr. Birx admitted what seems to be an undeniable fact to anybody who can do simple arithmetic. Trump, however, heard the number 300,000 and saw his election chances go up in smoke and got made and threw a twitter tantrum at Dr. Birx for admitting the obvious.
Now, that we have looked at our own numbers, let’s look at those of Europe and China. It started in China and China is very densely populated. Italy was overrun by the pandemic.
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Comparisons of Countries results with the pandemic
Name of country |
total cases |
new cases |
total deaths |
new deaths |
deaths per million |
deaths built in ADVANTAGE * |
|
United states |
5 million |
50,000 |
160,000 |
1300 |
484 |
712 |
|
china |
85,000 |
36 |
4,600 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
|
italy |
250,000 |
190 |
35,000 |
5 |
582 |
582 |
|
france |
192,000 |
1,000 |
30,000 |
2 |
464 |
464 |
|
germany |
213,000 |
760 |
9,200 |
0 |
110 |
110 |
|
spain |
350,000 |
5,760 |
29,000 |
26 |
609 |
609 |
|
United kingdom |
310,000 |
670 |
46,000 |
89 |
682 |
682 |
|
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.*Spain had a total of 350,000 cases. Their active cases must be less than 350,000 cases. We have greater than 2,250,000 ACTIVE CASES . None of the other countries had as many as 350,000 total cases. Thus, all of the above countries other than the US have fewer than 350,000 active cases. So, we have at least 1,900,000 more active cases than any of them do. The percentage of our deaths per resolved cases is SIX PERCENT (well, greater than six percent, but whatevs) . Trump won’t ramp up testing since he believes this causes more cases. Only either a superstar or somebody who has really terrible symptoms can get tested and those with terrible symptoms are more likely to die than others, aren’t they. So, that’s why the number is greater and since there is no reason to expect that Trump will increase testing since he sees that the greater the number the worse his chances of winning re-election, then I can’t see increasing testing, and thus, the mortality rate of our cases is not necessarily likely to decrease. Still, let’s cut it from six percent to four percent. Even so, we have an additional (1,900,000 times .04) 76,000 deaths than any of the other countries since we have at least 1,900,000 more active cases than they do since we have 2,250,000 active cases and none of the others have as many as 350,000 TOTAL cases. So, we can add the inevitable deaths from our active cases over now, and that takes our death total from 160,000 to 236,000 deaths. 236,000 / 331 gives us our deaths per million and that would be 712 deaths per million. So, we will be leading in the deaths per million . We have more than 30 times as many deaths as China already, not counting the inevitable deaths. China shows that just because a country has more people doesn’t mean that more deaths are inevitable. There is no obvious reason why deaths per million is a better statistic than total number of deaths and when we are over 150,000 deaths, then saying we have more deaths because we have more people is not at all a compelling argument. At a certain point (below 150,000 deaths), any competent government, no matter how populous a country they govern, will find a way to limit the number of cases and deaths.
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50,000 / 5760 = 8.68 and 331 / 47 = 7.04 . This means that the ratio of our new cases to the new cases in Spain is less than the ratio of our population to their population. That means that we are going to have more deaths per million going forward than Spain.
Now, the only column that Trump is interested in is one that fits his propaganda so that he can get a second term. So, going forward, all things being equal, we should see eight times as many deaths in the US as any other country going forward. I am only going to pick the ones who are currently leading us in deaths per million. Italy has a population of 60 million, Spain has a population of 47 million, and the UK has a population of 67 million. I did simplify the equations . We have more active cases already than any other country and although Spain seems not to have released those numbers, it is impossible that they have more active cases than we do since they have only had a total of 350,000 cases and we have 2.25 million active cases. They can’t have more active cases than us since their number of active cases is less than their total number of cases and their total number of cases is less than the number of active cases that we have. a<b and b<c → a<c . So, we have at least 2,250,000 million — 350,000 = 1,900,000 more active cases than they do. Even though our resolved percentage of deaths per cases is six percent, let’s just make it four percent and multiply four percent times 1,900,000 =76,000 . So, we should expect that we have an additional seventy six thousand more deaths coming than they do at a minimum. Now, if we go ahead and put those deaths in, then we would have 236,000 deaths. Now, 236,000 deaths / 331 will give us our number of deaths per million which is 712.99 or 713 deaths per million.
484 + ((50,000 *(.04d) )/331) = US
582+ ((190*(.04d))/60) = Italy
609+ ((5760*(.04d))/47 = Spain
682+((670*(.04d))/67) = UK
Now we can put these equations into our TI 84 for a system of equations and see when the US equation crosses the last equation and passes it. D would be x and d stands for days. I can’t seem to find my TI 84 (might have given it to one of my students !) . So, I can simplify and go forward.
484 + 6.04d
582 + .1d
609 + 4.9 d
682 + .4 d
this could become a comparison of
712 + 6 d
582 + .1 d
609 + 5 d
682 + .4 d
However, even in the top equation, in 125 days, the US will have more deaths per million ignoring the deaths built in advantage. This is easy to see. Round the 4.9 d for Spain up to 5. The US will average 1 more death per million per day and ignoring our built in death advantage, we are only behind 125 deaths per million. Since the deaths per day per million advantage that we have is actually greater than 1 (6-4.9 is not 1 but rather 1.1) , then in less than 125 days, we will lead in the deaths per million category as well. So, in about four months, even ignoring our deaths per million built in advantage, we would surpass Spain and become the leader among the first world nations in deaths per million.
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.So, we are first meaning last in every fucking category in our pandemic response. We’re number one ! USA is number in most total cases, most active cases, most deaths, most new deaths, most new daily cases, and soon we will be number one in most deaths per million.
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.So, let’s review:
Trump was warned by American researchers within the World Health Organization about the dangers of the novel coronavirus in 2019. Trump was warned by American intelligence agencies about the dangers of the novel coronavirus in January. Trump was warned about the dangers of the novel coronavirus in his presidential daily briefings.
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Trump was warned by his own HHS Secretary whom he chose, Secretary Azar, about how dangerous the novel coronavirus was and he called Secretary Azar an alarmist. Joe Biden warned Trump and the nation about how dangerous the novel coronavirus could be in an opinion editorial in the USA Today in January. Trump had access to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, FEMA, the nation’s intelligence agencies, and epidemiologists like Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci. He had plenty of warnings and access to information to know by early February that he needed to act and he failed to. No other elected position is voted on by voters across the country. The pandemic affected the entire country. Therefore, the person who is president must take the lead in managing the pandemic. If one state has very strict requirements (must wear mask, must social distance, no large crowd gatherings, businesses shut down) and a contiguous state has weak requirements (if any), then that will simply result in moving the novel coronavirus from one state to another. We need a uniform response across the country. Until the last several weeks, Trump never wore a mask in public, nor did he demonstrate social distancing. He minimized the dangers of the novel coronavirus. So, people who listen to him believed it was not dangerous and mostly a hoax. They followed the president’s practice and didn’t wear a mask. He needed to model the good recommendations by the CDC and act as if he has it and so does everybody around him.
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.We have some of the best medical universities in the world and some of the best epidemiologists in the world. This did not have to happen. Trump’s refusal to take responsibility and refusal to stand up to lead and manage the pandemic response because he was afraid that it would hurt his re-election is why this has turned out the way that it did. He cared more about his own re-election than he did about saving lives. The irony is that as a result, he has hurt his own re-election chances greatly by doing this. If he had managed the pandemic response well, this would have been a very close election. His failure to lead and manage the pandemic response well is likely to have doomed his electoral chances. There are 76,000 deaths already baked in and then add in deaths from the 50,000 new cases coming in daily or even just think about over 1300 deaths a day from this point on and think about where we will be by election day. All due to President Narcissist !
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..And pardon me, but every time I hear these rvat people say that they could not vote for or refused to vote for Hillary Clinton or thought somehow that Trump was a better choice than Hillary Clinton or thought that it would be a good idea to vote third party and allow the chance for Trump to win the election, I feel sick. Being president is NOT AN ENTRY LEVEL POSITION. Hillary Clinton, in addition to being the spouse of President Bill Clinton, won two elections as US Senator from New York and served as Secretary of State under President Barack Obama and has a JD from Yale. Donald Trump barely graduated with an undergraduate degree and had ZERO ELECTED EXPERIENCE AND ZERO EXPERIENCE IN GOVERNMENT. It was already known he was a bigot, a misogynist and a severe narcissist. How the hell could they STILL think that their vote for third party or non vote or vote for Trump instead of voting for Hillary Clinton makes sense ? Most of these people still think that it is acceptable that they did not vote for Hillary Clinton and that somehow the rest of us will find that in any way a rational choice. And most of that is because they are misogynists because their reasoning was that Hillary was a bad person because Bill Clinton committed adultery. And therefore they should vote for somebody who had zero elected experience and zero experience in government and who barely graduated with an undergraduate degree and is a severe narcissist and bigot instead of somebody who was elected to two terms as US Senator from NY and served as Secretary of State and earned a JD from Yale.
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So, We are Number One ! We are FIRST MEANING LAST !
Wednesday, Aug 5, 2020 · 10:55:35 PM +00:00
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Dem
Here’s what this is like: guy puts his right hand on a burner that is on and hot. Burns the shit out of his right hand. He joins a group whose name is Won’t Burn My Left Hand and uploads a video to their website. In it, he says that it would be truly stupid to put his left hand on the burner when it is on and hot again. A friend on the video asks him, “How do you know that it would be stupid to put your left hand on a burner that was on and hot ? “ The guy answers, “Because when I did that with my right hand, my right hand got really burned badly !” The friend asks him, “So, do you think maybe it was a mistake to put your right hand on the burner when it was on and hot ?” And the guy answers, “Oh Hell no ! I absolutely was right to put my right hand on that burner when it was on and hot ! I refused to not put my right hand on that burner when it was on and hot ! “
The people who are against putting either hand on a burner that is on and hot are gratified that the guy won’t be putting his left hand on a burner that is on and hot, but are completely absolutely stumped and flummoxed that the guy can’t seem to figure out what a terrible mistake he made by putting his right hand on that burner that was on and hot. However, all of the other people who uploaded videos to the Won’t Burn My Left Hand agree that it was the right call to go ahead and put the right hand on the burner that was on and hot even though the people who are against putting either hand on a burner that is on and hot warned all of the members of the Won’t Burn My Left Hand group that putting their right hand on a burner that was on and hot was a very bad and dangerous thing to do.