We are seeing a widening of sorts in the polls favoring Biden again over the last 2 days of polling, in national polls and also in state polls. That goes in tandem with a worsening of Trump’s approval numbers. Let’s look at the polls.
1. Trump approval
Trump approval appears to get worse. This is likely the effect of Trump’s “Suckers and Losers” comments recently. The latest polls show Trump’s approval/disapproval mostly going back to negative mid-teens for Trump.
and the gross outlier, Rasmussen:
Taken all together and aggregated these 7 polls average out to a margin of -11.43%.
2. National Polls widening again
2.1 USC Dornsife poll, 15% margin, Biden 55%, Trump 40%.
election.usc.edu
Just 4 days ago, on Sept. 5, the USC Dornsife poll showed a 9% margin. It is now a 15% margin. In this poll Biden’s lead has widened by 6% over the last 5 days.
2.2 Reuters/Ipsos poll, 12% margin, Biden 52%, Trump 40%.
www.ipsos.com/…
Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally among likely voters: Reuters/Ipsos
Democrat Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 12 percentage points nationally among likely U.S. voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll that also showed the number of persuadable voters had shrunk compared with four years ago.
The Sept. 3-8 poll, released on Wednesday, found 52% of likely voters planned to support Biden, while 40% would back Trump. Three percent said they would vote for another candidate, and just 5% said they remained undecided with less than two months to go until the Nov. 3 presidential election.
The survey showed the number of voters who had not yet backed a major-party candidate to be less than half of what it was in 2016, and that Biden currently had the advantage in securing the national popular vote.
One week ago, on Sept. 2, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed a 7% margin. It is now a 12% margin. In this poll Biden’s lead has widened by 5% over the last week.
2.3 Harris and Harris X polls, both show Biden up by 8%. Harris — Biden 54%, Trump 46%, Harris X — Biden 47%, Trump 39%.
harvardharrispoll.com/…
thehill.com/…
The survey finds Biden maintaining his lead in the Midwest and among suburbanites.
Forty-seven percent of Midwestern voters said they'd chose Biden over Trump in November, a 4 percentage point gain for Biden.
Trump trailed Biden among suburban voters by 8 points in the Sept. 5-8 survey.
These 2 polls both showed Biden with a 6% margin over Trump one week and 5 days ago, respectively:
Now both are showing 8% Biden leads. Biden widened his lead in both of these polls by 2% over the previous polls.
2.4 Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, 9% margin. Biden 49%, Trump 40%.
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/…
Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest weekly voting intention poll for the US Presidential Election finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 9%, which represents a 1% increase in Biden’s lead compared to last week.[1] For the second week in a row, 49% of voters believe they will vote for Biden, whereas support for Trump decreased by one percentage point to 40%. The proportion of undecided voters remained at 7%. Altogether, our latest results are as follows:
One week ago, on Sept. 2, the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll showed an 8% margin. It is now a 9% margin. In this poll Biden’s lead has widened by 1% over the last week, a marginal improvement, but likely just poll noise at that level.
2.5 Yougov poll, 9% margin, Biden 52%, Trump 43%.
In their previous poll from Sept. 3 Biden was up by 10%. Now at 9% this Yougov poll shows a 1% tightening, a marginal tightening, likely just poll noise.
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3. STATE POLLS
Lots of state polls out over the last 2 days. There are so many that I decided to restrict this to only A or B rated pollsters (as per 538) — B/C rating still makes the cut.
3.1 PENNSYLVANIA
3.1.1 A+ rated Marist/NBC poll, 9% margin, Biden 53%, Trump 44%.
Poll: Biden leads by 9 in Pennsylvania
The Democratic ticket gets a boost from suburban voters in the key battleground state who broke for Trump four years ago, a new NBC News/Marist poll finds.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 9-point margin among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a key swing state where Biden was born, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.
The survey finds that Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, get the support of 53 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters, compared with 44 percent who back Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. In 2016, Trump barely bested Hillary Clinton in the state by less than 1 percentage point.
Unlike Clinton four years ago, Biden — who was born in Scranton and frequently refers to his upbringing there — has a net positive favorability rating with Pennsylvania voters. Fifty percent view him favorably, while 46 percent view him negatively.
Biden has a net favorability in Pennsylvania of +4%, Trump is underwater on favorability in the state by -10%.
As the president continues to claim that the Biden-Harris ticket would allow unchecked crime and decrease property values in America's suburbs, suburban and college-educated voters are boosting Biden's margins in Pennsylvania.
Among suburban likely voters, Biden leads Trump by nearly 20 points, 58 percent to 39 percent. That's a significant flip from 2016, when Trump won suburban voters in the state by about 8 points, according to exit polls.
Among likely voters with college degrees, Biden also leads, 63 percent to 34 percent. And the Democratic ticket leads among women, 59 percent to 38 percent.
Biden has a similar edge among independents, 57 percent to 35 percent.
Ahead in the burbs by 19%, by 21% with women, and by 22% with Independents. PA looks good for us.
PDF: maristpoll.marist.edu/…
3.2 MINNESOTA
3.2.1 A rated Survey USA, 9% margin, Biden 49%, Trump 40%
www.surveyusa.com/…
With Early Voting About to Start,
Democrat Biden Is 9 Points Atop Republican Trump
10 days till early voting begins in Minnesota and 8 weeks till votes are counted, President Donald Trump's dream of siphoning Minnesota's 10 Electoral College Votes into the Republican column appears elusive, according to fresh SurveyUSA election polling conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.
* Biden 49%.
* Trump 40%.
* Biden voters appear more motivated. Among those who are 100% certain to vote, Joe leads by 13.
* Among those who are likely to vote, but not 100% certain, Trump leads by 9.
* Among those who will vote in person, on Election Day, Trump leads by 27 points.
* Among those who will vote early, by US mail, Biden leads by 55 points.
When likely voters are asked which of the 2 Presidential candidates would keep you safer, the answers match the vote totals:
* 49% in MN say Biden would keep them safer, including 54% of independents, 55% of moderates.
* 40% in MN say Trump would keep them safer, including 33% of independents, 29% of moderates.
* Biden leads on safety by 18 points in the Twin Cities area; Trump leads, though narrowly, elsewhere in MN.
Trump is moving ad Dollars from Wisconsin to Minnesota, hoping that more rural Minnesota will give him more love than Wisconsin appears to (Wisconsin is going to Biden at about 8% in the aggregate.) This poll from A rated Survey USA puts a damper on those ambitious thoughts.
3.3 FLORIDA
A+ rated Marist poll, Even, Biden 48%, Trump 48%
Poll: Trump and Biden are tied in battleground Florida
President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are deadlocked in the battleground of Florida eight weeks before Election Day, with ballots being mailed to state voters later this month, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.
Trump and Biden both get the support of 48 percent of likely voters, with the president ahead among Latinos in the state, and Biden doing better with seniors than Hillary Clinton did four years ago.
PDF: maristpoll.marist.edu/…
The one “fly in the ointment”, so to speak, is Florida. Other polling shows Biden still ahead in Florida by margins between 3% and 5%, but Marist is a very highly rated pollster, which requires some respect for their findings. Looks like Biden has some work to do with the Latino community in this state to win it.
3.4 MORNING CONSULT STATE POLLS
Presidential Contest Has Been Largely Stable in 2020 Battlegrounds
In the Morning Consult battery of state polls we see mostly stability and for the most part movement toward Biden. The polls compare the states pre-convention and post-convention.
Arizona went from being +2% favoring Trump to now favoring Biden by 3%, which mirrors the movement we have seen toward Biden from Arizona in other recent polls. Florida now shows a 5% lead for Biden, 50% to 45%, which is exactly where the state was pre-conventions. Georgia has remained the same. Michigan has moved stronger toward Biden, is now at +10%, whereas before the conventions Biden’s lead was 6%. North Carolina is about the same as it was, a slight Biden lead, Ohio the same, a small Trump lead, Pennsylvania remained about the same (MC has PA with a 5% Biden lead now). Things are tied up in Texas and Wisconsin has moved further into Biden’s column (was a Biden lead of 6% before the conventions, is now an 8% lead).
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Conclusion
National polling and the Trump disapproval margin is moving into double digits again, likely in reaction to some of the revelations that have come out recently about Trump’s disparaging comments about military personnel. State polling is moving toward Biden in some important ways. Most recent Michigan and Wisconsin polling appears to suggest that these 2 states are moving strongly into Biden’s direction and are elusive for Trump. Trump is already completely dark in Michigan as for spending on advertising, and he is moving ad funds out of Wisconsin to Minnesota, which suggests Trump might be giving up on Wisconsin as well. Pennsylvania polling shows Biden doing well, especially in the quality polls, and Biden’s home state looks like it might be elusive for Trump as well. Arizona has strongly moved toward Biden lately, while Florida has narrowed some.
As always, it has to be said:
Polls are snapshots of the here and now. Important trends can be made out but things can change with events as they unfold. Things are looking good for Biden and Democrats at the moment, and trends are in our favor, but the numbers are meaningless if people don’t come out to vote. So, GOTV as if your and everyone’s life depended on it. Because it does.