I haven’t seen this reassuring take referenced here. In the qualitative-judgment part of the non-partisan, politics-as-horse-race commentariat, Charlie Cook is as mainstream and respected as they come. And this week, he declared the Presidential election all but over, with Biden the near-certain winner. cookpolitical.com/… That’s like the moment on Monday Night Football when Don Meredith would start singing “Turn Out The Lights”:
His [Trump’s] standing is impervious to events. The vast majority of voters decided a long time ago whether they liked him or not, whether they would approve of his actions, and whether they would support his candidacy. For many voters, this cake is baked.
Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016.
I know, I know — Seven weeks until the in-person, election day share of votes are cast still leaves time for some minds to change. Those weeks will include debates. Trump and his allies will try to suppress votes, spread misinformation, and hold on to power notwithstanding an election loss. Get Out the Vote. Watch the opposing quarterback, not the scoreboard. And most important, fight like our side’s a few points behind — because it surely is, somewhere, and that place matters too. Not only will US Senate elections have a huge impact on what a Biden administration can or can’t do, but state-level races will have a huge impact on post-census redistricting, and thus will continue to affect national and state politics through 2030.
Cook himself includes some of those caveats. Still, it’s better to be a happy warrior than a desperate one. Off to Act Blue to give more $ to the very likely winner!
Edited to add: Trending List, cool! Thanks for the Recs. Now let’s all get back to working to make it so!
P.S., speaking of icing: WaPo-ABC poll, rated A+ by 538, now has Biden up +16 among Minnesota likely voters. www.washingtonpost.com/… Too good to be entirely
true predictive, and just one poll, but ...