This is the eleventh in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. As usual, we’ll start with the electoral vote breakdowns, then move on to the state-by-state polling for the swing states, followed by my musings about what it all means. All the numbers are from Friday 9/18. This week we add a 14th election modeling site, ourprogress.org.
Ourprogress.org: Biden 289, Trump 125, 124 tossups. Toss-ups are FL, GA, IA, NC, OH, and TX. The no toss-up option shows Biden 351, Trump 187. This site’s methodology includes precinct-level analysis of turnout, demographics, and historical voting patterns. Interestingly, they also include adjustments for voter suppression and for projected COVID-19 effect on turnout. Of course, no one has yet adjusted their model to allow for the Supreme Court battle shaping up following the loss of the most reliable voice for equal rights and equal justice on the Court, Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
PredictIt markets: Biden 319, Trump 219 (updated daily; no change). Closest states are FL (tilt D) and NC (tilt R). Apparently the betting markets are pretty confident about how things stand.
ElectionProjection.com: Biden 319, Trump 219 (updated 9/18; +15 shift to Trump). Weakest D states are AZ, FL, MI, NH, PA, and WI; weakest R states are GA, IA, NC and OH.
JHK model: Biden 326, Trump 212 (updated 9/18; swing of +4 to Trump). AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC and OH are the closest states.
Princeton Election Consortium: Biden 352, Trump 186 (updated daily; swing of +17 to Trump). The link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows GA and OH as tossups.
CNN: Biden 268, Trump 170, 100 tossups (no update). Tossups are AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, WI.
The Economist: Biden 335, Trump 203 (updated daily; swing of +1 to Biden). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are AZ, GA, and NC.
Electoral-vote.com: Biden 368, Trump 170, (updated daily; +18 for Biden and +20 for Trump, as ties drop out). Weakest D states are FL, GA, NC, NH, NV, and OH; weakest R states are AR, IA, and TX.
Plural Vote: Biden 330, Trump 208 (updated daily; swing of +7 to Trump). Weakest D states are AZ and NC; weakest R states are GA, IA, OH and TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: Biden 318, Trump 123, 97 tossups (updated 9/15; you may heard there was a slight brouhaha over Bitecofer’s update, with Bitecofer and Nate Silver of 538 trading barbs). Tossups are AK, GA, IA, NC, OH, TX, and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Inside Elections: Biden 319, Trump 188, 31 tossups (updated 9/18; no change). Tossups are GA and NC. Weakest D states remain AZ, FL, WI; weakest R states remain IA, OH, and TX.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Biden 269, Trump 204, 65 tossups (updated 9/10; +1 to Biden). Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, and WI.
Cook Political Report: Biden 308, Trump 187, 43 tossups (updated 9/17; -18 from Biden to tossup). Tossups are FL, GA, NC, and 1 EV in ME.
Real Clear Politics: Biden 222, Trump 125, 191 tossups (updated daily; +10 each to Biden and Trump). The no toss-up map now shows Biden 353, Trump 185 (+1 to Biden).
The big picture: Of 14 sites, all but 3 show an outright Biden victory before any toss-ups are decided. Go with the no toss-up option where available, and it’s 12 of 14, with only CNN (!) and Sabato not showing Biden as the outright winner. All 12 show Biden with more than 300 electoral votes, ranging from 308 to 368, with 7 in the 318-335 range and 4 more in the 351-368 range.
State-by-state: Here are current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP, in order of largest to smallest margins for Biden as predicted by 538. I’ve added New Hampshire , because it was a weak D state in a couple of models.
(1) MN: Spreads are Biden +8.8 (538, up 2.5) and Biden +10.2 (RCP). If the GOP thought they had a shot based on Clinton’s thin margin in 2016, they were mistaken.
(2) MI: Spreads are Biden +7.7 (538, up 1.0) and Biden +4.8 (RCP).
(3) NH: Spreads are Biden +6.7 (538) and Biden +5.5 (RCP). Another Clinton state from 2016 that looks solid for Biden, so maybe those models suggesting otherwise are just wrong.
(4) WI: Spreads are Biden +6.7 (538, down 0.7) and Biden +6.7 (RCP).
(5) NV: Spreads are Biden +5.5 (538, down 1.0) and Biden +6.0 (RCP). The third and final Clinton state on this list, and little evidence of danger for Biden here either.
(6) PA: Spreads are Biden +4.9 (538, up 0.4) and Biden +4.3 (RCP).
(7) AZ: Spreads are Biden +4.8 (538, up 0.1) and Biden +5.0 (RCP).
(8) FL: Spreads are Biden +2.2 (538, down 0.6) and Biden +1.6 (RCP).
(9) NC: Spreads are Biden +1.2 (538, down 0.6) and Biden +0.9 (RCP).
(10) TX: Spreads are Trump +1.2 (538, Biden down 0.7) and Trump +3.5 (RCP).
(11) GA: Spreads are Trump +1.4 (538, no change) and Trump +1.3 (RCP).
(12) OH: Spreads are Trump +1.5 (538, Biden up 0.3) and Biden +2.4 (RCP).
(13) IA: Spreads are Trump +1.8 (538, Biden down 0.2) and Trump +1.7 (RCP).
(14) AK: No new polls - Trump still +3.3 on average (538) from July polls, and +3 from a single poll on RCP. We have no idea where this until we get more recent data.
And so, after a couple of weeks that included the usual parade of scandals for Trump (sucker- and losergate; Woodwardgate; DeJoygate), we are...pretty much where we were two weeks ago, and four weeks ago, and six weeks ago, and eight weeks ago. The race has in fact tightened slightly in that time frame; 4-6 weeks ago Biden’s projected EVs were generally in the mid-300s and have now come down slight to the low 300s. This is also reflected in the national numbers, which I almost never refer to because they’re not what decides the race. The 538 national polling average has Biden up 6.7; less than a month ago he was over 9 points ahead. But all Clinton states from 2016 appear safe, so Trump is playing defense everywhere, and the WI-MI-PA trifecta appears solidly on Biden’s side. If he wins those three, it’s over. Anything else — NC, FL, AZ — is a bonus. If you had to bet on one of these for Biden, right now it would be AZ — but a good half-dozen other states can go either way. Over the next couple of weeks, we will see how the latest wild card plays out, and whether the death of Justice Ginsburg and the battle of her successor is more energizing to the left or the right.
