The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Senate Forecast: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to roll out our new weekly Senate Forecast, which David Jarman will be publishing every Monday from now through the election. Each week, Jarman looks at the average of all the public polling in each Senate race to asses which seats are likeliest to flip—and, above all, whether Democrats can retake the chamber.
Using a model created by data scientist Drew Linzer, Daily Kos Elections calculates a trendline that best fits the available polls for each contest and computes an average that reflects where things stand today. You can find all of these poll trendlines and averages on our site by drilling down to each race, though note that some don't have any polls at all.
One particularly data-rich example, however, is North Carolina, which, because of its swing-state status has been polled more than 50 times. There, Democrat Cal Cunningham has generally held the lead since winning his party's nomination in March and is currently up 45-41 on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
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Cunningham's race could well be the pivotal one that decides control of the Senate. As of now, Democrats also hold polling leads in Arizona, Colorado, and Maine, while they're on track to lose Alabama. That would give the party a net gain of exactly three seats: Enough for a 50-50 tie under which Kamala Harris could break ties should she and Joe Biden win the race for the White House.
But the full picture, of course, is much more complex. As Jarman notes, September polling in each of the last three elections all made it look plausible that Democrats could win the Senate, yet Republicans won every time—a powerful reminder that polls are, always, a snapshot in time. On the flipside, however, there are many more races that are in close contention this year, including two where our averages are tied and half a dozen more where Republicans have single-digit leads.
Jarman explores what this wide-open field might mean for Democrats in great detail, so if you love chewing over the latest polling data, you'll want to read his forecast this week and every week right through November.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: Pastor Raphael Warnock, who is the favorite of national Democrats in Georgia's special election for the Senate, has released a survey from GBAO to argue that he's well positioned in the Nov. 3 all-party primary. The poll finds appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler in the lead with 29%, while Warnock edges out Republican Rep. Doug Collins 25-19 for the second spot in an all-but assured January runoff; two other Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, take 11% and 5%, respectively. This sample also finds Joe Biden ahead 49-46.
The memo also includes data from an unreleased early July survey to reinforce its case that Warnock, who began running ads a month ago, has been gaining ground. That poll found Collins in the lead with 26%, while Loeffler outpaced Lieberman 21-19. Warnock was in fourth with just 16%, while Tarver was at 9%.
We also have a separate new survey from the British firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies, but while it has the top four candidates in the same order as GBAO's latest (Tarver is not mentioned in the writeup), it finds a tighter race to reach the runoff. Loeffler is in first with 26%, while Warnock leads Collins 21-19 for the crucial second-place spot, and Lieberman isn't too far behind with 15%. But unlike GBAO's survey, this poll finds Donald Trump ahead 46-45.
Loeffler, meanwhile, is out with another commercial in which she seeks to burnish her right-wing credentials, but this time, she does so by favorably comparing herself to that icon of modern conservatism, Attila the Hun. Reporter Ben Jacobs may have put it best when he tweeted, "Comparing yourself favorably to a pagan warlord best known for ravaging Western Christendom seems like a bold move."
The spot begins ordinarily enough, with a woman telling the guy who's presumably her husband, "Did you know Kelly Loeffler was ranked the most conservative senator in America?" Hubby replies, "Yep, she's more conservative than Attila the Hun." The scene then shifts to a throne room as a seated Attila growls in what we're guessing is supposed to be Hunnish at a servant, who translates his command as, "Fight China, got it." (Attila did not fight China.)
Attila's minion continues to interpret his boss's grunted to-do list. Next up: "Attack big government," which is an interesting way to describe Attila butchering thousands and nearly bringing the Western Roman Empire to its knees. Attila issues one more command, which the translator reads out as, "Eliminate the liberal scribes … uh oh." But just in case the audience is meant to think that even Loeffler thinks this casual joke about mass murder is going too far, an unseen narrator jumps in, "More conservative than Attila the Hun. Kelly Loeffler, 100% Trump voting record."
Needless to say, the ad has left many viewers incredulous, including Collins. His spokesperson jabbed, "Kelly thinks conservatives are grunting, filthy, mass-murdering open borders atheist polygamists. She lives in a seriously warped palace with an odd view of the peasants."
● ME-Sen: Democrat Sara Gideon launched a TV commercial over the weekend focused on Donald Trump's judicial nominees. The spot does not mention the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and instead consists of footage from January in which a voter tells Gideon about her concern for the judiciary, and not only the highest court.
Gideon responds, "The United States Senate under Mitch McConnell's control is virtually just rubber-stamping almost every one of Trump's judicial nominees. They're going to affect us, and our children, and our grandchildren." The Democrat concludes, "We have to change the people who make him majority leader. That includes Sen. Susan Collins."
● Polls:
- GA-Sen-A: Redfield & Wilton Strategies: David Perdue (R-inc): 43, Jon Ossoff (D): 43 (46-45 Trump)
- IA-Sen: Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register: Theresa Greenfield (D): 45, Joni Ernst (R): 42 (June: 46-43 Greenfield)
- ME-Sen: Suffolk University for the Boston Globe: Sara Gideon (D): 46. Susan Collins (R-inc): 41, Lisa Savage (I): 4, Max Linn (I): 2 (51-39 Biden)
- MN-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Tina Smith (D-inc): 51, Jason Lewis (R): 36 (51-42 Biden)
- MS-Sen: Tyson Group for the Consumer Energy Alliance: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-inc): 41, Mike Espy (D): 40 (50-40 Trump)
- MT-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Steve Daines (R-Inc): 45, Steve Bullock (D): 44 (49-42 Trump)
- TX-Sen: Tyson Group for the Consumer Energy Alliance: John Cornyn (R-inc): 44, MJ Hegar (D): 42 (48-44 Biden)
- TX-Sen: YouGov for CBS: John Cornyn (R-inc): 46, Hegar (D): 41 (48-46 Trump) (Aug.: 44-37 Cornyn)
IA-Sen: Selzer's previous poll was taken in the days following Democrat Theresa Greenfield's early June primary win, a time when Republicans had not yet spent much attacking her. Yet even though the GOP has spent millions blitzing Greenfield, Selzer finds her margin over Republican Sen. Joni Ernst unchanged.
ME-Sen: Suffolk also simulated Maine's instant-runoff process and finds Democrat Sara Gideon expands her edge over Republican Sen. Susan Collins to 49-42 after the two independents are eliminated from consideration.
MS-Sen: The Tyson Group, a GOP pollster, says that an unreleased March survey found Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith ahead 54-28, which is a massive shift from the tight race it shows now. The only other poll we've seen over the last few months was an August internal for Espy from Garin-Hart-Yang that had him down 47-42. No major outside groups have aired any outside ads here, though, so for now at least, neither side is acting like this race is close.
One possible caveat: Many of this poll's questions were about energy issues, including whether respondents believe that "we have the technological ability to explore for and produce natural gas and oil from offshore areas in a safe and environmentally responsible way." The memo lists the energy questions before the horserace results, though it's not clear in what order the questions were asked.
Media Matters described the survey's sponsor, the Consumer Energy Alliance, in 2015 as "an energy industry front group" that "has received over $400,000 from the American Petroleum Institute and has been affiliated with fossil fuel giants including BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Marathon Oil, Shell, Peabody Energy, and more."
MT-Sen: The New York Times' Nate Cohn writes that the Siena poll mistakenly included Green Party candidates as a choice for all the Montana races even though the party's nominees will not be on the ballot following a legal challenge. Cohn says that the pollster successfully re-interviewed 10 of the 19 respondents who said they'd back the Green candidate in the Senate race and found five going for Democrat Steve Bullock, four for Republican Sen. Steve Daines, and the final one undecided.
There have been very few other recent polls of this race. The only other numbers we've seen from a reputable firm (or in this case, firms) in the last two months came in a joint survey in early September for the AARP from the Democratic pollster Hart Research and the Republican group Fabrizio Ward that found Daines up 50-47. That sample also showed Trump ahead 50-43, which is the same margin Siena finds now.
Gubernatorial
● IN-Gov: Democrat Woody Myers earned an endorsement Friday from state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, a Republican whose relationship with her own party has been disastrous for some time. McCormick, who has feuded with Republicans in the legislature over her desire to increase scrutiny of charter schools, has backed a number of other Democratic candidates this year, including attorney general nominee Jonathan Weinzapfel, prompting the state GOP to remove her name from its online list of Republican elected officials.
● VA-Gov: Republican state Sen. Emmett Hanger told the Richmond Times-Dispatch Sunday that he was considering a run for governor next year.
Hanger has a reputation as a moderate, and he's come into conflict with the party base numerous times during his nearly quarter century in the state Senate. In 2007, anti-tax fanatic Grover Norquist dubbed him one of the legislators "least wanted" in the state capitol for his support for then-Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's tax increases. Despite Norquist's opposition, though, Hanger turned back a primary challenge 53-47.
Hanger continued to clash with conservatives over the next decade, however. His detractors were furious after he voted to expand Medicaid in 2018, and he once again found himself in a tough primary the following year. However, Hanger won renomination 58-42 against Tina Freitas, whose husband, Del. Nick Freitas, is now Team Red's nominee for the 7th Congressional District.
Hanger acknowledged on Sunday that winning Team Red's gubernatorial nod would be "a high hurdle for me," but he argued he'd be a strong general election candidate in a place where Republicans haven't won a statewide contest in over a decade.
● Polls:
- MO-Gov: Remington Research (R) for Missouri Scout: Mike Parson (R-inc): 52, Nicole Galloway (D): 43 (53-45 Trump) (Aug.: 50-43 Parson)
- MT-Gov: Siena for the New York Times: Greg Gianforte (R): 45, Mike Cooney (D): 39 (49-42 Trump)
- WV-Gov: Mark Blankenship Enterprises (R) for Jim Justice: Jim Justice (R-inc): 54, Ben Salango (D): 27
MT-Gov: We've seen just one other poll from a reputable firm in the last two months: In late August, Democrat Mike Cooney released an internal from GSG that found him down by a narrow 47-46.
WV-Gov: This is the very first survey that has been made public of West Virginia's gubernatorial race. We've only occasionally seen data from Mark Blankenship Enterprises, a Republican firm, in past years, though Steven Allen Adams, who reported this survey in the Parkersburg News and Sentinel, writes that the firm "has a good reputation for accurate polls."
House
● AK-AL, AK-Sen: Ballots will go out to Alaska voters without including candidates' party affiliations after the state Supreme Court declined to overrule a lower court judge who determined that the state could proceed with its current ballot design.
Superior Court Judge Jennifer Henderson had ruled on Friday that while independent Alyse Galvin, who is registered as "nonpartisan," would be harmed by election officials' last-minute decision to drop a designation of "(N)" next to her name, it would cause greater harm to the state to order it to print new ballots. On appeal, the Supreme Court held that Henderson had not abused her discretion in ruling as she did.
The outcome is precisely what Galvin warned of in her suit, in which she charged that elections director Gail Fenumiai, an appointee of Republican Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer, waited until the last minute to alter the ballots in order to "avoid a court challenge" because the deadline to mail ballots to overseas and military voters was on Saturday. By delaying, it appears that Fenumiai managed to do exactly that.
As a result, ballots will only identify Galvin, as well as Senate hopeful Al Gross and several independent candidates for the legislature, as the "Democratic Nominee." (All won the Democratic nomination last month in their respective races under a 2018 Supreme Court ruling that allowed the Democratic Party to open its primaries to independents.) That could harm Galvin's chances of winning over voters who are more comfortable supporting unaffiliated candidates rather than Democrats, which could loom large in a close contest.
● OH-10: Democrat Desiree Tims is out with a new commercial centered on a recent Politico story reporting that Republican Rep. Mike Turner had spent $70,000 in campaign cash on meals. The narrator declares that Turner is able to do this "thanks to wealthy campaign donors who subsidize his lavish outings in Miami, Vegas, New York, London, Brussels." She continues, "While we struggle through COVID, Mike Turner's lavish lifestyle shows how out-of-touch he really is."
● TX-25: Democrat Julie Oliver uses her first general election spot to talk about her son's healthcare struggles. She tells the audience, "It wasn't until I got into healthcare financing that I realized how broken the system is, and my son, who I've affectionately called 'the walking pre-existing condition.'"
Oliver continues, "He's had health issues since he was five years old, and you know, that's a reality for hundreds of thousands of people. He looked at me and he said, 'Mom, so you're telling me that they can deny me insurance because of what I grew up with?" She concludes, "Not if I'm elected, honey."
● Polls:
- CA-21: American Viewpoint (R) for the Congressional Leadership Fund: David Valadao (R): 49, TJ Cox (D-inc): 38
- FL-18: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics: Brian Mast (R-inc): 50, Pam Keith (D): 42 (49-48 Biden)
- IL-03: Ogden & Fry (R) for the Cook County Republican Party: Marie Newman (D): 46, Mike Fricilone (R): 44 (48-40 Biden)
- MT-AL: Siena for the New York Times: Kathleen Williams (D): 44, Matt Rosendale (R): 41 (49-42 Trump)
- NE-02: GSG (D) for House Majority PAC: Don Bacon (R-inc): 45, Kara Eastman (D): 45 (51-45 Biden)
- PA-01: American Viewpoint (R) for Congressional Leadership Fund: Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 52, Christina Finello (D): 36 (July: 50-35 Fitzpatrick)
CA-21: This is the first poll we've seen of the rematch between freshman Democratic Rep. TJ Cox and Republican David Valadao; last cycle, Cox defied the polls and denied Valadao a fourth term 50-4.-49.6. Unsurprisingly, the release did not include presidential numbers for this Central Valley district, which backed Hillary Clinton 55-40.
FL-18: This is also the first poll we've seen of the contest for this South Florida district, which went for Donald Trump by a 53-44 margin four years ago. Republican Rep. Brian Mast has looked safe here all cycle, though his decision to run negative ads against Democrat Pam Keith weeks ago was a sign that he might not be completely secure.
IL-03: This Chicago-area seat has attracted little attention since March, when Democrat Marie Newman defeated conservative incumbent Dan Lipinski for renomination. Republican Mike Fricilone ended June with just over $6,000 (not a typo) in the bank, and until now, no one has acted like the general election for this 55-40 Clinton district will be at all competitive.
The GOP's release mostly focused on the contest for Cook County state's attorney, and it did something quite misleading. The memo declared that the survey "has Republican Pat O'Brien edging Kim Foxx in the Cook County State's Attorney Race," and as Capitol Fax's Rich Miller notes, "At first or even second or possibly third glance, you might think that these Foxx/O'Brien poll results are countywide…" However, the 3rd District only makes up about 12% of Cook County and also includes voters in two other counties who won't be able to vote in the Foxx-O'Brien race.
MT-AL: This is the first independent survey we've seen here in the last two months, though we've gotten one internal poll from each side during that time. In mid-August, Republican Matt Rosendale's allies at the Club for Growth dropped a survey from WPA Intelligence that had him up 51-45, though that release didn't include presidential numbers. In early September, House Majority PAC responded with an Expedition Strategies poll that had Democrat Kathleen Williams up 51-48, while Trump led 48-44.
NE-02: The memo says that an unreleased July poll had Republican Rep. Don Bacon up 47-42, while Joe Biden had a 51-44 edge. The last poll we saw of this contest was an early July poll for Democrat Kara Eastman from GQR that gave her a 50-49 edge.
PA-01: While two Democratic polls taken in June had Democrat Christina Finello tied or narrowly leading Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, Team Red has enjoyed far more favorable numbers since then. A Public Opinion Strategies survey for Fitzpatrick in mid-July had him up 53-39 even as Biden took this suburban Philadelphia seat 51-42 (Clinton carried it 49-47 four years ago).
CLF soon released its first poll from American Viewpoint which, like this newer one, did not include presidential numbers. In mid-August, the Democratic pollster DFM Research put out numbers for the transportation workers union SMART as part of its survey on rail issues that had Fitzpatrick up 47-35, while Biden led 52-43.
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