Civiqs poll: Warnock surges to Georgia Senate special election lead, Dems all looking good

kos

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday September 29, 2020 · 12:18 PM PDT

2020/09/29 · 12:18

WASHINGTON - OCTOBER 16: Rev. Raphael Warnock delivers a benediction during a dedication ceremony at the Martin Luther King Memorial on the National Mall October 16, 2011 in Washington, DC. President Barack Obama, entertainers, civil rights leaders and others attend the ceremony to formally dedicate the memorial to the civil rights leader Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King who was assassinated in 1968. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images) — Raphael Warnock takes a strong lead in Georgia's Senate special election.

Georgia is the ultimate battleground this November: a hot presidential race, two Senate races, and several House battlegrounds. One of the fears has been that the Senate special election, a “jungle primary” with all candidates from all parties on one ballot, would produce two Republicans for the runoff election, with too many Democrats splitting the vote. Well, worry not. Democrats lead in this race, as well as all the other statewide battles.

Civiqs polled Georgia September 26-29, with trend lines from mid-May.

President	9/2020	5/2020
Joe Biden (D)	50	48
Donald Trump (R-inc)	47	47

Looking good.

Senate-A	9/2020	5/2020
Jon Ossoff (D)	48	47
David Perdue (R-Inc)	46	45
Shane Hazel (L)	3	n/a

This is the regular Senate election. The race remains a 2-point spread, but Ossoff is inching closer to 50%. This is critical, because Georgia mandates a January runoff if no candidate reaches 50% (a racist Jim Crow law designed specifically to prevent Black candidates from being elected).

While Democrats have suffered in previous-year runoffs, I doubt that’s the case this year. Liberals have finally figured out how to stay engaged and active for traditionally low-turnout, weirdly timed elections (like the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year). Still, if we can get Ossoff to 50%, where Joe Biden currently sits, it would be much better to win this outright.

Incidentally, Quinnipiac released its own Georgia poll today. They have Biden leading 50-47, and Ossoff ahead 49-48. So we’re all in the same ballpark.

Senate-B (special election)	9/2020	5/2020
Raphael Warnock (D)	38	18
Doug Collins (R)	25	34
Kelly Loeffler (R-inc)	21	12
Matt Lieberman (D)	5	14
Ed Tarver (D)	2	6
Unsure	7	12
Someone else	1	4

Remember, this is a jungle primary. There are like 22 candidates on this ballot. The top two move on to a January runoff unless someone reaches 50%. So far, that doesn’t look even close to happening, though the biggest fear before today—that the idiotic Matt Lieberman would pull enough support to split Democrats into missing the runoff—is clearly no longer operative. He’s sunk like a rock.

Interestingly, add up the three top Democratic vote-getters, and they get 45%. Add up the top two Republicans, and they get 46%. Georgia is legit a battleground! But in the same vein, imagine if all Democrats consolidated around Warnock … he could make a bid for 50% himself!

Still, that’s unlikely. So we also looked at what the runoff might look like:

Georgia-B runoff	9/2020	5/2020
Raphael Warnock (D)	49	46
Kelly Loeffler (R-inc)	39	32

Raphael Warnock (D)	49	45
Doug collins (R)	44	44

Thank heavens Warnock is winning! Lieberman isn’t just a shitty human being who’s as bad as his father Joe, but he fares terribly against the top two Republicans in a potential runoff. It’s 39-39 in a Lieberman-Loeffler matchup, while Collins leads him 44-38.

Bottom line? Democrats need to crush it in Georgia. The presidential electoral votes would be nice, but two Senate seats held by two awesome progressives would dramatically improve our ability to get shit done in the Senate. These opportunities don’t come by every day. We need to take full advantage of them.

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