Since 2016 feels like several lifetimes ago, and in view of the frequent criticism that the polls were off that year, I thought I’d go back and check what the aggregators were saying that year. Turns out it’s easy to get that information. Here is what 538 and Real Clear Politics were saying:
538's 2016 prediction
Real Clear politics in 2016
I’ll let you guys look at the sites yourselves rather than try to summarize. And I’m certainly not in any position to offer any real analysis as to how 2020 and 2016 are similar/different. Among other things, pollsters today claim that they have made corrections since 2016 (and presumably that’s a process they undertake continually). And it’s hard, when looking back at the polls/predictions from 2016, to remember all of the significant, potentially poll-moving events (like conventions, debates, Comey’s declarations, etc).
Still, both of these websites allows you to examine the polls (and predictions) at various times during the 2016 campaign. So just for some perspective, I’ll note the following predictions from 538:
On September 4, 538’s prediction (about likelihood of winning) was:
Clinton: 69.1%
Trump: 30.9%
And 538’s final prediction was:
Clinton: 71.8%
Trump: 28.2%
Lastly, I’ll remark that I am not intending this post as a comment about either of the websites, let alone pollsters generally. I’m not even suggesting any particular take-away. I’m merely posting this for anyone who might also find themselves trying to recall what actually was happening way back in 2016.