Alaska is shrinking.
Oh, we are still the largest state by a wide margin. Our population, however, is shrinking year after year. There are more caribou than people here.
Alaska’s population dropped by nearly 4,000 people — half a percent — last year, according to estimates released from the state on Thursday.
It’s the fourth straight year of declines, and the biggest drop since 1988. The estimate covers the period between July 2019 to July 2020.
Even though 5,000 more Alaskans were born than the number of those who died, the net decline came from people moving away. Nearly 9,000 more people left the state than moved in. Alaska lost roughly 46,000 jobs during this time.
Alaska’s estimated population was 728,903 in July, down from 740,637 four years earlier.
What does this mean politically? It means the state that is closest from flipping from red to blue is getting emptier, and each voter here is getting more valuable. Why don’t we hear much about Alaska flipping to blue? Maybe because Biden lost by 10 points. Conventional wisdom sees that 10 point gap and declares this is a red state to mostly ignore. Here’s the thing though: 10 points in Alaska was only 36,000 votes.
More conventional wisdom: the way to get more votes is via persuasion and turnout. Both are necessary, but are they sufficient? We are already working hard on both those approaches. Improvement can help but we desperately need every edge we can get.
Republicans have decided their best chance of getting an edge is voter suppression. It’s anti-democracy to it’s core. It’s no holds barred political war that has been fine-tuned to deliver wins.
Democrats, being morally opposed to such actions, will not try to prevent Republicans from voting. We do have one more tool in the toolbox though, and it’s a powerful one. It’s legal, it’s moral, and it can’t be filibustered or gerrymandered. It’s called MOVING.
Republicans don’t have any special claim to these low population states with their sweet, sweet Senators. They just moved here. As in, packed stuff into a Uhaul and drove over the state line. 59% of Alaskans were not born here. Come on up- all those Republicans did.
If you are a progressive voter thinking about how to maximize your impact, considering moving up here (and bring all your friends while you are at it!)
Is there room for you and all your friends up here?
Are you kidding? It’s amusing to shop for multi-thousand acre parcels up here just to see how possible it would be to plant entire towns in empty places. One or two medium sized villages of progressives could flip the state, flip the Senate, and be a real chance to save our climate.
Come on up, the water is… cold. ;)
Looking forward a bit
Alaska loses population because older people move somewhere warm, and young people are having fewer kids. The oil boom is fading, and those workers leave for Texas. Eco tourism is growing. This adds up to demographic shifts that could move the state left another notch. Four years from now, maybe that 30k gap has shrunk to 20k or even less. At some point, this is just not very many people. I’ve been to political marches with literally 10 times that many people! That massive march accomplished nothing in the end, not a damn thing.
Realism
What would convince 20,000 people to move here? The belief that physically occupying an additional state is a required political and ecological strategy. The belief that controlling Alaska is necessary to save our climate and ourselves. Belief, plus the resources to make the move and the courage to leave the comforts of the familiar.
Are there jobs in Alaska? YES.
Is it cold here? YES, for half the year. It’s also beautiful for the entire year.
Who can make a leap like this? Young people without families and homes have it easiest. People who can work remotely can certainly succeed. People with resources to call on, who can afford to make this a priority. People who like camping and rivers and mountain bike trails. People who want to see the aurora borealis and the midnight sun. (oops, now I’m dreaming again, this was supposed to be the realism section.)
Why is Alaska so empty?
It’s not an easy place to live. It’s cold and dark in the winter. It’s got a small country called Canada between itself and “Outside”. The economy is very blue collar and has had tough times occasionally. Food and household goods are expensive. Heat and electricity are expensive. Housing prices have been mostly flat for a decade which helps a bit- possibly related to the slow population decline. Alaska can be an isolating place to live, but technology is reducing this isolation.
Is it actually necessary to Occupy Alaska?
You tell me. Is there a path to controlling the Senate without two Democratic Senators from Alaska? Possibly. Is this a chance we can afford to take, hoping that Florida or Maine comes to its senses? That we hold every other state we have? I’d say we can’t afford to take any more chances. The climate situation is a full blown emergency. Asking if it is necessary to Occupy Alaska is like a fire truck wondering if it’s really necessary to turn on the third hose when there is a chance the first two hoses might be enough. NO- you turn on every hose because it’s an emergency and the house is on fire.
It it possible we can convince 20,000 Republicans up here to change their belief system and to start voting to save the environment? Or would it be easier for 20,001 Democrats to just move here? (That’s a rhetorical question to me, but feel free to argue otherwise).
Occupying Alaska might be necessary to win this political war, thus we must do so. It will be necessary to save our environment.
Three of the most important fights to save our ecology are happening here and we are outnumbered: Pebble Mine, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and the Tongass National Forest. I believe these will only be saved if Alaskans want to save them. The current set of Alaskans votes to cut the trees down and drill for oil. NOTE: these are mainly people who moved here because they want to tear apart the earth. If nobody who wants to save the planet moves here, we will lose this fight. We are outnumbered on the ground and in the voting booth, but only by a few thousand people. This is a special place, and it’s going to take some special people to save it.
Dreaming
I would dearly love to see young people take up this cause. I think they are the ones who could turn the tide here fast enough to matter. There are 4 million college graduates each year. If even 1% of a single graduating class moved to Alaska intent on saving the climate, this would instantly be a blue state- the biggest one by far. 663,000 square miles of blue state protecting its trees, waters, and wildlife.
Do you know a young person thinking about their next step? Are you part of a climate organization that wants to figure out a winning national strategy? Are you a George Soros drone who can be ordered to move north by Greta Thunberg? Any of those work!
I’d like to know if anyone else out there considers this a viable strategy, and if so what steps could get things underway.