The House of Representatives will vote Tuesday evening to tell Vice President Pence to "convene and mobilize the principal officers of the executive departments of the Cabinet to activate section 4 of the 25th Amendment to declare President Donald J. Trump incapable of executing the duties of his office and to immediately exercise powers as acting President." Knowing that Pence will not do so, they will vote on Wednesday at 9 AM ET to charge Trump with "inciting violence against the government of the United States" and will impeach him.
They could be joined by some Republicans. Republican leadership is not whipping votes against it. Members will be advised to "vote their conscience." Which is a strange thing to assume 139 of them who voted to throw out the results of a free and fair election, including leaders Kevin McCarthy and Steve Scalise, even have. There will be a single impeachment article for "incitement of insurrection."
"In all this, President Trump gravely endangered the security of the United States and its institutions of Government," the resolution says. "He threatened the integrity of the democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of Government. He thereby betrayed his trust as President, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States." Trump, as always, remains belligerent and defiant and again threatened his opponents with further violence. "For Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to continue on this path, I think it's causing tremendous danger to our county and it's causing tremendous anger. I want no violence," he told reporters Tuesday.
That of course will not stop the process. But what happens on the Senate side remains uncertain because it's absolutely unprecedented. Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, importantly, has advised Democratic senators that impeachment hearings are going to happen and to not even discuss censure as a possible alternative. They are exploring ways of moving forward. One includes an obscure emergency authority that would allow him and current Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to end the recess, which is now set to end on January 19, and reconvene immediately after the House transmits the articles of impeachment. That requires McConnell's cooperation and thus far no one in his office is answering calls from reporters, so no one knows whether this is really an option.
Another option Democrats are exploring is moving forward on parallel tracks, by referring the impeachment to the Senate Judiciary Committee for hearings and bypassing the floor for long enough to get critical nominations through. Another option is appointing a commission to investigate and produce a report the full Senate would then act on. Another possibility Biden has raised, that is potentially possible, according to experts the Washington Post's Greg Sargent talked to is "[a] half-day on dealing with impeachment, and [a] half-day getting my people nominated and confirmed," in Biden's words.
Scholar Norman Ornstein told Sargent that the the Constitution allows the Senate to set its own rules and procedures on impeachment, "So in theory it is possible to move forward with other actions even as they’re doing a trial." Adam Jentelson, a former senior adviser to Harry Reid and all around Senate procedural wonk, agrees. "The Senate can conduct this trial however it wants, so the bifurcation path is entirely doable,. […] Procedurally, it's basically a matter of conducting a two-track approach." It could, however, require unanimous consent giving the insurrectionists in the Senate a chance to make mischief.
Trump won't leave voluntarily. Pence won't force the issue. McConnell "ignored Trump's calls before Wednesday’s siege and now has no plans to call him back, according to one official," so he too is refusing to fulfill his oath and obligation to protect the country. The next week is going to be as fraught as the last, because the entire Republican Party sold its soul to Donald Trump five years ago, and sold out the country in the process.