This is it folks, the last update before the polls close tonight. I’ve deleted the mail ballot requests number as no one is requesting ballots anymore. What I will talk about is mail returns and the in person early votes.
Mail ballot Returns:
1. 1,018,381 ballots have been returned compared to 1,320,154 for the General
2. Percentage wise, that means the runoff is at 77.14% (4.5% increase from the last posting) of the returns compared to the General.
3. Of the 1,018,381 ballot returns, 635,271 are from Biden counties (43K increase since the last posting), and 383,110 are from Trump counties (18K increase since the last posting).
4. In the general, out of the 1,320,154 returns, 823,960 came from Biden counties and 496,194 came from trump counties.
5. That means, Biden counties are currently returning 77.10% of the ballots (5.2% increase since the last posting) when compared to the 2020 general and Trump counties are returning 77.21% (3.6% increase since the last posting). This is the first time they have been this close to parity since the first day.
6. Overall, for the runoff, Biden counties have returned 62.38% of all mail ballots (.5% increase since the last posting) and Trump counties have returned 37.62% (.5% decrease since the last posting). In the General, this % was 62.41% for Biden counties and 37.59% for Trump counties.
7. Raw numbers wise; Democratic counties currently have a 252,161 mail return edge (25K increase since the last posting) on GOP counties out of 1,018,381 ballot returns. In the General, Democratic counties had a 327,766 edge on GOP counties out of 1,320,514 ballot returns.
If you use the margins Biden got in the general, Dems have a 305K vote lead on mail ballot returns (increase of 22K).
There’s between 236-355K ballots left to return. The range is due to ballots potentially being returned at polling places. If these ballots were all returned, it would net between 77K to 120K democratic votes.
In Person Early Votes
1. 2,074,993 votes have been tabulated compared to 2,694,763 for the General
2. Percentage wise, that means the runoff finishes at 77% of the votes compared to the General.
3. Of the 2,074,993 votes, 1,117,795 are from Biden counties and 957,198 are from Trump counties.
4. In the general, out of the 2,694,763 votes, 1,373,128 came from Biden counties and 1,321,635 came from trump counties.
5. That means, Biden counties finish at 81.01% of votes when compared to the 2020 general and Trump counties finish at 72.79% of votes.
6. Overall, for the runoff, Biden counties finish at 53.87% of all early in person votes and Trump counties finish at 46.13% of all early in person votes. In the General, this % was 50.96% for Biden counties and 49.04% for Trump counties.
7. Raw numbers wise; Democratic counties finish with a 160,597 vote edge on GOP counties out of 2,074,993 early in person votes. In the General, Democratic counties had a 51,493 edge on GOP counties out of 2,694,763 ballot returns.
If you use the margins Biden got in the general, Republicans have a 63,764 vote lead for in person early votes
Total early vote comparison
Currently, we are at 77.03% of the general election early vote.
Total early vote of runoff compared to early vote of general election
Couny |
total early vote |
total early vote GE |
percent |
RANDOLPH |
2109 |
2343 |
90.01% |
WARREN |
1895 |
2151 |
88.10% |
SPALDING |
18561 |
21423 |
86.64% |
NEWTON |
31340 |
36373 |
86.16% |
CALHOUN |
1344 |
1562 |
86.04% |
DEKALB |
275470 |
320215 |
86.03% |
TERRELL |
2729 |
3173 |
86.01% |
HANCOCK |
2800 |
3259 |
85.92% |
CLAYTON |
78173 |
91265 |
85.65% |
GREENE |
8388 |
9811 |
85.50% |
MACON |
3084 |
3613 |
85.36% |
SUMTER |
7942 |
9496 |
83.64% |
STEWART |
1211 |
1454 |
83.29% |
QUITMAN |
650 |
781 |
83.23% |
UNION |
9835 |
11859 |
82.93% |
RABUN |
6761 |
8163 |
82.82% |
HOUSTON |
46466 |
56402 |
82.38% |
DOUGLAS |
47566 |
58031 |
81.97% |
TOWNS |
5614 |
6854 |
81.91% |
JENKINS |
2101 |
2567 |
81.85% |
MORGAN |
7613 |
9308 |
81.79% |
PUTNAM |
8038 |
9828 |
81.79% |
OCONEE |
17742 |
21738 |
81.62% |
BALDWIN |
12063 |
14792 |
81.55% |
TALBOT |
2037 |
2499 |
81.51% |
DOUGHERTY |
18992 |
23386 |
81.21% |
WASHINGTON |
5531 |
6820 |
81.10% |
WILKES |
3076 |
3795 |
81.05% |
FULTON |
374324 |
462174 |
80.99% |
WHITE |
8756 |
10822 |
80.91% |
MCINTOSH |
4368 |
5405 |
80.81% |
ROCKDALE |
31123 |
38532 |
80.77% |
TURNER |
2481 |
3076 |
80.66% |
TALIAFERRO |
582 |
723 |
80.50% |
LINCOLN |
2763 |
3462 |
79.81% |
PULASKI |
2797 |
3527 |
79.30% |
BAKER |
881 |
1112 |
79.23% |
RICHMOND |
52358 |
66164 |
79.13% |
FANNIN |
8110 |
10251 |
79.11% |
SCREVEN |
3739 |
4734 |
78.98% |
GLYNN |
27651 |
35014 |
78.97% |
HARRIS |
10293 |
13049 |
78.88% |
GILMER |
9165 |
11632 |
78.79% |
DOOLY |
2475 |
3145 |
78.70% |
HABERSHAM |
13536 |
17214 |
78.63% |
OGELTHORPE |
5215 |
6635 |
78.60% |
DODGE |
4047 |
5151 |
78.57% |
MARION |
2074 |
2640 |
78.56% |
CRISP |
5082 |
6471 |
78.54% |
MUSCOGEE |
53029 |
67557 |
78.50% |
TELFAIR |
2387 |
3044 |
78.42% |
MERIWETHER |
5832 |
7441 |
78.38% |
GWINNET |
267233 |
341211 |
78.32% |
FAYETTE |
48478 |
61908 |
78.31% |
EVANS |
2761 |
3532 |
78.17% |
THOMAS |
13764 |
17615 |
78.14% |
WEBSTER |
867 |
1110 |
78.11% |
MILLER |
1658 |
2123 |
78.10% |
CLARKE |
33101 |
42398 |
78.07% |
JEFFERSON |
4244 |
5442 |
77.99% |
DAWSON |
10444 |
13450 |
77.65% |
JASPER |
4454 |
5747 |
77.50% |
COLUMBIA |
47781 |
61785 |
77.33% |
LIBERTY |
13825 |
17877 |
77.33% |
WILKINSON |
2262 |
2927 |
77.28% |
TIFT |
9556 |
12369 |
77.26% |
BLECKLEY |
3438 |
4453 |
77.21% |
LUMPKIN |
10150 |
13159 |
77.13% |
TROUP |
17241 |
22382 |
77.03% |
COOK |
4128 |
5361 |
77.00% |
MADISON |
8182 |
10628 |
76.99% |
CLAY |
872 |
1135 |
76.83% |
SCHLEY |
1462 |
1904 |
76.79% |
MCDUFIE |
6897 |
8986 |
76.75% |
MITCHELL |
5052 |
6589 |
76.67% |
EMMANUEL |
4680 |
6110 |
76.60% |
BACON |
3129 |
4090 |
76.50% |
WORTH |
4519 |
5908 |
76.49% |
TWIGGS |
2413 |
3162 |
76.31% |
TOOMBS |
6485 |
8504 |
76.26% |
BIBB |
40851 |
53640 |
76.16% |
MONROE |
9262 |
12162 |
76.16% |
TREUTLEN |
1923 |
2526 |
76.13% |
EARLY |
2827 |
3738 |
75.63% |
BEN HILL |
4366 |
5774 |
75.61% |
CHATHAM |
72732 |
96210 |
75.60% |
LAURENS |
11421 |
15116 |
75.56% |
COFFEE |
8648 |
11474 |
75.37% |
BRYAN |
13412 |
17826 |
75.24% |
CRAWFORD |
3512 |
4669 |
75.22% |
WALTON |
29666 |
39548 |
75.01% |
JOHNSON |
2332 |
3113 |
74.91% |
BROOKS |
3835 |
5122 |
74.87% |
CANDLER |
2831 |
3782 |
74.85% |
STEPHENS |
7705 |
10321 |
74.65% |
HENRY |
79109 |
106149 |
74.53% |
IRWIN |
2431 |
3264 |
74.48% |
ELBERT |
5044 |
6774 |
74.46% |
DADE |
3813 |
5132 |
74.30% |
PEACH |
7965 |
10740 |
74.16% |
CLINCH |
1481 |
2002 |
73.98% |
LEE |
9390 |
12707 |
73.90% |
COWETA |
39019 |
52836 |
73.85% |
HART |
7240 |
9809 |
73.81% |
LOWNDES |
27627 |
37439 |
73.79% |
POLK |
10231 |
13875 |
73.74% |
SEMINOLE |
1941 |
2633 |
73.72% |
GLASCOCK |
827 |
1122 |
73.71% |
CHATTAHOCHEE |
821 |
1115 |
73.63% |
FORSYTH |
85244 |
115924 |
73.53% |
EFFINGHAM |
16337 |
22240 |
73.46% |
JEFF DAVIS |
3004 |
4092 |
73.41% |
BULLOCH |
15279 |
20828 |
73.36% |
COLQUITT |
7809 |
10661 |
73.25% |
MONTGOMERY |
1900 |
2595 |
73.22% |
HEARD |
2597 |
3548 |
73.20% |
PAULDING |
52124 |
71573 |
72.83% |
GRADY |
5828 |
8022 |
72.65% |
COBB |
235397 |
324055 |
72.64% |
BUTTS |
7654 |
10561 |
72.47% |
WHEELER |
1180 |
1634 |
72.22% |
TATTNAL |
4474 |
6208 |
72.07% |
CHARLTON |
2291 |
3189 |
71.84% |
TAYLOR |
2287 |
3190 |
71.69% |
UPSON |
7794 |
10878 |
71.65% |
PIKE |
5758 |
8063 |
71.41% |
APPLING |
4488 |
6295 |
71.29% |
DECATUR |
6666 |
9352 |
71.28% |
GORDON |
11357 |
15943 |
71.24% |
BARROW |
21427 |
30132 |
71.11% |
LANIER |
2047 |
2883 |
71.00% |
WILCOX |
1586 |
2245 |
70.65% |
BERRIEN |
3909 |
5552 |
70.41% |
PIERCE |
5427 |
7710 |
70.39% |
BANKS |
4911 |
6983 |
70.33% |
BARTOW |
26569 |
37829 |
70.23% |
WAYNE |
6856 |
9800 |
69.96% |
HALL |
52625 |
75298 |
69.89% |
CATOOSA |
18352 |
26271 |
69.86% |
JACKSON |
22009 |
31536 |
69.79% |
WARE |
7665 |
10987 |
69.76% |
WHITFIELD |
17209 |
24769 |
69.48% |
PICKENS |
7150 |
10308 |
69.36% |
LAMAR |
4706 |
6787 |
69.34% |
JONES |
7665 |
11086 |
69.14% |
HARALSON |
6573 |
9508 |
69.13% |
BRANTLEY |
3849 |
5575 |
69.04% |
FLOYD |
21500 |
31146 |
69.03% |
MURRAY |
7512 |
10933 |
68.71% |
CHATTOOGA |
4918 |
7178 |
68.51% |
BURKE |
4926 |
7212 |
68.30% |
CARROL |
27384 |
40114 |
68.27% |
FRANKLIN |
5485 |
8100 |
67.72% |
LONG |
2729 |
4056 |
67.28% |
ECHOLS |
790 |
1180 |
66.95% |
CAMDEN |
12527 |
18744 |
66.83% |
CHEROKEE |
75864 |
113778 |
66.68% |
ATKINSON |
1438 |
2174 |
66.15% |
WALKER |
14761 |
22677 |
65.09% |
|
I’m not going to make any predictions. All I will say is, Democrats did what they needed to do in the early vote. They kept up in the mail vote, and they cut into the margin on the early in person vote. We should also expect another 50K mail in votes to come in today, which should help Democrats.