Sometimes it is valuable to take a trip up to 10,000 feet and look at the situation. So where are we with solar+wind and what would it take to replace some or all of the coal+gas generation. I grabbed some data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and did a quick spreadsheet analysis. Please remember that this is a very simple analysis just to see approximately where we need to go for the transition. None of this includes transmission, storage, or any of the other thousand things that need to be handled. This is a view from 10,000 feet so details are not visible and we just assume that the transmission exists to move the electricity around the country.
The next chart shows a few scenarios of what we could do with the solar+wind capacity. The thick line in the graph is how much electricity was generated by coal+gas during the most recent twelve months that the EIA has data available. Then there are four scenarios for added soar+wind capacity and what percentage (net over the twelve months) of coal+gas electricity would be replaced. The thin scenario lines are from actual solar+wind generation figures for each month multiplied as shown in the legend.
So, the first line is 1x wind and 2x solar addition to the fleet. This means doubling the current wind capacity and tripling the current solar capacity and will result in a 23% replacement of coal+gas. If 2x wind and 5x solar is added then 50% of coal+gas is replaced. At 4x wind and 10x solar we replace 100% of the coal+gas generation (all on a net basis and over these twelve months). That is, to me, a very achievable number.
Now for the issues which I know will come up in the comments. To get to zero carbon we will have to add a lot of storage and transmission capacity. However, to get to 70% replacement (3x wind and 6x solar) requires a very small addition of storage. I will try to tackle the storage issue in a future article but the bulk of the storage and transmission is needed to get from 80% to 100% replacement. The financial and legal side will also be a challenge especially if the anti-renewable crowd gets back into power (assuming we can overcome the Manchin and Sinema roadblock).
The main point is that a huge reduction in carbon emissions is possible and within sight. Even getting to 68% to 80% will be a great improvement. I know we want to be totally carbon free but getting most of the way as soon as possible is very important. This is good news as the goal is closer that most people think.