As if we need news of another possible disaster this Monday morning, US Spacecom is reporting a “debris-generating event” in low orbit space. Preliminary reports suggest that the Russians used a ground based missile to conduct an anti-satellite weapons test on the defunct Kosmos-1408 satellite orbiting around 472 - 497 km altitude. The International Space Station (ISS) orbits around 400 km altitude.
Consequently, earlier today, the seven astronauts and cosmonauts living on the ISS were asked to take refuge inside their Dragon and Soyuz ferry spacecraft, ready to depart if necessary.
Statement from US Spacecom -
Confirmation of the debris from LeoLabs’ radar-based space observation stations -
There are reports that 14 pieces of debris have been identified. There are likely many more.
State Dept. confirms and condemns the ASAT test. Over 1,500 pieces are being tracked. 100’s of thousands of smaller pieces are expected.
At the ISS
Astronauts on the ISS will be on alert for the next few days as NASA studies the situation and determine the orbits of the debris field. Mission control might make some maneuvers of the ISS to get out of the debris field, which might impact the ISS every 90 minutes or so.
A tiny piece of space debris can have devastating effects -
More info about the test
This is what the 2200 kg Kosmos-1408 satellite, launched in 1982, looked like — now shattered into thousands of pieces in space -
Some more expert analysis — the debris might get flung into higher orbits, potentially affecting low-earth-orbit satellites at 500 to 550 km altitude, such as Starlink.
NOTAM = Notices to Airmen. The Russians had issued airspace restrictions around the missile launch facility at Plesetsk.
The extent of the debris field could be vast and it will take time to catalog the pieces -
Previous ASAT Tests
This is not the first time countries have “blown” up satellites in space. Weaponization of space is a real danger, with countries recklessly flouting international norms and agreements on this subject.
Just last week, the ISS had to take evasive action to avoid getting hit by a piece of debris from the defunct 750 kg Fengyun-1C weather satellite, which was destroyed in 2007 by a Chinese anti-satellite missile test. The test produced at least 2,087 pieces of debris large enough to be routinely tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and over 35,000 pieces of debris down to 1 cm in size. celestrak.com/...
The following is a visualization of a similar test conducted by India few years ago. India’s ASAT test destroyed a satellite in very low orbit at 283 km altitude and posed less of a hazard to other spacecraft.
Epilogue
Let’s hope this does not affect the thousands of new satellites flying in low orbit around 550 km altitude. Collisions there could potentially create a cascading effect leading to what is known as the Kessler Syndrome. Hopefully, the debris will slowly fall back to earth, since the pieces are at low enough orbit where atmospheric drag plays a role. But is it just a matter of time, before space becomes unusable with tens of thousands of satellites in low orbit, each capable of generating thousands of pieces of space debris? Shouldn’t the international community outright ban ASAT weapons?
What a tangled mess we have created!
Further Reading
- Space Debris, Tethers and Fishing Nets — www.dailykos.com/…
- Space debris — en.wikipedia.org/…
- Anti-satellite weapon — en.wikipedia.org/...
Updates
Some more data from LeoLabs — (large) debris pieces detected, using ground based radar, between 440 and 800 km altitude; that is a wide swath.
The Russian defense ministry finally admits to the ASAT test -