NEW JERSEY: We’ve now hit the threshold in the Garden State, and on the surface, it looks considerably better than Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy sits with a 56-43 lead with about 350,000 votes cast (or, about 10-15% of expected turnout). Meanwhile, downballot, the Dems currently lead in a couple R-held seats, but as always, it is way early, and we don’t know where the numbers will eventually land. Worth noting that in recent polling, Murphy’s lead was in the mid-to-high single digits, so it would be reasonable to expect tightening.