I stayed up all night on this piece. I don’t expect a chocolate chip cookie for it, I just could not sleep. Of course, I am as disgusted as any of you about the Virginia results but I wish to point out two things-the totals are entirely different than 2009, and there are a few key constituencies we lost ground with.
But while I will present to you a look at the raw data, I will also offer a recipe for a delicious electoral pie, and if you read on, you will see how good it could taste, if we hire the right chefs.
Terry McAuliffe was a great Governor, is a fine man, and is a solidly Democratic Democrat.
But for some reason, a dyed in the wool corporatist from a parastic private equity firm was able to convince white non college women to vote for him by almost 50 points. That is more than a 35 point gain from Trump. That tells me two things-1. They did not take to Terry McAuliffe at all, and 2. They do not feel the Democrats are communicating with them.
Or, and work with me here, 3. Imagine a Congress that delivered rather than obstructed. Imagine if we ran on a full-throated economic justice platform, and had meat to bring to the table. Imagine we went through the difficult process of reworking the platform to resurrect the New Deal completely, unapologetically, and forcefully.
No sooner than I post this will the breathless and largely clueless punditry suggest that Democrats are “crazy left” and that voters do not want such extreme policies. Well consider this, the same electorate that saw of swing of non-college white women 37 points red, was the same electorate that supports abortion rights by 20 points. We have to be honest with ourselves.
Sure we can say non-college white men are Ted Nugent listening, rebel flag waving, gun-humping, women subjugating Trumpers. We can say that. And it is largely true.
But 1/3 of the non-college white female electorate did not become frothing racists in 364 days. If we tell ourselves that we are practicing self-delusion. The facts are the facts. We are a data and science and fact oriented community. And the data shows that the number one issue was the economy, and Youngkin won that group by 12 points. That’s ballgame. Flip that and Terry wins by 5. So it was not Toni Morrison, not CRT, not masks, just the economy. The blue bleed in the suburbs backs that up. Why? Maybe voters were not buying what we were selling. Not the ones that voted. The ones that didn’t.
We know this-the recalled vote was a tie, Trump to Biden. That means the dormant recalled vote relative to 2020, and the Democratic advantages that go with it, were plus 25 points for President Biden. That does not mean those voters would have gone to Terry by 25, but it clearly shows the historical blue tilt of those that stayed home.
But they didn’t vote. Thus Terry McAuliffe did not lose non-college white women by 49 points, he lost by 49 points of those that voted. Bottom line is the GOP retained about 80 percent of its raw vote from 2020, and the Dems, close to 67.
It is unfathomable that an off-year election garnered roughly 75 percent of the raw vote of 2020.
Nevertheless if more Dems stayed home relative to Repubs, it likely wasn’t because the progressives offended them if we consider the aforementioned tilt of the non-voter. But we could have even overcome that if only..well
The tweet of the night is this-
This is from a Morning Consult poll, a data point no more, no less, but a stunning rebuke to the progressive punching crowd. None of these results are centrist favoring. We live in a country that can’t get 82 percent to agree the sky is blue. Yet here we are, with several data points showing a massive, overwhelming, veto proof majority in favor of one of the key planks of the 1960’s social safety net expansion.
If Virginia is simiarly in favor of these policies, and likely is, this means independents are wildly in favor of them too. Terry lost independents by about five points which correlates with his weakness on the economy. Even with the GOP surge, if we would have had success to sell Terry would likely have won.
Now look at the abortion issue. The pro-choice platform is like the engine of a Toyota Camry. It hasn’t changed for years, it is reliable, and voters take it for granted. It doesn’t motivate like we think it should. It does not mean we are wrong, it just means that if the electorate is telling you the most important issue is the economy, then you had better craft a message for the economy. But no, it does not mean you stop messaging women’s rights, not at all. It doesn’t mean you shove the issue to the backburner or turn the volume down.
It means that someday a smart politician will come along and explain that reproductive rights for women is a prerequisite to ensuring prosperity for women.
And also, economic justice and proper health care is a prerequisite to ensuring reproductive rights and health.
We have to work on both systemic deficiencies simultaneously and as a unit.
A woman under the control of the patriarchy probably stays in the small town. She might work part time at Dollar Tree. But a woman with control over her own body finishes college. She goes after and often gets the good job. She has the fair chance to reach the potential her talent makes her capable of.
Start getting women to view the issue of reproductive rights as linked to the economy, and I believe you start gaining back those female economic voters.
Women’s rights are cruicial to achieving economic fairness. But if you let it separate, you get a heat result of “Legal in most cases, 30 percent of the electorate, Terry plus 28. Illegal in most cases, 24 percent of the electorate, Youngkin plus 76 percent.
On to another point. I grew up in blue collar Texas and Missouri. Jefferson County, MO is ground zero for the drift away from Democrats among non-college whites. Let me tell you-a large portion of these people are idiot racists. Let me also tell you-a large portion are not. I grew up with some of them. Many smoke weed in secret, are largely live and let live, have a passion for unions and labor and mostly thought we should have been out of the middle east before President Obama left office.
Yes some of these people sit up at night dreaming of ways to subjugate persons of color. But that is not the whole story. Facebook and the Republicans and the Russians’ big magic act was not simply giving racists a platform to expose their ugly views, it was that it also convinced many Democratic strategists that this was the entire reason for the vote we have had drift from us. It isn’t that racists don’t exist, but it is that Republicans wants us to believe that the racist vote is the only vote they have gained.
They need us to believe these votes are lost for good.
Why is this so meaningful? There are those who say, “Trumpers are a lost cause.” True. But are all 67 percent of the non-college white electorate who voted for Trump in 2020 a lost cause? Consider this-If we had been able to move the non-college white vote just three points last year, just three, we would have added 2 percent to President Biden’s margin, or about 3 million votes, won North Carolina, flipped at least one or two more Senate seats (probably ME, almost certainly NC) and likely gained in the House.
Then we would have gained down ballot, increased majorities in blue states and not been faced with so many super majorities in red ones.
Want to take a guess how much 3 percent more with white non-college would have affected the Virginia outcome this year?
You are telling me a good candidate with a coherent message can’t peel off 3 percent? Of course it can be done.
And it isn’t that we can’t win head to head on the race issue. It is that the majority of the electorate, most any electorate, doesn’t get out to vote on it as a primary concern. So the Republicans don’t care if we mercilessly beat them on race if they are winning the biggest issue, which is almost always the economy.
This is not to say we should not fight for civil rights. We must fight for civil rights with every fiber of our souls.
But someday another smart politician will come along and explain that the same rotten system that keeps them in a dilapadated home is the same system that keeps people of color out of good paying jobs. Howard Dean tried to warn us, and John Edwards talked him down.
John was wrong.
The truth is the majority to win this country, and turn it permanently blue coast to coast is there for the taking.
We have to message that racial equality for all is the path to economic justice for all.
But also, until there is economic justice for all, there can be no racial equality.
Once again, we have to work on both systemic deficiencies simultaneously and as a unit.
Politics is ugly, and frustrating, and sometimes inexplicable. But in order to win in 2022 and beyond, we have to compete in red counties. We have reached the end of our demographic ceiling. We simply can’t lose 25 percent of the electorate by 49 points.
Nominate candidates willing to go outstate and make the play. “There is no progress for you without equality for them. Decide now if you hate them more than you love prosperity.” Then give them something, anything of value, to buy.
Understand this isn’t doing a dance or threading a needle. This isn’t offering some cheese and crackers, and crab dip, and finger sandwiches. This is one giant all in one pie.
Civil rights are key to the economy. Reproductive rights are key to the economy. We can bake a delicious pie called “The Economy” with all of these necessary, primary, and not in any way secondary ingredients in it. The fact is the economy is the pie the voters want to eat. That won’t change. But what can change is when they eat it and go, “Hmm, I taste some inner city investment in that, goes well with the minimum tax on billionaires.” Or, “That women’s reproductive freedom blends well with the investment in higher education.”
We would not be lowering our civil and women’s rights foundations of our platform in importance.
We would finally be creating a coherent, easily digestible, and marketable message about social justice being linked to economic justice.
You see a whole lot of progressives like me are going to wake up to the mess tone deaf centrists created by not listening, and not messaging. I am dreading the morning mourning, because it will be my flank’s fault according to “experts.” But we progressives have a recipe, kitchen tested and ready to distribute to precincts nationwide. Let’s box it, market it, and sell it.
Don’t punch progressives. Rather ask yourself why when you go to Arizona, or California, or blue coastal states there are fewer “black neighborhoods” or “white neighborhoods” and instead just “neighborhoods.” Ask yourself what pie is being served in blue states that creates more diversity and prosperity across demographics in the suburbs.
Ask yourself what blue states did differently than red states. Ask yourself what flavor of pie was being sold.
Then figure out how they sold it.
And do it fast, because the broader electorate is hungry and they are sick of crumbs.
They want a piece of a delicious pie.
Sell them one.
-ROC
I am weak, dealing with a stretch of fatigue I have been unable to pinpoint. We continue to monitor for cancer recurrence. This is the only living my health allows me to earn and I appreciate you. My newsletter is unaffected. Sign up here to subscribe! It publishes every Wednesday and is full of original reporting, laughs, and fun!
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Love,
-ROC