The post-mortem takes on what happened in Virginia are all over the place this morning, so here’s one more. Let me begin with some standard commentary.
Josh Marshall had some thoughts about what happened at Talking Points Memo (paywall — sorry) that are worth a look. He starts with something we need to keep in mind:
First and most prosaically, Virginia is not a blue state. It’s a swing state with a solid Democratic advantage. Going back twenty years, the governorship has been won by a member of the party that does not hold the White House. The one exception was in 2013 with, ironically, Terry McAulliffe. Don’t get me wrong. This isn’t excuse making. It’s setting expectations because it’s a state where a sharp shift in the national political environment is more than enough to push the state into the other column.
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The second is something we need to acknowledge: Biden’s popularity.
Which brings us to the real reason for this defeat: President Biden is unpopular. From the late summer into the fall his approval rating has dropped some ten points, a big and rapid drop in an era of highly polarized electorates. Why? A sour public mood about the economy driven largely by rising prices for basic commodities and shortages of various consumer goods. Then there’s COVID. President Biden ran on bringing the pandemic to heel. But that hasn’t happened. I’m not blaming Biden for that. A virus is a tough and unpredictable opponent. It’s just the fact of the situation. People want COVID to be over. But it’s not over. He’s the President. He takes a hit for that.
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On Covid, it’s worth reminding everyone that Republicans have done their best to sabotage Biden’s efforts to get the pandemic under control, while painting themselves as successful Covid warriors. Eric Boehlert looks at Ron DeSantis in Florida being painted as a hero despite 60,000 Floridians dead on his watch. Vaccines for children, mask mandates in schools have been turned into ‘controversial’ policies that infringe ‘freedom’ and ‘hurt children’ while interfering with parental rights.
It’s futile to point out how unpopular Trump was; that was then — this is now. There are things happening that Biden has little control over — but it doesn’t matter. He’s in charge — that makes him responsible as far as most people are concerned. It didn’t matter for Trump or the GOP; nothing is ever their fault.
Republicans respond to such things by scapegoating others. They are not reluctant to demonize convenient targets. (They do it pre-emptively — they're trying to give Harris the Hillary treatment.) When on defense: attack. They have an entire media machine to do it for them; Democrats have nothing comparable. (More on that below.)
Plus it’s not pretty to imagine how the anti-liberal mainstream media would react if they could accuse Biden of fostering division. They would report it as an increasing sign of desperation on the part of a failing administration. The stories practically write themselves. Much pearl-clutching would ensue.
The third is a problem that has no easy answer: the Strong Leader syndrome. Americans want a leader who can kick butt, take names, and magically solve every problem. Trump’s big achievement was convincing so many people that he was that kind of leader. (Having no shame and full-time rightwing media support makes that a lot easier.) Again from TPM:
Then there’s the other problem: President Biden looks weak. The pull out from Afghanistan plays some role in this. But the real driver is the months long spectacle of the President and his party unable to pass the basic legislation that makes up his agenda. Negotiating, begging, false starts, canceled votes. A President of the United States stymied by two obscure Senators the vast majority of Americans have never even heard of. Obviously this has deeply demoralized Democrats around the country – a fact which I think played a significant role in McAuliffe’s defeat. But for less committed voters – a smaller portion of the electorate but the floating segment that decides most elections – the President just looks weak. He says this and that is important but can’t seem to get this or that done. It’s through that prism that these voters view an uncertain economy. Regardless of what the President is trying to do, he can’t do it. If you’re not terribly ideological or plugged into the policy and legislative details what you see is a country beset with problems and an ineffective President. That’s a bad, bad combination for the President’s party.
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Short of Chuck Schumer finding a way to make Manchin and Sinema an offer they can’t refuse (if only!), Democrats are going to have to settle for what the 2 prima donnas will let them have, and declare victory. Instead of moaning about what has been left out — talk up what has been accomplished and how it makes life better for Americans at as personal a level as possible. Sell the brownies, not the ingredient list on the box.
The old question everyone in politics needs to be able to answer is “What have you done for me lately?” Biden and the rest of the Democrats need to deliver and be seen to deliver if they want credit for the leadership thing.
Or Biden could invade Grenada, send troops to the border, and fire up some trade wars — it’s easy when you’re shameless and need distractions. Drone strikes against terror threats — especially with all the scare talk about leaving Afghanistan making terror attacks more likely — are one too-easy way to rattle the saber and look ‘strong’. (As long as the targets ARE real ‘bad guys’ and not people in the wrong place at the wrong time.)
Also, THIS!!! You know, long-term efforts everywhere. You have to be in it to win it, as the saying goes.
Meanwhile…
All of the above is fairly “back to normal” conventional politics. But we aren’t back to normal. There are three things we need to keep in mind. (At least three.)
• THE FIRST is the continuing failure of the press. If you are not checking in with Eric Boehlert at Pressrun Media on a regular basis, you may not realize just how badly the mainstream media is at what is supposed to be its job. Take a quick look at the stories listed there and you’ll begin to grasp what liberal media bias really amounts to.
Looking for the Democrat’s cloud around every silver lining, ignoring the positives to play up the negatives, and ignoring the insanity on the right — that’s what the mainstream press does by reflex. The media’s ‘fair and balanced’ reporting… isn’t.
This is where they fall down again and again. Reporters think they are writing horserace stories that are devoid of any point of view and show no reflection of values and morals but they do. And that attitude trickles down to the public whether they know it or not.
The flip side of the coin is that Republicans have a media cheerleading section that amplifies their messaging and catapults the propaganda 24/7. Democrats have nothing comparable. That makes a huge difference, one the mainstream press habitually discounts. Compare all the concerned words about Facebook’s negative effects with the free pass Fox News has been getting for years.
• THE SECOND is what’s going on in plain sight: the undermining of democracy at every level by the Republican Party.
Republicans are still in total fealty to Trump and Trumpism; the Big Lie is an article of faith that has metastasized into this dogma:
When Republicans lose an election, it is because it was rigged. When Republicans win, it was because they kept Democrats from stealing the election. Q.E.D. Republicans are the only legitimate party in America. (That last claim is one they have been making for decades.)
They are passing laws at the state level to be able to decide elections on a partisan basis. They have packed the Supreme Court with activist judges and filled the judiciary with them. They’ve already gotten Supreme Court decisions that destroyed union political power, overturned voting protections, and opened the floodgates for dark money in politics. They’re now getting ready to overturn Roe v. Wade and anything else that forwards the conservative anti-democratic agenda.
More seriously, we are learning that what happened on January 6 was NOT spontaneous. It was planned, it involved people in the White House all the way up to Trump and elsewhere in government — and they have taken notes for the next time to make sure they succeed.
From the response to vaccine mandates, we have learned how many in the police across America are right wing ideologues. (The ones who were in the mob on January 6 were a big clue.) Former General Mike Flynn should have us wondering what else is lurking in the military.
We are facing a slow motion coup, an unacknowledged civil war. It has been underway for decades. This is what the end stage of the Reagan Revolution looks like. This is late stage capitalism. This is the legacy of the Civil War and the “Lost Cause” myth.
The press seems oblivious to it; the Democratic Party seems unable to come up with an effective response…so far. Get some bills through Congress and see what happens.
• THIRD There are a lot of advantages to living in a globalized economy. There are a lot of disadvantages as well. We have constructed a civilization with global reach — but have yet to demonstrate we can manage it effectively and sustainably while also improving the human condition.
The collapse of America into some kind of 21st Century Trumpist-Fascist oligarchy would be bad news at any time. Given the increasingly dire climate picture, the fall of the Democrats from power in America would be a global catastrophe — because if there is one thing Republicans have demonstrated, they can always make things worse, and climate is not the only challenge facing the world.
No pressure, right?
Wednesday, Nov 3, 2021 · 5:38:57 PM +00:00 · xaxnar
UPDATE: Just got this in an email from Governor Tony Evers in Wisconsin. It’s a reminder that winning is possible, and winning at all levels can make a difference. Here’s the quote:
While last night’s headline-grabbing election results weren’t what we wanted to see, I want to make sure you heard about our major victories in Wisconsin.
In response to school boards following my example by listening to medical experts and implementing safety measures, Republicans launched four recall campaigns to try to replace school board members. Even Rebecca Kleefisch and her allies went all in for these candidates — knocking doors and directing money to fund these divisive campaigns.
I’m thrilled to be able to tell you that all four of these Republican-backed recall campaigns were defeated! These results are a clear rejection of Republicans using our children’s safety as a political pawn, and I couldn’t be more proud. Here in Wisconsin, the Republican playbook failed.
What we are doing in Wisconsin is working because we continue to focus on the issues that matter. However, last night also showed that Republicans are willing to do anything to take back power, and we need to be ready in 2022.