The UK government has raised the COVID-19 Alert Level from 3 to 4 (5 is the highest), citing the growing spread of the Omicron variant in the population. Omicron cases are doubling every 2-3 days. 2 doses of vaccine are not protective enough to prevent infection.
Here is the updated risk assessment of Omicron from the UK. The only uncertainty left is the severity level of the disease caused by Omicron; that assessment will require more time and data and measurements of hospitalizations, deaths and ICU usage broken down by patient demographics, medical conditions and vaccination+prior-infection status.
England’s NHS is already under severe workload pressure (so are hospitals and staff in this country); this new “tidal” wave during the holiday season will make things much worse. Now it seems to be a race between Omicron and booster shots.
Some more studies
For those who think that prior infection protects against Omicron, the data shows otherwise. Send this to your favorite Republican Senator.
As we saw in earlier studies, 3 doses is protective; 2 doses + infection is even better. Even 2 doses helps prevent severe infection. Another lab study shown below reinforces these findings.
Is Omicron mild?
This seems to be the topic of hot debate between scientists and the non-scientist community. Many are relying on reports that the number of cases of severe disease in South Africa were not ramping up as fast as the number of Omicron cases. There are many possible reasons for this including the fact that severe disease is reduced among the vaccinated and among those with prior infections. We saw that pattern with the arrival of Delta as well.
Also, nothing in any of the lab studies of the 50+ mutations in the Omicron virus indicates that Omicron will turn out to be mild. Erring on the side of caution is a prudent public health strategy.
Plus, there is this factor that most of the cases in S. Africa are among the young, who tend to have less serious illness. Keep in mind that in all previous waves, death rates were dominated by those in higher age groups and those with certain medical conditions.
Omicron case growth
From newsnodes.com/…, the total number of confirmed Omicron cases around the world = 11,361 in 76 countries, in the U.S. = 159. A week ago, the worldwide Omicron confirmed case count was 1,087 in 49 countries.
UK — total cases are approaching last winter’s peak. Number of Omicron cases = 3,137 so far.
Denmark, which does an exemplary job of sequencing COVID-19 cases, is also seeing Omicron cases rise exponentially, as predicted by scientists -
The growth rate of Omicron is high and similar in many countries, including the U.S. Rt = 3.0 for the U.S. is alarming, given that the current average Rt with Delta in the U.S. is around 1.1, although there are significant differences across states.
Epilogue
There is a lot of misinformation on social media that Omicron is mild or that the pandemic will end when everyone gets infected by Omicron and Delta is driven out. My humble advise to everyone is to follow reliable sources and scientists, look for multiple sources that corroborate stories and avoid following individual “experts” that post opinions on TV and social media. Also avoid the temptation to make your own predictions and get too deeply invested in it; allow for the possibility that there are multiple outcomes with different probabilities and these probabilities will evolve as more data comes in.
There is a lot we do not know about Omicron, but that does not mean that scientists know nothing. Scientists are studying Omicron 24x7, at a speed unprecedented in medical history. Scientists and public health experts have to make judgment calls and decisions based on incomplete information and uncertainties; the projections and recommendations will change as they learn more.
Meanwhile we all know the drill — stay informed and vigilant, get the booster shot, mask, social distance, and encourage others to do so. And keep fighting against the right-wing disinformation campaign.
Please check out these other diaries for more in-depth info. on Omicron —