Today, I am going to be looking at three more Texas house districts: HD 70, HD 63, and HD 65, all of which are located in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.
TX HD 70
Note: I also discussed this district in a previous post on HDs 66 and HD 67.
TX HD 70 is based in Collin County. Currently, HD 70 is a reliably Republican district located in the northern-central part of the county, overlapping with much of the new HD 61, which the Democrats aren’t contesting this cycle. However, for 2022, HD 70 has been redrawn to be somewhat of a Democratic-vote sink in the southwestern corner of the county to shore up the Republican incumbents in HD 66 and HD 67, both of which were previously competitive. (The new HDs 66 and 67 both also take in portions of the existing HD 70.) Under the new boundaries, Joe Biden would have carried HD 70 by a fairly decent 11-point margin, though the district would have been redder historically, with Donald Trump narrowly carrying it by a percentage point in 2016 and Mitt Romney carrying it by about 20 points back in 2012. In addition, the new HD 70 also seems to be quite a bit redder down-ballot, with Dem MJ Hegar narrowly carrying it by less than 3 points in the 2020 U.S. Senate Race. The seat is also open this cycle, with no incumbent living in the new district. Outside of HD 92, which as discussed in a previous article is virtually guaranteed to flip to the Dems, HD 70 is probably the Democrats’ best (and one of their only) pick-up opportunities, given Biden’s strong margin and the favorable trends in the district. Still, given that the district seems to be redder down-ballot and that 2022 will be a Biden midterm, it still seems conceivable for the GOP to hold onto the seat, this cycle (though the Dems should be favored to eventually flip it sometime in the future). Therefore, I’m classifying the district as a Toss Up. At least three Republican candidates are running for this seat: Ladale Buggs, Jolly Jamee, and Hayden Padgett, while the Democrat candidates include Mihaela Elizabeth Plesa and possibly Lorenzo Sanchez, who was the 2020 Dem nominee for HD 67. (Sanchez doesn’t appear to have officially filed but does has a campaign website and an active HD 70 twitter account.)
HD 63, HD 65
Note: I chose to discuss these two seats simultaneously, as they are neighboring districts and will take in each other’s territory, post-redistricting.
HD 63 and HD 65 are located in Denton County, which is west of Collin County. Currently, HD 63 is located in southwestern part of the county and leans heavily Republican, having supported Trump by about 24 points in 2020 (though this is still over 10 points worse than his 2016 margin), while HD 65 is located in the southeastern corner of the county and is trending blue fairly rapidly, with most of the Democratic strength in the district coming from the community of Lewisville. Specifically, HD 65 went from supporting Romney by almost 17 points to supporting Trump by about just 2 points in 2016 to supporting Biden by between 10 and 11 points. The Dems have also made gains at the state house level in the district, with Dem Michelle Beckley, the current incumbent, flipping the seat in 2018, as she defeated then incumbent Republican Ron Simmons (who had previously won by double digits) by about 2.5 points. Unfortunately for 2022, the Republicans have gerrymandered this region (so that they can gain an additional seat), with HD 65 now extending to the county’s western border, taking in much of the deep red territory from the current HD 63, while a greater portion of Lewisville and nearby communities (from the current HD 65) are moved into the new HD 63. As a result, HD 65 becomes considerably redder under the new boundaries, as it would have supported Trump by about 8 points in 2020, though this is still considerably lower than his 19-point margin in the district from 2016, so the trends still seem to be somewhat favorable to Dems. On the other hand, HD 63 is now more competitive under the new boundaries (and is actually slightly less red than the new HD 65), having gone for Trump by between 5 and 6 points in 2020. Interestingly, both of these seats are open this cycle, with Beckley (who was drawn into the new HD 63) instead running for Lieutenant Governor, and Tan Parker, the current Republican incumbent in HD 63, instead running for Senate District 12. For 2022, I’m classifying both HD 63 and HD 65 as Likely Republican, which means the Republicans have a fairly easy pick-up opportunity. With the districts being Trump (2020) seats, the GOP should be heavily favored to win them, but they still have some potential to be competitive, given, again, the favorable trends to Dems and the lack of an incumbent. In HD 63, there is one Democrat running, Denise Wooten, and four Republicans running: Ben Bumgarner, Nick Sanders, Jeff Younger, and Jake Collier. In HD 65, there are three Republicans running: Kronda Thimesch (who was the 2020 GOP nominee for the seat), Peyton Inge, and Robert Cooksey, and one Democrat running, Brittney Verdell.
Thanks to Texas Legislative Council (for the statewide/presidential election results under the new boundaries, as well as the 2020 statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), New York Times (for precinct-level data), Patrick Svitek/Texas Secretary of State website (for 2022 candidate list).