Enemy at the Gates: hybrid warfare may get its fullest expression soon, likely with a cyber attack leading the charge, supported by another land war in Eurasia.
Seven years ago, in what Ukrainians call the Revolution of Dignity, the people of Ukraine stood up to their Russian-backed leaders and made a conscious decision to turn to the West.
Ukrainians chose a free, democratic and independent future. Today, that yearning for freedom is even more pronounced. Recent surveys show strong support among Ukrainians — especially youths — for joining the European Union and NATO.
This is despite unrelenting attempts by Russia to undermine Ukrainian democracy through disinformation and military intimidation, including the illegal annexation of Crimea.
Moscow would have the world believe that Russia is merely trying to shore up its border against a threat from Ukraine and NATO. This argument has no merit. Ukraine’s military posture has always been purely defensive in nature. Unlike Russia, Ukraine has upheld its commitments under the Minsk agreements between Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which were designed to ensure a cease-fire in Donbas.
Russia has shown its intent to violate its international commitments by demanding NATO cease expanding to sovereign countries that wish to join, and calling for Ukraine to grant more of its sovereign territory to Russia.
The Biden administration has placed diplomacy at the forefront of its efforts to deter Russia. However, these efforts must be combined with the necessary economic and military measures that would strengthen a diplomatic approach and give it greater credibility.
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The GOP’s favorite ex-Soviet
Ordinary Americans should take no solace in their country’s missile defense systems, which don’t have the numbers to fend off a blizzard of Russian nukes, nor really the capabilities. At last count, since 2001, US intercept flight tests have been successful in ninety-two of 112 attempts, which would mean an awful lot of nuclear bombs dropping on US towns and cities should the worst ever happen. It’s a cliché that there are no winners in a nuclear war, but it’s also true.
While any conflict with Russia over Ukraine would attempt to avoid this scenario, given that errors and false alarms have nearly led to catastrophe even in times of relative peace — and given that Washington and Moscow lack the institutional mechanisms of the Cold War that were used to prevent things from spiraling out of control — armed conflict by its very nature risks taking us to this unspeakable point.
This would be an unconscionable gamble in any scenario but especially in this context. Putin is acting, albeit very illiberally, to secure Russia’s borders against what is, to him, an eminently plausible threat; the United States has no obligation to defend Ukraine, a country nine thousand miles away that isn’t in NATO; and there’s no guarantee any invasion would even go particularly well for Putin, instead of ending up like one of the many quagmires the United States has gotten itself in over the past two decades. A war over Ukraine would simply be madness.
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